A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets

Assuming that daily spot exchange rates follow a martingale process, we derive the implied time series process for the vector of 30-day forward rate forecast errors from using weekly data. The conditional second moment matrix of this vector is modelled as a multivariate generalized ARCH process. The estimated model is used to test the hypothesis that the risk premium is a linear function of the conditional variances and covariances as suggested by the standard asset pricing theory literature. Little supportt is found for this theory; instead lagged changes in the forward rate appear to be correlated with the 'risk premium.'. © 1990.

Adjunctive albuterol enhances the response to enzyme replacement therapy in late-onset Pompe disease.

Effective dosages for enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) in Pompe disease are much higher than for other lysosomal storage disorders, which has been attributed to low cation-independent mannose-6-phosphate receptor (CI-MPR) in skeletal muscle. We have previously demonstrated the benefit of increased CI-MPR-mediated uptake of recombinant human acid-α-glucosidase during ERT in mice with Pompe disease following addition of albuterol therapy. Currently we have completed a pilot study of albuterol in patients with late-onset Pompe disease already on ERT for >2 yr, who were not improving further. The 6-min walk test (6MWT) distance increased in all 7 subjects at wk 6 (30±13 m; P=0.002), wk 12 (34±14 m; P=0.004), and wk 24 (42±37 m; P=0.02), in comparison with baseline. Grip strength was improved significantly for both hands at wk 12. Furthermore, individual subjects reported benefits; e.g., a female patient could stand up from sitting on the floor much more easily (time for supine to standing position decreased from 30 to 11 s), and a male patient could readily swing his legs out of his van seat (hip abduction increased from 1 to 2+ on manual muscle testing). Finally, analysis of the quadriceps biopsies suggested increased CI-MPR at wk 12 (P=0.08), compared with baseline. With the exception of 1 patient who succumbed to respiratory complications of Pompe disease in the first week, only mild adverse events have been reported, including tremor, transient difficulty falling asleep, and mild urinary retention (requiring early morning voiding). Therefore, this pilot study revealed initial safety and efficacy in an open label study of adjunctive albuterol therapy in patients with late-onset Pompe disease who had been stable on ERT with no improvements noted over the previous several years.

Pitit se rìches malere [Children are the wealth of the poor]: The Influence of Gender and Power on Choice and Uptake of Long Acting Contraceptives

Background: Haiti has the highest maternal mortality rate in the Latin American and Caribbean region. Despite the fact that Haiti has received twice as much family planning assistance as any other country in the western hemisphere, the unmet need for contraception remains particularly high. Our hypothesis is that unsuccessful efforts of family planning programs may be related to a misconstrued understanding of the complex role of gender in relationships and community in Haiti. This manuscript is one of four parts of a study that intends to examine some of these issues with a particular focus on the influence of uptake and adherence to long acting contraceptive (LAC) methods.

Methods: We conducted a three-month community-based qualitative assessment through 20 in-depth interviews in Fondwa, Haiti. Participants were divided into 4 groups of five: female users, female non-users, men and key community stakeholders.

Results: Based on the qualitative interviews, we found that main barriers included lack of access to family planning education and services and concerns regarding side effects and health risks, especially related to menstrual disruption and fears of infertility. Women have a constant pressure to remain fertile and bear children, due not only to social but also economic needs. As relationships are conceived as means for economic provision, the likelihood of uptake of irreversible methods (vasectomy and tubal ligation) was restricted by loss of fertility. Consequently, the discourse of family planning, though self-recognized in their favor, assumes women can afford not to bear children. This assumption should be questioned given the complexities of the other social determinants at play, all which affect the reproductive decisions made by Haitians.

Conclusions: Overall, our study indicated awareness surrounding contraception in the Haitian Fondwa community. Combining the substantial impact of birth spacing with the elevated yet unmet need for contraceptives in the area, it is necessary to address the intricacies of gender issues in order to implement successful programing. In Haiti not being able to bear a child poses a threat to economic and social survival, possibly explaining a dimension of the low uptake of LACs in the region, even when made available. For this reason, we believe IUDs (Intrauterine Devices) provide a suitable alternative, allowing the couple to comprehend all of the factors involved in decision making, thus decreasing the imbalances of power and knowledge prior to considering an irreversible alternative.

NMR methods for characterizing the pore structures and hydrogen storage properties of microporous carbons.

