Sequential anomaly detection in the presence of noise and limited feedback

This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: 1) filtering, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each successive measurement based upon our ability to predict it from previous noisy observations and 2) hedging, or flagging potential anomalies by comparing the current belief against a time-varying and data-adaptive threshold. The threshold is adjusted based on the available feedback from an end user. Our algorithms, which combine universal prediction with recent work on online convex programming, do not require computing posterior distributions given all current observations and involve simple primal-dual parameter updates. At the heart of the proposed approach lie exponential-family models which can be used in a wide variety of contexts and applications, and which yield methods that achieve sublinear per-round regret against both static and slowly varying product distributions with marginals drawn from the same exponential family. Moreover, the regret against static distributions coincides with the minimax value of the corresponding online strongly convex game. We also prove bounds on the number of mistakes made during the hedging step relative to the best offline choice of the threshold with access to all estimated beliefs and feedback signals. We validate the theory on synthetic data drawn from a time-varying distribution over binary vectors of high dimensionality, as well as on the Enron email dataset. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

NMR methods for characterizing the pore structures and hydrogen storage properties of microporous carbons.

(1)H NMR spectroscopy is used to investigate a series of microporous activated carbons derived from a poly(ether ether ketone) (PEEK) precursor with varying amounts of burnoff (BO). In particular, properties relevant to hydrogen storage are evaluated such as pore structure, average pore size, uptake, and binding energy. High-pressure NMR with in situ H(2) loading is employed with H(2) pressure ranging from 100 Pa to 10 MPa. An N(2)-cooled cryostat allows for NMR isotherm measurements at both room temperature ( approximately 290 K) and 100 K. Two distinct (1)H NMR peaks appear in the spectra which represent the gaseous H(2) in intergranular pores and the H(2) residing in micropores. The chemical shift of the micropore peak is observed to evolve with changing pressure, the magnitude of this effect being correlated to the amount of BO and therefore the structure. This is attributed to the different pressure dependence of the amount of adsorbed and non-adsorbed molecules within micropores, which experience significantly different chemical shifts due to the strong distance dependence of the ring current effect. In pores with a critical diameter of 1.2 nm or less, no pressure dependence is observed because they are not wide enough to host non-adsorbed molecules; this is the case for samples with less than 35% BO. The largest estimated pore size that can contribute to the micropore peak is estimated to be around 2.4 nm. The total H(2) uptake associated with pores of this size or smaller is evaluated via a calibration of the isotherms, with the highest amount being observed at 59% BO. Two binding energies are present in the micropores, with the lower, more dominant one being on the order of 5 kJ mol(-1) and the higher one ranging from 7 to 9 kJ mol(-1).

Early versus delayed fixed dose combination abacavir/lamivudine/zidovudine in patients with HIV and tuberculosis in Tanzania.

Fixed dose combination abacavir/lamivudine/zidovudine (ABC/3TC/ZDV) among HIV-1 and tuberculosis (TB)-coinfected patients was evaluated and outcomes between early vs. delayed initiation were compared. In a randomized, pilot study conducted in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania, HIV-infected inpatients with smear-positive TB and total lymphocyte count <1200/mm(3) were randomized to initiate ABC/3TC/ZDV either 2 (early) or 8 (delayed) weeks after commencing antituberculosis therapy and were followed for 104 weeks. Of 94 patients screened, 70 enrolled (41% female, median CD4 count 103 cells/mm(3)), and 33 in each group completed 104 weeks. Two deaths and 12 serious adverse events (SAEs) were observed in the early arm vs. one death, one clinical failure, and seven SAEs in the delayed arm (p = 0.6012 for time to first grade 3/4 event, SAE, or death). CD4 cell increases were +331 and +328 cells/mm(3), respectively. TB-immune reconstitution inflammatory syndromes (TB-IRIS) were not observed in any subject. Using intent-to-treat (ITT), missing = failure analyses, 74% (26/35) vs. 89% (31/35) randomized to early vs. delayed therapy had HIV RNA levels <400 copies/ml at 104 weeks (p = 0.2182) and 66% (23/35) vs. 74% (26/35), respectively, had HIV RNA levels <50 copies/ml (p = 0.6026). In an analysis in which switches from ABC/3TC/ZDV = failure, those receiving early therapy were less likely to be suppressed to <400 copies/ml [60% (21/35) vs. 86% (30/35), p = 0.030]. TB-IRIS was not observed among the 70 coinfected subjects beginning antiretroviral treatment. ABC/3TC/ZDV was well tolerated and resulted in steady immunologic improvement. Rates of virologic suppression were similar between early and delayed treatment strategies with triple nucleoside regimens when substitutions were allowed.

