Survival expectations of the obese: Is excess mortality reflected in perceptions?

OBJECTIVE: This study compared self-reported subjective life expectancy (i.e., probability of living to age 75) for normal-weight, overweight, and obese weight groups to examine whether individuals are internalizing information about the health risks due to excessive weight. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, a total of 9035 individuals 51 to 61 years old were analyzed by BMI category. The primary outcome measure was individuals' reports about their own expectations of survival to age 75. Absolute and relative risks of survival were compared with published estimates of survival to age 75. RESULTS: Consistently, higher levels of BMI were associated with lower self-estimated survival probabilities. Differences relative to normal weight ranged from 4.9% (p < 0.01) for male nonsmokers to 8.8% (p < 0.001) for female nonsmokers. However, these differences were substantially less than those obtained from published survival curve estimates, suggesting that obese individuals tended to underestimate mortality risks. DISCUSSION: Individuals appeared to underestimate the mortality risks of excessive weight; thus, knowledge campaigns about the risks of obesity should remain a top priority.

Burning a hole in the budget: tobacco spending and its crowd-out of other goods.

Smoking is an expensive habit. Smoking households spend, on average, more than $US1000 annually on cigarettes. When a family member quits, in addition to the former smoker's improved long-term health, families benefit because savings from reduced cigarette expenditures can be allocated to other goods. For households in which some members continue to smoke, smoking expenditures crowd-out other purchases, which may affect other household members, as well as the smoker. We empirically analyse how expenditures on tobacco crowd-out consumption of other goods, estimating the patterns of substitution and complementarity between tobacco products and other categories of household expenditure. We use the Consumer Expenditure Survey data for the years 1995-2001, which we complement with regional price data and state cigarette prices. We estimate a consumer demand system that includes several main expenditure categories (cigarettes, food, alcohol, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care) and controls for socioeconomic variables and other sources of observable heterogeneity. Descriptive data indicate that, comparing smokers to nonsmokers, smokers spend less on housing. Results from the demand system indicate that as the price of cigarettes rises, households increase the quantity of food purchased, and, in some samples, reduce the quantity of apparel and housing purchased.

Predictions of the Pt(8)Ti phase in unexpected systems.

The binary A(8)B phase (prototype Pt(8)Ti) has been experimentally observed in 11 systems. A high-throughput search over all the binary transition intermetallics, however, reveals 59 occurrences of the A(8)B phase: Au(8)Zn(dagger), Cd(8)Sc(dagger), Cu(8)Ni(dagger), Cu(8)Zn(dagger), Hg(8)La, Ir(8)Os(dagger), Ir(8)Re, Ir(8)Ru(dagger), Ir(8)Tc, Ir(8)W(dagger), Nb(8)Os(dagger), Nb(8)Rh(dagger), Nb(8)Ru(dagger), Nb(8)Ta(dagger), Ni(8)Fe, Ni(8)Mo(dagger)*, Ni(8)Nb(dagger)*, Ni(8)Ta*, Ni(8)V*, Ni(8)W, Pd(8)Al(dagger), Pd(8)Fe, Pd(8)Hf, Pd(8)Mn, Pd(8)Mo*, Pd(8)Nb, Pd(8)Sc, Pd(8)Ta, Pd(8)Ti, Pd(8)V*, Pd(8)W*, Pd(8)Zn, Pd(8)Zr, Pt(8)Al(dagger), Pt(8)Cr*, Pt(8)Hf, Pt(8)Mn, Pt(8)Mo, Pt(8)Nb, Pt(8)Rh(dagger), Pt(8)Sc, Pt(8)Ta, Pt(8)Ti*, Pt(8)V*, Pt(8)W, Pt(8)Zr*, Rh(8)Mo, Rh(8)W, Ta(8)Pd, Ta(8)Pt, Ta(8)Rh, V(8)Cr(dagger), V(8)Fe(dagger), V(8)Ir(dagger), V(8)Ni(dagger), V(8)Pd, V(8)Pt, V(8)Rh, and V(8)Ru(dagger) ((dagger) = metastable, * = experimentally observed). This is surprising for the wealth of new occurrences that are predicted, especially in well-characterized systems (e.g., Cu-Zn). By verifying all experimental results while offering additional predictions, our study serves as a striking demonstration of the power of the high-throughput approach. The practicality of the method is demonstrated in the Rh-W system. A cluster-expansion-based Monte Carlo model reveals a relatively high order-disorder transition temperature.

Risk of ovarian cancer and inherited variants in relapse-associated genes.

BACKGROUND: We previously identified a panel of genes associated with outcome of ovarian cancer. The purpose of the current study was to assess whether variants in these genes correlated with ovarian cancer risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Women with and without invasive ovarian cancer (749 cases, 1,041 controls) were genotyped at 136 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 13 candidate genes. Risk was estimated for each SNP and for overall variation within each gene. At the gene-level, variation within MSL1 (male-specific lethal-1 homolog) was associated with risk of serous cancer (p = 0.03); haplotypes within PRPF31 (PRP31 pre-mRNA processing factor 31 homolog) were associated with risk of invasive disease (p = 0.03). MSL1 rs7211770 was associated with decreased risk of serous disease (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.66-0.98; p = 0.03). SNPs in MFSD7, BTN3A3, ZNF200, PTPRS, and CCND1A were inversely associated with risk (p<0.05), and there was increased risk at HEXIM1 rs1053578 (p = 0.04, OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.02-1.91). CONCLUSIONS: Tumor studies can reveal novel genes worthy of follow-up for cancer susceptibility. Here, we found that inherited markers in the gene encoding MSL1, part of a complex that modifies the histone H4, may decrease risk of invasive serous ovarian cancer.