(1)H NMR spectroscopy is used to investigate a series of microporous activated carbons derived from a poly(ether ether ketone) (PEEK) precursor with varying amounts of burnoff (BO). In particular, properties relevant to hydrogen storage are evaluated such as pore structure, average pore size, uptake, and binding energy. High-pressure NMR with in situ H(2) loading is employed with H(2) pressure ranging from 100 Pa to 10 MPa. An N(2)-cooled cryostat allows for NMR isotherm measurements at both room temperature ( approximately 290 K) and 100 K. Two distinct (1)H NMR peaks appear in the spectra which represent the gaseous H(2) in intergranular pores and the H(2) residing in micropores. The chemical shift of the micropore peak is observed to evolve with changing pressure, the magnitude of this effect being correlated to the amount of BO and therefore the structure. This is attributed to the different pressure dependence of the amount of adsorbed and non-adsorbed molecules within micropores, which experience significantly different chemical shifts due to the strong distance dependence of the ring current effect. In pores with a critical diameter of 1.2 nm or less, no pressure dependence is observed because they are not wide enough to host non-adsorbed molecules; this is the case for samples with less than 35% BO. The largest estimated pore size that can contribute to the micropore peak is estimated to be around 2.4 nm. The total H(2) uptake associated with pores of this size or smaller is evaluated via a calibration of the isotherms, with the highest amount being observed at 59% BO. Two binding energies are present in the micropores, with the lower, more dominant one being on the order of 5 kJ mol(-1) and the higher one ranging from 7 to 9 kJ mol(-1).

Heterogeneities in fullerene nanoparticle aggregates affecting reactivity, bioactivity, and transport.

Properties of nanomaterial suspensions are typically summarized by average values for the purposes of characterizing these materials and interpreting experimental results. We show in this work that the heterogeneity in aqueous suspensions of fullerene C(60) aggregates (nC(60)) must be taken into account for the purposes of predicting nanomaterial transport, exposure, and biological activity. The production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), microbial inactivation, and the mobility of the aggregates of the nC(60) in a silicate porous medium all increased as suspensions were fractionated to enrich with smaller aggregates by progressive membrane filtration. These size-dependent differences are attributed to an increasing degree of hydroxylation of nC(60) aggregates with decreasing size. As the quantity and influence of these more reactive fractions may increase with time, experiments evaluating fullerene transport and toxicity end points must take into account the evolution and heterogeneity of fullerene suspensions.

Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.

Differential Apaf-1 levels allow cytochrome c to induce apoptosis in brain tumors but not in normal neural tissues.

Brain tumors are typically resistant to conventional chemotherapeutics, most of which initiate apoptosis upstream of mitochondrial cytochrome c release. In this study, we demonstrate that directly activating apoptosis downstream of the mitochondria, with cytosolic cytochrome c, kills brain tumor cells but not normal brain tissue. Specifically, cytosolic cytochrome c is sufficient to induce apoptosis in glioblastoma and medulloblastoma cell lines. In contrast, primary neurons from the cerebellum and cortex are remarkably resistant to cytosolic cytochrome c. Importantly, tumor tissue from mouse models of both high-grade astrocytoma and medulloblastoma display hypersensitivity to cytochrome c when compared with surrounding brain tissue. This differential sensitivity to cytochrome c is attributed to high Apaf-1 levels in the tumor tissue compared with low Apaf-1 levels in the adjacent brain tissue. These differences in Apaf-1 abundance correlate with differences in the levels of E2F1, a previously identified activator of Apaf-1 transcription. ChIP assays reveal that E2F1 binds the Apaf-1 promoter specifically in tumor tissue, suggesting that E2F1 contributes to the expression of Apaf-1 in brain tumors. Together, these results demonstrate an unexpected sensitivity of brain tumors to postmitochondrial induction of apoptosis. Moreover, they raise the possibility that this phenomenon could be exploited therapeutically to selectively kill brain cancer cells while sparing the surrounding brain parenchyma.

Adjunctive β2-agonists reverse neuromuscular involvement in murine Pompe disease.

Pompe disease has resisted enzyme replacement therapy with acid α-glucosidase (GAA), which has been attributed to inefficient cation-independent mannose-6-phosphate receptor (CI-MPR) mediated uptake. We evaluated β2-agonist drugs, which increased CI-MPR expression in GAA knockout (KO) mice. Clenbuterol along with a low-dose adeno-associated virus vector increased Rotarod latency by 75% at 4 wk, in comparison with vector alone (P<2×10(-5)). Glycogen content was lower in skeletal muscles, including soleus (P<0.01), extensor digitorum longus (EDL; P<0.001), and tibialis anterior (P<0.05) following combination therapy, in comparison with vector alone. Glycogen remained elevated in the muscles following clenbuterol alone, indicating an adjunctive effect with gene therapy. Elderly GAA-KO mice treated with combination therapy demonstrated 2-fold increased wirehang latency, in comparison with vector or clenbuterol alone (P<0.001). The glycogen content of skeletal muscle decreased following combination therapy in elderly mice (P<0.05). Finally, CI-MPR-KO/GAA-KO mice did not respond to combination therapy, indicating that clenbuterol's effect depended on CI-MPR expression. In summary, adjunctive β2-agonist treatment increased CI-MPR expression and enhanced efficacy from gene therapy in Pompe disease, which has implications for other lysosomal storage disorders that involve primarily the brain.