A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses.

Antigenically variable RNA viruses are significant contributors to the burden of infectious disease worldwide. One reason for their ubiquity is their ability to escape herd immunity through rapid antigenic evolution and thereby to reinfect previously infected hosts. However, the ways in which these viruses evolve antigenically are highly diverse. Some have only limited diversity in the long-run, with every emergence of a new antigenic variant coupled with a replacement of the older variant. Other viruses rapidly accumulate antigenic diversity over time. Others still exhibit dynamics that can be considered evolutionary intermediates between these two extremes. Here, we present a theoretical framework that aims to understand these differences in evolutionary patterns by considering a virus's epidemiological dynamics in a given host population. Our framework, based on a dimensionless number, probabilistically anticipates patterns of viral antigenic diversification and thereby quantifies a virus's evolutionary potential. It is therefore similar in spirit to the basic reproduction number, the well-known dimensionless number which quantifies a pathogen's reproductive potential. We further outline how our theoretical framework can be applied to empirical viral systems, using influenza A/H3N2 as a case study. We end with predictions of our framework and work that remains to be done to further integrate viral evolutionary dynamics with disease ecology.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Early social exposure in wild chimpanzees: mothers with sons are more gregarious than mothers with daughters.

In many mammals, early social experience is critical to developing species-appropriate adult behaviors. Although mother-infant interactions play an undeniably significant role in social development, other individuals in the social milieu may also influence infant outcomes. Additionally, the social skills necessary for adult success may differ between the sexes. In chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes), adult males are more gregarious than females and rely on a suite of competitive and cooperative relationships to obtain access to females. In fission-fusion species, including humans and chimpanzees, subgroup composition is labile and individuals can vary the number of individuals with whom they associate. Thus, mothers in these species have a variety of social options. In this study, we investigated whether wild chimpanzee maternal subgrouping patterns differed based on infant sex. Our results show that mothers of sons were more gregarious than mothers of daughters; differences were especially pronounced during the first 6 mo of life, when infant behavior is unlikely to influence maternal subgrouping. Furthermore, mothers with sons spent significantly more time in parties containing males during the first 6 mo. These early differences foreshadow the well-documented sex differences in adult social behavior, and maternal gregariousness may provide sons with important observational learning experiences and social exposure early in life. The presence of these patterns in chimpanzees raises questions concerning the evolutionary history of differential social exposure and its role in shaping sex-typical behavior in humans.

Visual memory-deficit amnesia: a distinct amnesic presentation and etiology.

We describe a form of amnesia, which we have called visual memory-deficit amnesia, that is caused by damage to areas of the visual system that store visual information. Because it is caused by a deficit in access to stored visual material and not by an impaired ability to encode or retrieve new material, it has the otherwise infrequent properties of a more severe retrograde than anterograde amnesia with no temporal gradient in the retrograde amnesia. Of the 11 cases of long-term visual memory loss found in the literature, all had amnesia extending beyond a loss of visual memory, often including a near total loss of pretraumatic episodic memory. Of the 6 cases in which both the severity of retrograde and anterograde amnesia and the temporal gradient of the retrograde amnesia were noted, 4 had a more severe retrograde amnesia with no temporal gradient and 2 had a less severe retrograde amnesia with a temporal gradient.

Mainland size variation informs predictive models of exceptional insular body size change in rodents.

The tendency for island populations of mammalian taxa to diverge in body size from their mainland counterparts consistently in particular directions is both impressive for its regularity and, especially among rodents, troublesome for its exceptions. However, previous studies have largely ignored mainland body size variation, treating size differences of any magnitude as equally noteworthy. Here, we use distributions of mainland population body sizes to identify island populations as 'extremely' big or small, and we compare traits of extreme populations and their islands with those of island populations more typical in body size. We find that although insular rodents vary in the directions of body size change, 'extreme' populations tend towards gigantism. With classification tree methods, we develop a predictive model, which points to resource limitations as major drivers in the few cases of insular dwarfism. Highly successful in classifying our dataset, our model also successfully predicts change in untested cases.

Neuronal correlates of visual time perception at brief timescales.

