R&D Costs and Returns to New Drug Development: A Review of the Evidence

© 2012 by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.This article reviews the extensive literature on R&D costs and returns. The first section focuses on R&D costs and the various factors that have affected the trends in real R&D costs over time. The second section considers economic studies on the distribution of returns in pharmaceuticals for different cohorts of new drug introductions. It also reviews the use of these studies to analyze the impact of policy actions on R&D costs and returns. The final section concludes and discusses open questions for further research.

Mergers, Acquisitions, and Alliances

© 2012 by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.This article considers the determinants and effects of M&As in the pharmaceutical industry, with a particular focus on innovation and R&D productivity. As is the case in other industries, mergers in the pharmaceutical field are driven by a variety of company motives and conditions. These include defensive responses to industry shocks as well as more proactive rationales, such as economies of scale and scope, access to new technologies, and expansion to new markets. It is important to take account of firms' characteristics and motivations in evaluating merger performance, rather than using a broad aggregate brushstroke. Research to date on pharmaceuticals suggests considerable variation in both motivation and outcomes. From an antitrust policy standpoint, the larger horizontal mergers in pharmaceuticals have run into few challenges from regulatory authorities in the United States and the European Union, given the option to spin off competing therapeutic products to other drug firms.

Measurement of intracellular strain on deformable substrates with texture correlation.

Mechanical stimuli are important factors that regulate cell proliferation, survival, metabolism and motility in a variety of cell types. The relationship between mechanical deformation of the extracellular matrix and intracellular deformation of cellular sub-regions and organelles has not been fully elucidated, but may provide new insight into the mechanisms involved in transducing mechanical stimuli to biological responses. In this study, a novel fluorescence microscopy and image analysis method was applied to examine the hypothesis that mechanical strains are fully transferred from a planar, deformable substrate to cytoplasmic and intranuclear regions within attached cells. Intracellular strains were measured in cells derived from the anulus fibrosus of the intervertebral disc when attached to an elastic silicone membrane that was subjected to tensile stretch. Measurements indicated cytoplasmic strains were similar to those of the underlying substrate, with a strain transfer ratio (STR) of 0.79. In contrast, nuclear strains were much smaller than those of the substrate, with an STR of 0.17. These findings are consistent with previous studies indicating nuclear stiffness is significantly greater than cytoplasmic stiffness, as measured using other methods. This study provides a novel method for the study of cellular mechanics, including a new technique for measuring intranuclear deformations, with evidence of differential magnitudes and patterns of strain transferred from the substrate to cell cytoplasm and nucleus.

Direct and Indirect Effects of Dissolved Organic Matter Source and Concentration on Denitrification in Northern Florida Rivers

Using a natural gradient of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) source and concentration in rivers of northern Florida, we investigated how terrestrially-derived DOC affects denitrification rates in river sediments. Specifically, we examined if the higher concentrations of DOC in blackwater rivers stimulate denitrification, or whether such terrestrially-derived DOC supports lower denitrification rates because (1) it is less labile than DOC from aquatic primary production; whether (2) terrestrial DOC directly inhibits denitrification via biochemical mechanisms; and/or whether (3) terrestrial DOC indirectly inhibits denitrification via reduced light availability to-and thus DOC exudation by-aquatic primary producers. We differentiated among these mechanisms using laboratory denitrification assays that subjected river sediments to factorial amendments of NO3- and dextrose, humic acid dosing, and cross-incubations of sediments and water from different river sources. DOC from terrestrial sources neither depressed nor stimulated denitrification rates, indicating low lability of this DOC but no direct inhibition; humic acid additions similarly did not affect denitrification rates. However, responses to addition of labile C increased with long-term average DOC concentration, which supports the hypothesis that terrestrial DOC indirectly inhibits denitrification via decreased autochthonous production. Observed and future changes in DOC concentration may therefore reduce the ability of inland waterways to remove reactive nitrogen. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Sensory information and associative cues used in food detection by wild vervet monkeys.

Understanding animals' spatial perception is a critical step toward discerning their cognitive processes. The spatial sense is multimodal and based on both the external world and mental representations of that world. Navigation in each species depends upon its evolutionary history, physiology, and ecological niche. We carried out foraging experiments on wild vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) at Lake Nabugabo, Uganda, to determine the types of cues used to detect food and whether associative cues could be used to find hidden food. Our first and second set of experiments differentiated between vervets' use of global spatial cues (including the arrangement of feeding platforms within the surrounding vegetation) and/or local layout cues (the position of platforms relative to one another), relative to the use of goal-object cues on each platform. Our third experiment provided an associative cue to the presence of food with global spatial, local layout, and goal-object cues disguised. Vervets located food above chance levels when goal-object cues and associative cues were present, and visual signals were the predominant goal-object cues that they attended to. With similar sample sizes and methods as previous studies on New World monkeys, vervets were not able to locate food using only global spatial cues and local layout cues, unlike all five species of platyrrhines thus far tested. Relative to these platyrrhines, the spatial location of food may need to stay the same for a longer time period before vervets encode this information, and goal-object cues may be more salient for them in small-scale space.