An approach to the study of G-protein-coupled receptor kinases: an in vitro-purified membrane assay reveals differential receptor specificity and regulation by G beta gamma subunits.

Phosphorylation of GTP-binding-regulatory (G)-protein-coupled receptors by specific G-protein-coupled receptor kinases (GRKs) is a major mechanism responsible for agonist-mediated desensitization of signal transduction processes. However, to date, studies of the specificity of these enzymes have been hampered by the difficulty of preparing the purified and reconstituted receptor preparations required as substrates. Here we describe an approach that obviates this problem by utilizing highly purified membrane preparations from Sf9 and 293 cells overexpressing G-protein-coupled receptors. We use this technique to demonstrate specificity of several GRKs with respect to both receptor substrates and the enhancing effects of G-protein beta gamma subunits on phosphorylation. Enriched membrane preparations of the beta 2- and alpha 2-C2-adrenergic receptors (ARs, where alpha 2-C2-AR refers to the AR whose gene is located on human chromosome 2) prepared by sucrose density gradient centrifugation from Sf9 or 293 cells contain the receptor at 100-300 pmol/mg of protein and serve as efficient substrates for agonist-dependent phosphorylation by beta-AR kinase 1 (GRK2), beta-AR kinase 2 (GRK3), or GRK5. Stoichiometries of agonist-mediated phosphorylation of the receptors by GRK2 (beta-AR kinase 1), in the absence and presence of G beta gamma, are 1 and 3 mol/mol, respectively. The rate of phosphorylation of the membrane receptors is 3 times faster than that of purified and reconstituted receptors. While phosphorylation of the beta 2-AR by GRK2, -3, and -5 is similar, the activity of GRK2 and -3 is enhanced by G beta gamma whereas that of GRK5 is not. In contrast, whereas GRK2 and -3 efficiently phosphorylate alpha 2-C2-AR, GRK5 is quite weak. The availability of a simple direct phosphorylation assay applicable to any cloned G-protein-coupled receptor should greatly facilitate elucidation of the mechanisms of regulation of these receptors by the expanding family of GRKs.

An evaluation of physician predictions of discharge on a general medicine service.

The goal of this study was to evaluate general medicine physicians' ability to predict hospital discharge. We prospectively asked study subjects to predict whether each patient under their care would be discharged on the next day, on the same day, or neither. Discharge predictions were recorded at 3 time points: mornings (7-9 am), midday (12-2 pm), or afternoons (5-7 pm), for a total of 2641 predictions. For predictions of next-day discharge, the sensitivity (SN) and positive predictive value (PPV) were lowest in the morning (27% and 33%, respectively), but increased by the afternoon (SN 67%, PPV 69%). Similarly, for same-day discharge predictions, SN and PPV were highest at midday (88% and 79%, respectively). We found that although physicians have difficulty predicting next-day discharges in the morning prior to the day of expected discharge, their ability to correctly predict discharges continually improved as the time to actual discharge decreased. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2015;10:808-810. © 2015 Society of Hospital Medicine.

Criminally Involved Parents Who Misuse Substances and Children’s Odds of Being Arrested as a Young Adult: Do Drug Treatment Courts Mitigate the Risk?

© 2016, Springer Science+Business Media New York.This paper examined (1) the association between parents who are convicted of a substance-related offense and their children’s probability of being arrested as a young adult and (2) whether or not parental participation in an adult drug treatment court program mitigated this risk. The analysis relied on state administrative data from North Carolina courts (2005–2013) and from birth records (1988–2003). The dependent variable was the probability that a child was arrested as a young adult (16–21). Logistic regression was used to compare groups and models accounted for the clustering of multiple children with the same mother. Findings revealed that children whose parents were convicted on either a substance-related charge on a non-substance-related charge had twice the odds of being arrested as young adult, relative to children whose parents had not been observed having a conviction. While a quarter of children whose parents participated in a drug treatment court program were arrested as young adults, parental completion this program did not reduce this risk. In conclusion, children whose parents were convicted had an increased risk of being arrested as young adults, irrespective of whether or not the conviction was on a substance-related charge. However, drug treatment courts did not reduce this risk. Reducing intergenerational links in the probability of arrest remains a societal challenge.