Successful interaction with the world depends on accurate perception of the timing of external events. Neurons at early stages of the primate visual system represent time-varying stimuli with high precision. However, it is unknown whether this temporal fidelity is maintained in the prefrontal cortex, where changes in neuronal activity generally correlate with changes in perception. One reason to suspect that it is not maintained is that humans experience surprisingly large fluctuations in the perception of time. To investigate the neuronal correlates of time perception, we recorded from neurons in the prefrontal cortex and midbrain of monkeys performing a temporal-discrimination task. Visual time intervals were presented at a timescale relevant to natural behavior (<500 ms). At this brief timescale, neuronal adaptation--time-dependent changes in the size of successive responses--occurs. We found that visual activity fluctuated with timing judgments in the prefrontal cortex but not in comparable midbrain areas. Surprisingly, only response strength, not timing, predicted task performance. Intervals perceived as longer were associated with larger visual responses and shorter intervals with smaller responses, matching the dynamics of adaptation. These results suggest that the magnitude of prefrontal activity may be read out to provide temporal information that contributes to judging the passage of time.

Quantification of biological aging in young adults.

Antiaging therapies show promise in model organism research. Translation to humans is needed to address the challenges of an aging global population. Interventions to slow human aging will need to be applied to still-young individuals. However, most human aging research examines older adults, many with chronic disease. As a result, little is known about aging in young humans. We studied aging in 954 young humans, the Dunedin Study birth cohort, tracking multiple biomarkers across three time points spanning their third and fourth decades of life. We developed and validated two methods by which aging can be measured in young adults, one cross-sectional and one longitudinal. Our longitudinal measure allows quantification of the pace of coordinated physiological deterioration across multiple organ systems (e.g., pulmonary, periodontal, cardiovascular, renal, hepatic, and immune function). We applied these methods to assess biological aging in young humans who had not yet developed age-related diseases. Young individuals of the same chronological age varied in their "biological aging" (declining integrity of multiple organ systems). Already, before midlife, individuals who were aging more rapidly were less physically able, showed cognitive decline and brain aging, self-reported worse health, and looked older. Measured biological aging in young adults can be used to identify causes of aging and evaluate rejuvenation therapies.

Hostile attributional bias and aggressive behavior in global context.

We tested a model that children's tendency to attribute hostile intent to others in response to provocation is a key psychological process that statistically accounts for individual differences in reactive aggressive behavior and that this mechanism contributes to global group differences in children's chronic aggressive behavior problems. Participants were 1,299 children (mean age at year 1 = 8.3 y; 51% girls) from 12 diverse ecological-context groups in nine countries worldwide, followed across 4 y. In year 3, each child was presented with each of 10 hypothetical vignettes depicting an ambiguous provocation toward the child and was asked to attribute the likely intent of the provocateur (coded as benign or hostile) and to predict his or her own behavioral response (coded as nonaggression or reactive aggression). Mothers and children independently rated the child's chronic aggressive behavior problems in years 2, 3, and 4. In every ecological group, in those situations in which a child attributed hostile intent to a peer, that child was more likely to report that he or she would respond with reactive aggression than in situations when that same child attributed benign intent. Across children, hostile attributional bias scores predicted higher mother- and child-rated chronic aggressive behavior problems, even controlling for prior aggression. Ecological group differences in the tendency for children to attribute hostile intent statistically accounted for a significant portion of group differences in chronic aggressive behavior problems. The findings suggest a psychological mechanism for group differences in aggressive behavior and point to potential interventions to reduce aggressive behavior.

Conformational kinetics reveals affinities of protein conformational states.

Most biological reactions rely on interplay between binding and changes in both macromolecular structure and dynamics. Practical understanding of this interplay requires detection of critical intermediates and determination of their binding and conformational characteristics. However, many of these species are only transiently present and they have often been overlooked in mechanistic studies of reactions that couple binding to conformational change. We monitored the kinetics of ligand-induced conformational changes in a small protein using six different ligands. We analyzed the kinetic data to simultaneously determine both binding affinities for the conformational states and the rate constants of conformational change. The approach we used is sufficiently robust to determine the affinities of three conformational states and detect even modest differences in the protein's affinities for relatively similar ligands. Ligand binding favors higher-affinity conformational states by increasing forward conformational rate constants and/or decreasing reverse conformational rate constants. The amounts by which forward rate constants increase and reverse rate constants decrease are proportional to the ratio of affinities of the conformational states. We also show that both the affinity ratio and another parameter, which quantifies the changes in conformational rate constants upon ligand binding, are strong determinants of the mechanism (conformational selection and/or induced fit) of molecular recognition. Our results highlight the utility of analyzing the kinetics of conformational changes to determine affinities that cannot be determined from equilibrium experiments. Most importantly, they demonstrate an inextricable link between conformational dynamics and the binding affinities of conformational states.

Suppression of conformational heterogeneity at a protein-protein interface.