Neural networks supporting autobiographical memory retrieval in posttraumatic stress disorder.

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) affects the functional recruitment and connectivity between neural regions during autobiographical memory (AM) retrieval that overlap with default and control networks. Whether such univariate changes relate to potential differences in the contributions of the large-scale neural networks supporting cognition in PTSD is unknown. In the present functional MRI study, we employed independent-component analysis to examine the influence of the engagement of neural networks during the recall of personal memories in a PTSD group (15 participants) as compared to non-trauma-exposed healthy controls (14 participants). We found that the PTSD group recruited similar neural networks when compared to the controls during AM recall, including default-network subsystems and control networks, but group differences emerged in the spatial and temporal characteristics of these networks. First, we found spatial differences in the contributions of the anterior and posterior midline across the networks, and of the amygdala in particular, for the medial temporal subsystem of the default network. Second, we found temporal differences within the medial prefrontal subsystem of the default network, with less temporal coupling of this network during AM retrieval in PTSD relative to controls. These findings suggest that the spatial and temporal characteristics of the default and control networks potentially differ in a PTSD group versus healthy controls and contribute to altered recall of personal memory.

Remembering from any angle: the flexibility of visual perspective during retrieval.

When recalling autobiographical memories, individuals often experience visual images associated with the event. These images can be constructed from two different perspectives: first person, in which the event is visualized from the viewpoint experienced at encoding, or third person, in which the event is visualized from an external vantage point. Using a novel technique to measure visual perspective, we examined where the external vantage point is situated in third-person images. Individuals in two studies were asked to recall either 10 or 15 events from their lives and describe the perspectives they experienced. Wide variation in spatial locations was observed within third-person perspectives, with the location of these perspectives relating to the event being recalled. Results suggest remembering from an external viewpoint may be more common than previous studies have demonstrated.

Flashbulb memories and posttraumatic stress reactions across the life span: age-related effects of the German occupation of Denmark during World War II.

A representative sample of older Danes were interviewed about experiences from the German occupation of Denmark in World War II. The number of participants with flashbulb memories for the German invasion (1940) and capitulation (1945) increased with participants' age at the time of the events up to age 8. Among participants under 8 years at the time of their most traumatic event, age at the time correlated positively with the current level of posttraumatic stress reactions and the vividness of stressful memories and their centrality to life story and identity. These findings were replicated in Study 2 for self-nominated stressful events sampled from the entire life span using a representative sample of Danes born after 1945. The results are discussed in relation to posttraumatic stress disorder and childhood amnesia.

Metazoan operons accelerate recovery from growth-arrested states.

Existing theories explain why operons are advantageous in prokaryotes, but their occurrence in metazoans is an enigma. Nematode operon genes, typically consisting of growth genes, are significantly upregulated during recovery from growth-arrested states. This expression pattern is anticorrelated to nonoperon genes, consistent with a competition for transcriptional resources. We find that transcriptional resources are initially limiting during recovery and that recovering animals are highly sensitive to any additional decrease in transcriptional resources. We provide evidence that operons become advantageous because, by clustering growth genes into operons, fewer promoters compete for the limited transcriptional machinery, effectively increasing the concentration of transcriptional resources and accelerating recovery. Mathematical modeling reveals how a moderate increase in transcriptional resources can substantially enhance transcription rate and recovery. This design principle occurs in different nematodes and the chordate C. intestinalis. As transition from arrest to rapid growth is shared by many metazoans, operons could have evolved to facilitate these processes.

Functional Variants in Notch Pathway Genes NCOR2, NCSTN, and MAML2 Predict Survival of Patients with Cutaneous Melanoma.

