Structural manifestation of the delocalization error of density functional approximations: C(4N+2) rings and C(20) bowl, cage, and ring isomers.

The ground state structure of C(4N+2) rings is believed to exhibit a geometric transition from angle alternation (N < or = 2) to bond alternation (N > 2). All previous density functional theory (DFT) studies on these molecules have failed to reproduce this behavior by predicting either that the transition occurs at too large a ring size, or that the transition leads to a higher symmetry cumulene. Employing the recently proposed perspective of delocalization error within DFT we rationalize this failure of common density functional approximations (DFAs) and present calculations with the rCAM-B3LYP exchange-correlation functional that show an angle-to-bond-alternation transition between C(10) and C(14). The behavior exemplified here manifests itself more generally as the well known tendency of DFAs to bias toward delocalized electron distributions as favored by Huckel aromaticity, of which the C(4N+2) rings provide a quintessential example. Additional examples are the relative energies of the C(20) bowl, cage, and ring isomers; we show that the results from functionals with minimal delocalization error are in good agreement with CCSD(T) results, in contrast to other commonly used DFAs. An unbiased DFT treatment of electron delocalization is a key for reliable prediction of relative stability and hence the structures of complex molecules where many structure stabilization mechanisms exist.

Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

No-Holdback allocation rules for continuous-time assemble-to-order systems

This paper analyzes a class of common-component allocation rules, termed no-holdback (NHB) rules, in continuous-review assemble-to-order (ATO) systems with positive lead times. The inventory of each component is replenished following an independent base-stock policy. In contrast to the usually assumed first-come-first-served (FCFS) component allocation rule in the literature, an NHB rule allocates a component to a product demand only if it will yield immediate fulfillment of that demand. We identify metrics as well as cost and product structures under which NHB rules outperform all other component allocation rules. For systems with certain product structures, we obtain key performance expressions and compare them to those under FCFS. For general product structures, we present performance bounds and approximations. Finally, we discuss the applicability of these results to more general ATO systems. © 2010 INFORMS.

Construction of invisibility cloaks of arbitrary shape and size using planar layers of metamaterials

Transformation optics (TO) is a powerful tool for the design of electromagnetic and optical devices with novel functionality derived from the unusual properties of the transformation media. In general, the fabrication of TO media is challenging, requiring spatially varying material properties with both anisotropic electric and magnetic responses. Though metamaterials have been proposed as a path for achieving such complex media, the required properties arising from the most general transformations remain elusive, and cannot implemented by state-of-the-art fabrication techniques. Here, we propose faceted approximations of TO media of arbitrary shape in which the volume of the TO device is divided into flat metamaterial layers. These layers can be readily implemented by standard fabrication and stacking techniques. We illustrate our approximation approach for the specific example of a two-dimensional, omnidirectional "invisibility cloak", and quantify its performance using the total scattering cross section as a practical figure of merit. © 2012 American Institute of Physics.

Bayesian Inference in Large-scale Problems

Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.

Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.

One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.

Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.

Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.

The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.

Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.

A Comparative Review of Computational Methods as Applied to Gold(I) Complexes and Mechanisms

In the last two decades, the field of homogeneous gold catalysis has been

extremely active, growing at a rapid pace. Another rapidly-growing field—that of

computational chemistry—has often been applied to the investigation of various gold-

catalyzed reaction mechanisms. Unfortunately, a number of recent mechanistic studies

have utilized computational methods that have been shown to be inappropriate and

inaccurate in their description of gold chemistry. This work presents an overview of

available computational methods with a focus on the approximations and limitations

inherent in each, and offers a review of experimentally-characterized gold(I) complexes

and proposed mechanisms as compared with their computationally-modeled

counterparts. No aim is made to identify a “recommended” computational method for

investigations of gold catalysis; rather, discrepancies between experimentally and

computationally obtained values are highlighted, and the systematic errors between

different computational methods are discussed.

Spectral sensitivity, spatial resolution and temporal resolution and their implications for conspecific signalling in cleaner shrimp.

Cleaner shrimp (Decapoda) regularly interact with conspecifics and client reef fish, both of which appear colourful and finely patterned to human observers. However, whether cleaner shrimp can perceive the colour patterns of conspecifics and clients is unknown, because cleaner shrimp visual capabilities are unstudied. We quantified spectral sensitivity and temporal resolution using electroretinography (ERG), and spatial resolution using both morphological (inter-ommatidial angle) and behavioural (optomotor) methods in three cleaner shrimp species: Lysmata amboinensis, Ancylomenes pedersoni and Urocaridella antonbruunii. In all three species, we found strong evidence for only a single spectral sensitivity peak of (mean ± s.e.m.) 518 ± 5, 518 ± 2 and 533 ± 3 nm, respectively. Temporal resolution in dark-adapted eyes was 39 ± 1.3, 36 ± 0.6 and 34 ± 1.3 Hz. Spatial resolution was 9.9 ± 0.3, 8.3 ± 0.1 and 11 ± 0.5 deg, respectively, which is low compared with other compound eyes of similar size. Assuming monochromacy, we present approximations of cleaner shrimp perception of both conspecifics and clients, and show that cleaner shrimp visual capabilities are sufficient to detect the outlines of large stimuli, but not to detect the colour patterns of conspecifics or clients, even over short distances. Thus, conspecific viewers have probably not played a role in the evolution of cleaner shrimp appearance; rather, further studies should investigate whether cleaner shrimp colour patterns have evolved to be viewed by client reef fish, many of which possess tri- and tetra-chromatic colour vision and relatively high spatial acuity.