Staphylococcal protein A (SpA) is an important virulence factor from Staphylococcus aureus responsible for the bacterium's evasion of the host immune system. SpA includes five small three-helix-bundle domains that can each bind with high affinity to many host proteins such as antibodies. The interaction between a SpA domain and the Fc fragment of IgG was partially elucidated previously in the crystal structure 1FC2. Although informative, the previous structure was not properly folded and left many substantial questions unanswered, such as a detailed description of the tertiary structure of SpA domains in complex with Fc and the structural changes that take place upon binding. Here we report the 2.3-Å structure of a fully folded SpA domain in complex with Fc. Our structure indicates that there are extensive structural rearrangements necessary for binding Fc, including a general reduction in SpA conformational heterogeneity, freezing out of polyrotameric interfacial residues, and displacement of a SpA side chain by an Fc side chain in a molecular-recognition pocket. Such a loss of conformational heterogeneity upon formation of the protein-protein interface may occur when SpA binds its multiple binding partners. Suppression of conformational heterogeneity may be an important structural paradigm in functionally plastic proteins.

Global value chains and agrifood standards: challenges and possibilities for smallholders in developing countries.

The rise of private food standards has brought forth an ongoing debate about whether they work as a barrier for smallholders and hinder poverty reduction in developing countries. This paper uses a global value chain approach to explain the relationship between value chain structure and agrifood safety and quality standards and to discuss the challenges and possibilities this entails for the upgrading of smallholders. It maps four potential value chain scenarios depending on the degree of concentration in the markets for agrifood supply (farmers and manufacturers) and demand (supermarkets and other food retailers) and discusses the impact of lead firms and key intermediaries on smallholders in different chain situations. Each scenario is illustrated with case examples. Theoretical and policy issues are discussed, along with proposals for future research in terms of industry structure, private governance, and sustainable value chains.

Locomotor head movements and semicircular canal morphology in primates.

Animal locomotion causes head rotations, which are detected by the semicircular canals of the inner ear. Morphologic features of the canals influence rotational sensitivity, and so it is hypothesized that locomotion and canal morphology are functionally related. Most prior research has compared subjective assessments of animal "agility" with a single determinant of rotational sensitivity: the mean canal radius of curvature (R). In fact, the paired variables of R and body mass are correlated with agility and have been used to infer locomotion in extinct species. To refine models of canal functional morphology and to improve locomotor inferences for extinct species, we compare 3D vector measurements of head rotation during locomotion with 3D vector measures of canal sensitivity. Contrary to the predictions of conventional models that are based upon R, we find that axes of rapid head rotation are not aligned with axes of either high or low sensitivity. Instead, animals with fast head rotations have similar sensitivities in all directions, which they achieve by orienting the three canals of each ear orthogonally (i.e., along planes at 90° angles to one another). The extent to which the canal configuration approaches orthogonality is correlated with rotational head speed independent of body mass and phylogeny, whereas R is not.

Dietary quality and encephalization in platyrrhine primates.

The high energetic costs of building and maintaining large brains are thought to constrain encephalization. The 'expensive-tissue hypothesis' (ETH) proposes that primates (especially humans) overcame this constraint through reduction of another metabolically expensive tissue, the gastrointestinal tract. Small guts characterize animals specializing on easily digestible diets. Thus, the hypothesis may be tested via the relationship between brain size and diet quality. Platyrrhine primates present an interesting test case, as they are more variably encephalized than other extant primate clades (excluding Hominoidea). We find a high degree of phylogenetic signal in the data for diet quality, endocranial volume and body size. Controlling for phylogenetic effects, we find no significant correlation between relative diet quality and relative endocranial volume. Thus, diet quality fails to account for differences in platyrrhine encephalization. One taxon, in particular, Brachyteles, violates predictions made by ETH in having a large brain and low-quality diet. Dietary reconstructions of stem platyrrhines further indicate that a relatively high-quality diet was probably in place prior to increases in encephalization. Therefore, it is unlikely that a shift in diet quality was a primary constraint release for encephalization in platyrrhines and, by extrapolation, humans.

Freezing behaviour facilitates bioelectric crypsis in cuttlefish faced with predation risk.

Cephalopods, and in particular the cuttlefish Sepia officinalis, are common models for studies of camouflage and predator avoidance behaviour. Preventing detection by predators is especially important to this group of animals, most of which are soft-bodied, lack physical defences, and are subject to both visually and non-visually mediated detection. Here, we report a novel cryptic mechanism in S. officinalis in which bioelectric cues are reduced via a behavioural freeze response to a predator stimulus. The reduction of bioelectric fields created by the freeze-simulating stimulus resulted in a possible decrease in shark predation risk by reducing detectability. The freeze response may also facilitate other non-visual cryptic mechanisms to lower predation risk from a wide range of predator types.