Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have surprisingly robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policy makers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward-looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances. © 2010 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Gauging possibilities for action based on friction underfoot.

Standing and walking generate information about friction underfoot. Five experiments examined whether walkers use such perceptual information for prospective control of locomotion. In particular, do walkers integrate information about friction underfoot with visual cues for sloping ground ahead to make adaptive locomotor decisions? Participants stood on low-, medium-, and high-friction surfaces on a flat platform and made perceptual judgments for possibilities for locomotion over upcoming slopes. Perceptual judgments did not match locomotor abilities: Participants tended to overestimate their abilities on low-friction slopes and underestimate on high-friction slopes (Experiments 1-4). Accuracy improved only for judgments made while participants were in direct contact with the slope (Experiment 5), highlighting the difficulty of incorporating information about friction underfoot into a plan for future actions.

Safety-critical medical device development using the UPP2SF model translation tool

Software-based control of life-critical embedded systems has become increasingly complex, and to a large extent has come to determine the safety of the human being. For example, implantable cardiac pacemakers have over 80,000 lines of code which are responsible for maintaining the heart within safe operating limits. As firmware-related recalls accounted for over 41% of the 600,000 devices recalled in the last decade, there is a need for rigorous model-driven design tools to generate verified code from verified software models. To this effect, we have developed the UPP2SF model-translation tool, which facilitates automatic conversion of verified models (in UPPAAL) to models that may be simulated and tested (in Simulink/Stateflow). We describe the translation rules that ensure correct model conversion, applicable to a large class of models. We demonstrate how UPP2SF is used in themodel-driven design of a pacemaker whosemodel is (a) designed and verified in UPPAAL (using timed automata), (b) automatically translated to Stateflow for simulation-based testing, and then (c) automatically generated into modular code for hardware-level integration testing of timing-related errors. In addition, we show how UPP2SF may be used for worst-case execution time estimation early in the design stage. Using UPP2SF, we demonstrate the value of integrated end-to-end modeling, verification, code-generation and testing process for complex software-controlled embedded systems. © 2014 ACM.