Experimental measurement of preferences in health care using best-worst scaling (BWS): theoretical and statistical issues.

For optimal solutions in health care, decision makers inevitably must evaluate trade-offs, which call for multi-attribute valuation methods. Researchers have proposed using best-worst scaling (BWS) methods which seek to extract information from respondents by asking them to identify the best and worst items in each choice set. While a companion paper describes the different types of BWS, application and their advantages and downsides, this contribution expounds their relationships with microeconomic theory, which also have implications for statistical inference. This article devotes to the microeconomic foundations of preference measurement, also addressing issues such as scale invariance and scale heterogeneity. Furthermore the paper discusses the basics of preference measurement using rating, ranking and stated choice data in the light of the findings of the preceding section. Moreover the paper gives an introduction to the use of stated choice data and juxtaposes BWS with the microeconomic foundations.

A mathematical theory of stochastic microlensing. II. Random images, shear, and the Kac-Rice formula

Continuing our development of a mathematical theory of stochastic microlensing, we study the random shear and expected number of random lensed images of different types. In particular, we characterize the first three leading terms in the asymptotic expression of the joint probability density function (pdf) of the random shear tensor due to point masses in the limit of an infinite number of stars. Up to this order, the pdf depends on the magnitude of the shear tensor, the optical depth, and the mean number of stars through a combination of radial position and the star's mass. As a consequence, the pdf's of the shear components are seen to converge, in the limit of an infinite number of stars, to shifted Cauchy distributions, which shows that the shear components have heavy tails in that limit. The asymptotic pdf of the shear magnitude in the limit of an infinite number of stars is also presented. All the results on the random microlensing shear are given for a general point in the lens plane. Extending to the general random distributions (not necessarily uniform) of the lenses, we employ the Kac-Rice formula and Morse theory to deduce general formulas for the expected total number of images and the expected number of saddle images. We further generalize these results by considering random sources defined on a countable compact covering of the light source plane. This is done to introduce the notion of global expected number of positive parity images due to a general lensing map. Applying the result to microlensing, we calculate the asymptotic global expected number of minimum images in the limit of an infinite number of stars, where the stars are uniformly distributed. This global expectation is bounded, while the global expected number of images and the global expected number of saddle images diverge as the order of the number of stars. © 2009 American Institute of Physics.

Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Biomarkers of Renal Structure and Function

The kidney's major role in filtration depends on its high blood flow, concentrating mechanisms, and biochemical activation. The kidney's greatest strengths also lead to vulnerability for drug-induced nephrotoxicity and other renal injuries. The current standard to diagnose renal injuries is with a percutaneous renal biopsy, which can be biased and insufficient. In one particular case, biopsy of a kidney with renal cell carcinoma can actually initiate metastasis. Tools that are sensitive and specific to detect renal disease early are essential, especially noninvasive diagnostic imaging. While other imaging modalities (ultrasound and x-ray/CT) have their unique advantages and disadvantages, MRI has superb soft tissue contrast without ionizing radiation. More importantly, there is a richness of contrast mechanisms in MRI that has yet to be explored and applied to study renal disease.

The focus of this work is to advance preclinical imaging tools to study the structure and function of the renal system. Studies were conducted in normal and disease models to understand general renal physiology as well as pathophysiology. This dissertation is separated into two parts--the first is the identification of renal architecture with ex vivo MRI; the second is the characterization of renal dynamics and function with in vivo MRI. High resolution ex vivo imaging provided several opportunities including: 1) identification of fine renal structures, 2) implementation of different contrast mechanisms with several pulse sequences and reconstruction methods, 3) development of image-processing tools to extract regions and structures, and 4) understanding of the nephron structures that create MR contrast and that are important for renal physiology. The ex vivo studies allowed for understanding and translation to in vivo studies. While the structure of this dissertation is organized by individual projects, the goal is singular: to develop magnetic resonance imaging biomarkers for renal system.

The work presented here includes three ex vivo studies and two in vivo studies:

1) Magnetic resonance histology of age-related nephropathy in sprague dawley.

2) Quantitative susceptibility mapping of kidney inflammation and fibrosis in type 1 angiotensin receptor-deficient mice.

3) Susceptibility tensor imaging of the kidney and its microstructural underpinnings.

4) 4D MRI of renal function in the developing mouse.

5) 4D MRI of polycystic kidneys in rapamycin treated Glis3-deficient mice.

