A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets

Assuming that daily spot exchange rates follow a martingale process, we derive the implied time series process for the vector of 30-day forward rate forecast errors from using weekly data. The conditional second moment matrix of this vector is modelled as a multivariate generalized ARCH process. The estimated model is used to test the hypothesis that the risk premium is a linear function of the conditional variances and covariances as suggested by the standard asset pricing theory literature. Little supportt is found for this theory; instead lagged changes in the forward rate appear to be correlated with the 'risk premium.'. © 1990.

Developing drugs for developing countries.

Infectious and parasitic diseases create enormous health burdens, but because most of the people suffering from these diseases are poor, little is invested in developing treatments. We propose that developers of treatments for neglected diseases receive a "priority review voucher." The voucher could save an average of one year of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) review and be sold by the developer to the manufacturer of a blockbuster drug. In a well-functioning market, the voucher would speed access to highly valued treatments. Thus, the voucher could benefit consumers in both developing and developed countries at relatively low cost to the taxpayer.

Modulation of bacterial outer membrane vesicle production by envelope structure and content.

BACKGROUND: Vesiculation is a ubiquitous secretion process of Gram-negative bacteria, where outer membrane vesicles (OMVs) are small spherical particles on the order of 50 to 250 nm composed of outer membrane (OM) and lumenal periplasmic content. Vesicle functions have been elucidated in some detail, showing their importance in virulence factor secretion, bacterial survival, and biofilm formation in pathogenesis. Furthermore, OMVs serve as an envelope stress response, protecting the secreting bacteria from internal protein misfolding stress, as well as external envelope stressors. Despite their important functional roles very little is known about the regulation and mechanism of vesicle production. Based on the envelope architecture and prior characterization of the hypervesiculation phenotypes for mutants lacking the lipoprotein, Lpp, which is involved in the covalent OM-peptidoglycan (PG) crosslinks, it is expected that an inverse relationship exists between OMV production and PG-crosslinked Lpp. RESULTS: In this study, we found that subtle modifications of PG remodeling and crosslinking modulate OMV production, inversely correlating with bound Lpp levels. However, this inverse relationship was not found in strains in which OMV production is driven by an increase in "periplasmic pressure" resulting from the accumulation of protein, PG fragments, or lipopolysaccharide. In addition, the characterization of an nlpA deletion in backgrounds lacking either Lpp- or OmpA-mediated envelope crosslinks demonstrated a novel role for NlpA in envelope architecture. CONCLUSIONS: From this work, we conclude that OMV production can be driven by distinct Lpp concentration-dependent and Lpp concentration-independent pathways.

Plasma miRNAs as early biomarkers for detecting hepatocellular carcinoma.

The early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) presents a challenge because of the lack of specific biomarkers. Serum/plasma microRNAs (miRNAs) can discriminate HCC patients from controls. We aimed to identify and evaluate HCC-associated plasma miRNAs originating from the liver as early biomarkers for detecting HCC. In this multicenter three-phase study, we first performed screening using both plasma (HCC before and after liver transplantation or liver hepatectomy) and tissue samples (HCC, para-carcinoma and cirrhotic tissues). Then, we evaluated the diagnostic potential of the miRNAs in two case-control studies (training and validation sets). Finally, we used two prospective cohorts to test the potential of the identified miRNAs for the early detection of HCC. During the screening phase, we identified ten miRNAs, eight of which (miR-20a-5p, miR-25-3p, miR-30a-5p, miR-92a-3p, miR-132-3p, miR-185-5p, miR-320a and miR-324-3p) were significantly overexpressed in the HBV-positive HCC patients compared with the HBV-positive cancer-free controls in both the training and validation sets, with a sensitivity of 0.866 and specificity of 0.646. Furthermore, we assessed the potential for early HCC detection of these eight newly identified miRNAs and three previously reported miRNAs (miR-192-5p, miR-21-5p and miR-375) in two prospective cohorts. Our meta-analysis revealed that four miRNAs (miR-20a-5p, miR-320a, miR-324-3p and miR-375) could be used as preclinical biomarkers (pmeta  < 0.05) for HCC. The expression profile of the eight-miRNA panel can be used to discriminate HCC patients from cancer-free controls, and the four-miRNA panel (alone or combined with AFP) could be a blood-based early detection biomarker for HCC screening.

Polymorphisms in the kinesin-like factor 1 B gene and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer in Eastern Chinese women.

The kinesin-like factor 1 B (KIF1B) gene plays an important role in the process of apoptosis and the transformation and progression of malignant cells. Genetic variations in KIF1B may contribute to risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). In this study of 1,324 EOC patients and 1,386 cancer-free female controls, we investigated associations between two potentially functional single nucleotide polymorphisms in KIF1B and EOC risk by the conditional logistic regression analysis. General linear regression model was used to evaluate the correlation between the number of variant alleles and KIF1B mRNA expression levels. We found that the rs17401966 variant AG/GG genotypes were significantly associated with a decreased risk of EOC (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 0.68-0.97), compared with the AA genotype, but no associations were observed for rs1002076. Women who carried both rs17401966 AG/GG and rs1002076 AG/AA genotypes of KIF1B had a 0.82-fold decreased risk (adjusted 95 % CI = 0.69-0.97), compared with others. Additionally, there was no evidence of possible interactions between about-mentioned co-variants. Further genotype-phenotype correlation analysis indicated that the number of rs17401966 variant G allele was significantly associated with KIF1B mRNA expression levels (P for GLM = 0.003 and 0.001 in all and Chinese subjects, respectively), with GG carriers having the lowest level of KIF1B mRNA expression. Taken together, the rs17401966 polymorphism likely regulates KIF1B mRNA expression and thus may be associated with EOC risk in Eastern Chinese women. Larger, independent studies are warranted to validate our findings.

Similar prevalence and magnitude of auditory-evoked and visually evoked activity in the frontal eye fields: implications for multisensory motor control.

Saccadic eye movements can be elicited by more than one type of sensory stimulus. This implies substantial transformations of signals originating in different sense organs as they reach a common motor output pathway. In this study, we compared the prevalence and magnitude of auditory- and visually evoked activity in a structure implicated in oculomotor processing, the primate frontal eye fields (FEF). We recorded from 324 single neurons while 2 monkeys performed delayed saccades to visual or auditory targets. We found that 64% of FEF neurons were active on presentation of auditory targets and 87% were active during auditory-guided saccades, compared with 75 and 84% for visual targets and saccades. As saccade onset approached, the average level of population activity in the FEF became indistinguishable on visual and auditory trials. FEF activity was better correlated with the movement vector than with the target location for both modalities. In summary, the large proportion of auditory-responsive neurons in the FEF, the similarity between visual and auditory activity levels at the time of the saccade, and the strong correlation between the activity and the saccade vector suggest that auditory signals undergo tailoring to match roughly the strength of visual signals present in the FEF, facilitating accessing of a common motor output pathway.