BACKGROUND: The Notch signaling pathway is constitutively activated in human cutaneous melanoma to promote growth and aggressive metastatic potential of primary melanoma cells. Therefore, genetic variants in Notch pathway genes may affect the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma patients. METHODS: We identified 6,256 SNPs in 48 Notch genes in 858 cutaneous melanoma patients included in a previously published cutaneous melanoma genome-wide association study dataset. Multivariate and stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression and false-positive report probability corrections were performed to evaluate associations between putative functional SNPs and cutaneous melanoma disease-specific survival. Receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed, and area under the curve was used to assess the classification performance of the model. RESULTS: Four putative functional SNPs of Notch pathway genes had independent and joint predictive roles in survival of cutaneous melanoma patients. The most significant variant was NCOR2 rs2342924 T>C (adjusted HR, 2.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.73-4.23; Ptrend = 9.62 × 10(-7)), followed by NCSTN rs1124379 G>A, NCOR2 rs10846684 G>A, and MAML2 rs7953425 G>A (Ptrend = 0.005, 0.005, and 0.013, respectively). The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that area under the curve was significantly increased after adding the combined unfavorable genotype score to the model containing the known clinicopathologic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that SNPs in Notch pathway genes may be predictors of cutaneous melanoma disease-specific survival. IMPACT: Our discovery offers a translational potential for using genetic variants in Notch pathway genes as a genotype score of biomarkers for developing an improved prognostic assessment and personalized management of cutaneous melanoma patients.

Evaluation of an epithelial plasticity biomarker panel in men with localized prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Given the potential importance of epithelial plasticity (EP) to cancer metastasis, we sought to investigate biomarkers related to EP in men with localized prostate cancer (PC) for the association with time to PSA recurrence and other clinical outcomes after surgery. METHODS: Men with localized PC treated with radical prostatectomy at the Durham VA Medical Center and whose prostatectomy tissues were included in a tissue microarray (TMA) linked to long-term outcomes. We performed immunohistochemical studies using validated antibodies against E-cadherin and Ki-67 and mesenchymal biomarkers including N-cadherin, vimentin, SNAIL, ZEB1 and TWIST. Association studies were conducted for each biomarker with baseline clinical/pathologic characteristics an risk of PSA recurrence over time. RESULTS: Two hundred and five men contributed TMA tissue and had long-term follow-up (median 11 years). Forty-three percent had PSA recurrence; three died of PC. The majority had high E-cadherin expression (86%); 14% had low/absent E-cadherin expression. N-cadherin was rarely expressed (<4%) and we were unable to identify an E-to-N-cadherin switch as independently prognostic. No associations with clinical risk group, PSA recurrence or Gleason sum were noted for SNAIL, ZEB1, vimentin or TWIST, despite heterogeneous expression between patients. We observed an association of higher Ki-67 expression with Gleason sum (P=0.043), National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk (P=0.013) and PSA recurrence (hazard ratio 1.07, P=0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The expression of EP biomarkers in this cohort of men with a low risk of PC-specific mortality was not associated with aggressive features or PSA relapse after surgery.

Drug-drug interaction studies of cardiovascular drugs involving P-glycoprotein, an efflux transporter, on the pharmacokinetics of edoxaban, an oral factor Xa inhibitor.

BACKGROUND: Edoxaban, an oral direct factor Xa inhibitor, is in development for thromboprophylaxis, including prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). P-glycoprotein (P-gp), an efflux transporter, modulates absorption and excretion of xenobiotics. Edoxaban is a P-gp substrate, and several cardiovascular (CV) drugs have the potential to inhibit P-gp and increase drug exposure. OBJECTIVE: To assess the potential pharmacokinetic interactions of edoxaban and 6 cardiovascular drugs used in the management of AF and known P-gp substrates/inhibitors. METHODS: Drug-drug interaction studies with edoxaban and CV drugs with known P-gp substrate/inhibitor potential were conducted in healthy subjects. In 4 crossover, 2-period, 2-treatment studies, subjects received edoxaban 60 mg alone and coadministered with quinidine 300 mg (n = 42), verapamil 240 mg (n = 34), atorvastatin 80 mg (n = 32), or dronedarone 400 mg (n = 34). Additionally, edoxaban 60 mg alone and coadministered with amiodarone 400 mg (n = 30) or digoxin 0.25 mg (n = 48) was evaluated in a single-sequence study and 2-cohort study, respectively. RESULTS: Edoxaban exposure measured as area under the curve increased for concomitant administration of edoxaban with quinidine (76.7 %), verapamil (52.7 %), amiodarone (39.8 %), and dronedarone (84.5 %), and exposure measured as 24-h concentrations for quinidine (11.8 %), verapamil (29.1 %), and dronedarone (157.6 %) also increased. Administration of edoxaban with amiodarone decreased the 24-h concentration for edoxaban by 25.7 %. Concomitant administration with digoxin or atorvastatin had minimal effects on edoxaban exposure. CONCLUSION: Coadministration of the P-gp inhibitors quinidine, verapamil, and dronedarone increased edoxaban exposure. Modest/minimal effects were observed for amiodarone, atorvastatin, and digoxin.