Real-Time and Data-Driven Operation Optimization and Knowledge Discovery for an Enterprise Information System

An enterprise information system (EIS) is an integrated data-applications platform characterized by diverse, heterogeneous, and distributed data sources. For many enterprises, a number of business processes still depend heavily on static rule-based methods and extensive human expertise. Enterprises are faced with the need for optimizing operation scheduling, improving resource utilization, discovering useful knowledge, and making data-driven decisions.

This thesis research is focused on real-time optimization and knowledge discovery that addresses workflow optimization, resource allocation, as well as data-driven predictions of process-execution times, order fulfillment, and enterprise service-level performance. In contrast to prior work on data analytics techniques for enterprise performance optimization, the emphasis here is on realizing scalable and real-time enterprise intelligence based on a combination of heterogeneous system simulation, combinatorial optimization, machine-learning algorithms, and statistical methods.

On-demand digital-print service is a representative enterprise requiring a powerful EIS.We use real-life data from Reischling Press, Inc. (RPI), a digit-print-service provider (PSP), to evaluate our optimization algorithms.

In order to handle the increase in volume and diversity of demands, we first present a high-performance, scalable, and real-time production scheduling algorithm for production automation based on an incremental genetic algorithm (IGA). The objective of this algorithm is to optimize the order dispatching sequence and balance resource utilization. Compared to prior work, this solution is scalable for a high volume of orders and it provides fast scheduling solutions for orders that require complex fulfillment procedures. Experimental results highlight its potential benefit in reducing production inefficiencies and enhancing the productivity of an enterprise.

We next discuss analysis and prediction of different attributes involved in hierarchical components of an enterprise. We start from a study of the fundamental processes related to real-time prediction. Our process-execution time and process status prediction models integrate statistical methods with machine-learning algorithms. In addition to improved prediction accuracy compared to stand-alone machine-learning algorithms, it also performs a probabilistic estimation of the predicted status. An order generally consists of multiple series and parallel processes. We next introduce an order-fulfillment prediction model that combines advantages of multiple classification models by incorporating flexible decision-integration mechanisms. Experimental results show that adopting due dates recommended by the model can significantly reduce enterprise late-delivery ratio. Finally, we investigate service-level attributes that reflect the overall performance of an enterprise. We analyze and decompose time-series data into different components according to their hierarchical periodic nature, perform correlation analysis,

and develop univariate prediction models for each component as well as multivariate models for correlated components. Predictions for the original time series are aggregated from the predictions of its components. In addition to a significant increase in mid-term prediction accuracy, this distributed modeling strategy also improves short-term time-series prediction accuracy.

In summary, this thesis research has led to a set of characterization, optimization, and prediction tools for an EIS to derive insightful knowledge from data and use them as guidance for production management. It is expected to provide solutions for enterprises to increase reconfigurability, accomplish more automated procedures, and obtain data-driven recommendations or effective decisions.

PARTAKE survey of public knowledge and perceptions of clinical research in India.

BACKGROUND: A public that is an informed partner in clinical research is important for ethical, methodological, and operational reasons. There are indications that the public is unaware or misinformed, and not sufficiently engaged in clinical research but studies on the topic are lacking. PARTAKE - Public Awareness of Research for Therapeutic Advancements through Knowledge and Empowerment is a program aimed at increasing public awareness and partnership in clinical research. The PARTAKE Survey is a component of the program. OBJECTIVE: To study public knowledge and perceptions of clinical research. METHODS: A 40-item questionnaire combining multiple-choice and open-ended questions was administered to 175 English- or Hindi-speaking individuals in 8 public locations representing various socioeconomic strata in New Delhi, India. RESULTS: Interviewees were 18-84 old (mean: 39.6, SD ± 16.6), 23.6% female, 68.6% employed, 7.3% illiterate, 26.3% had heard of research, 2.9% had participated and 58.9% expressed willingness to participate in clinical research. The following perceptions were reported (% true/% false/% not aware): 'research benefits society' (94.1%/3.5%/2.3%), 'the government protects against unethical clinical research' (56.7%/26.3%/16.9%), 'research hospitals provide better care' (67.2%/8.7%/23.9%), 'confidentiality is adequately protected' (54.1%/12.3%/33.5%), 'participation in research is voluntary' (85.3%/5.8%/8.7%); 'participants treated like 'guinea pigs'' (20.7%/53.2%/26.0%), and 'compensation for participation is adequate' (24.7%/12.9%/62.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest the Indian public is aware of some key features of clinical research (e.g., purpose, value, voluntary nature of participation), and supports clinical research in general but is unaware of other key features (e.g., compensation, confidentiality, protection of human participants) and exhibits some distrust in the conduct and reporting of clinical trials. Larger, cross-cultural surveys are required to inform educational programs addressing these issues.