Augmentation of cardiac contractility mediated by the human beta(3)-adrenergic receptor overexpressed in the hearts of transgenic mice.

BACKGROUND: Stimulation of beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenergic receptors (ARs) in the heart results in positive inotropy. In contrast, it has been reported that the beta(3)AR is also expressed in the human heart and that its stimulation leads to negative inotropic effects. METHODS AND RESULTS: To better understand the role of beta(3)ARs in cardiac function, we generated transgenic mice with cardiac-specific overexpression of 330 fmol/mg protein of the human beta(3)AR (TGbeta(3) mice). Hemodynamic characterization was performed by cardiac catheterization in closed-chest anesthetized mice, by pressure-volume-loop analysis, and by echocardiography in conscious mice. After propranolol blockade of endogenous beta(1)- and beta(2)ARs, isoproterenol resulted in an increase in contractility in the TGbeta(3) mice (30%), with no effect in wild-type mice. Similarly, stimulation with the selective human beta(3)AR agonist L-755,507 significantly increased contractility in the TGbeta(3) mice (160%), with no effect in wild-type mice, as determined by hemodynamic measurements and by end-systolic pressure-volume relations. The underlying mechanism of the positive inotropy incurred with L-755,507 in the TGbeta(3) mice was investigated in terms of beta(3)AR-G-protein coupling and adenylyl cyclase activation. Stimulation of cardiac membranes from TGbeta(3) mice with L-755,507 resulted in a pertussis toxin-insensitive 1.33-fold increase in [(35)S]GTPgammaS loading and a 1.6-fold increase in adenylyl cyclase activity. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac overexpression of human beta(3)ARs results in positive inotropy only on stimulation with a beta(3)AR agonist. Overexpressed beta(3)ARs couple to G(s) and activate adenylyl cyclase on agonist stimulation.

The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

Sequencing three crocodilian genomes to illuminate the evolution of archosaurs and amniotes.

The International Crocodilian Genomes Working Group (ICGWG) will sequence and assemble the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis), saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) and Indian gharial (Gavialis gangeticus) genomes. The status of these projects and our planned analyses are described.

Phylotastic! Making tree-of-life knowledge accessible, reusable and convenient.

BACKGROUND: Scientists rarely reuse expert knowledge of phylogeny, in spite of years of effort to assemble a great "Tree of Life" (ToL). A notable exception involves the use of Phylomatic, which provides tools to generate custom phylogenies from a large, pre-computed, expert phylogeny of plant taxa. This suggests great potential for a more generalized system that, starting with a query consisting of a list of any known species, would rectify non-standard names, identify expert phylogenies containing the implicated taxa, prune away unneeded parts, and supply branch lengths and annotations, resulting in a custom phylogeny suited to the user's needs. Such a system could become a sustainable community resource if implemented as a distributed system of loosely coupled parts that interact through clearly defined interfaces. RESULTS: With the aim of building such a "phylotastic" system, the NESCent Hackathons, Interoperability, Phylogenies (HIP) working group recruited 2 dozen scientist-programmers to a weeklong programming hackathon in June 2012. During the hackathon (and a three-month follow-up period), 5 teams produced designs, implementations, documentation, presentations, and tests including: (1) a generalized scheme for integrating components; (2) proof-of-concept pruners and controllers; (3) a meta-API for taxonomic name resolution services; (4) a system for storing, finding, and retrieving phylogenies using semantic web technologies for data exchange, storage, and querying; (5) an innovative new service, DateLife.org, which synthesizes pre-computed, time-calibrated phylogenies to assign ages to nodes; and (6) demonstration projects. These outcomes are accessible via a public code repository (GitHub.com), a website (http://www.phylotastic.org), and a server image. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 9 person-months of effort (centered on a software development hackathon) resulted in the design and implementation of proof-of-concept software for 4 core phylotastic components, 3 controllers, and 3 end-user demonstration tools. While these products have substantial limitations, they suggest considerable potential for a distributed system that makes phylogenetic knowledge readily accessible in computable form. Widespread use of phylotastic systems will create an electronic marketplace for sharing phylogenetic knowledge that will spur innovation in other areas of the ToL enterprise, such as annotation of sources and methods and third-party methods of quality assessment.

Three crocodilian genomes reveal ancestral patterns of evolution among archosaurs.

To provide context for the diversification of archosaurs--the group that includes crocodilians, dinosaurs, and birds--we generated draft genomes of three crocodilians: Alligator mississippiensis (the American alligator), Crocodylus porosus (the saltwater crocodile), and Gavialis gangeticus (the Indian gharial). We observed an exceptionally slow rate of genome evolution within crocodilians at all levels, including nucleotide substitutions, indels, transposable element content and movement, gene family evolution, and chromosomal synteny. When placed within the context of related taxa including birds and turtles, this suggests that the common ancestor of all of these taxa also exhibited slow genome evolution and that the comparatively rapid evolution is derived in birds. The data also provided the opportunity to analyze heterozygosity in crocodilians, which indicates a likely reduction in population size for all three taxa through the Pleistocene. Finally, these data combined with newly published bird genomes allowed us to reconstruct the partial genome of the common ancestor of archosaurs, thereby providing a tool to investigate the genetic starting material of crocodilians, birds, and dinosaurs.