Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in regional precipitation variance: focus on the Southeastern United States

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The frequency and severity of extreme events are tightly associated with the variance of precipitation. As climate warms, the acceleration in hydrological cycle is likely to enhance the variance of precipitation across the globe. However, due to the lack of an effective analysis method, the mechanisms responsible for the changes of precipitation variance are poorly understood, especially on regional scales. Our study fills this gap by formulating a variance partition algorithm, which explicitly quantifies the contributions of atmospheric thermodynamics (specific humidity) and dynamics (wind) to the changes in regional-scale precipitation variance. Taking Southeastern (SE) United States (US) summer precipitation as an example, the algorithm is applied to the simulations of current and future climate by phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. The analysis suggests that compared to observations, most CMIP5 models (~60 %) tend to underestimate the summer precipitation variance over the SE US during the 1950–1999, primarily due to the errors in the modeled dynamic processes (i.e. large-scale circulation). Among the 18 CMIP5 models analyzed in this study, six of them reasonably simulate SE US summer precipitation variance in the twentieth century and the underlying physical processes; these models are thus applied for mechanistic study of future changes in SE US summer precipitation variance. In the future, the six models collectively project an intensification of SE US summer precipitation variance, resulting from the combined effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics. Between them, the latter plays a more important role. Specifically, thermodynamics results in more frequent and intensified wet summers, but does not contribute to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of dry summers. In contrast, atmospheric dynamics explains the projected enhancement in both wet and dry summers, indicating its importance in understanding future climate change over the SE US. The results suggest that the intensified SE US summer precipitation variance is not a purely thermodynamic response to greenhouse gases forcing, and cannot be explained without the contribution of atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides important insights to understand the mechanisms of SE US summer precipitation variance change. The algorithm formulated in this study can be easily applied to other regions and seasons to systematically explore the mechanisms responsible for the changes in precipitation extremes in a warming climate.

Metazoan operons accelerate recovery from growth-arrested states.

Existing theories explain why operons are advantageous in prokaryotes, but their occurrence in metazoans is an enigma. Nematode operon genes, typically consisting of growth genes, are significantly upregulated during recovery from growth-arrested states. This expression pattern is anticorrelated to nonoperon genes, consistent with a competition for transcriptional resources. We find that transcriptional resources are initially limiting during recovery and that recovering animals are highly sensitive to any additional decrease in transcriptional resources. We provide evidence that operons become advantageous because, by clustering growth genes into operons, fewer promoters compete for the limited transcriptional machinery, effectively increasing the concentration of transcriptional resources and accelerating recovery. Mathematical modeling reveals how a moderate increase in transcriptional resources can substantially enhance transcription rate and recovery. This design principle occurs in different nematodes and the chordate C. intestinalis. As transition from arrest to rapid growth is shared by many metazoans, operons could have evolved to facilitate these processes.

Perceived cannabis use norms and cannabis use among adolescents in the United States.

Due to changes in cannabis policies, concerns about cannabis use (CU) in adolescents have increased. The population of nonwhite groups is growing quickly in the United States. We examined perceived CU norms and their association with CU and CU disorder (CUD) for White, Black, Hispanic, Native-American, Asian-American, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (NH/PI), and mixed-race adolescents. Data were from adolescents (12-17 years) in the 2004-2012 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (N = 163,837). Substance use and CUD were assessed by computer-assisted, self-interviewing methods. Blacks, Hispanics, Native-Americans, and mixed-race adolescents had greater odds of past-year CU and CUD than Whites. Among past-year cannabis users (CUs), Hispanics and Native-Americans had greater odds of having a CUD than Whites. Asian-Americans had the highest prevalence of perceived parental or close friends' CU disapproval. Native-Americans and mixed-race adolescents had lower odds than Whites of perceiving CU disapproval from parents or close friends. In adjusted analyses, adolescent's disapproval of CU, as well as perceived disapproval by parents or close friends, were associated with a decreased odds of CU in each racial/ethnic group, except for NHs/PIs. Adolescent's disapproval of CU was associated with a decreased odds of CUD among CUs for Whites (personal, parental, and close friends' disapproval), Hispanics (personal, parental, and close friends' disapproval), and mixed-race adolescents (personal, close friends' disapproval). Racial/ethnic differences in adolescent CU prevalence were somewhat consistent with adolescents' reports of CU norm patterns. Longitudinal research on CU health effects should oversample nonwhite adolescents to assure an adequate sample for analysis and reporting.

Conformational kinetics reveals affinities of protein conformational states.

Most biological reactions rely on interplay between binding and changes in both macromolecular structure and dynamics. Practical understanding of this interplay requires detection of critical intermediates and determination of their binding and conformational characteristics. However, many of these species are only transiently present and they have often been overlooked in mechanistic studies of reactions that couple binding to conformational change. We monitored the kinetics of ligand-induced conformational changes in a small protein using six different ligands. We analyzed the kinetic data to simultaneously determine both binding affinities for the conformational states and the rate constants of conformational change. The approach we used is sufficiently robust to determine the affinities of three conformational states and detect even modest differences in the protein's affinities for relatively similar ligands. Ligand binding favors higher-affinity conformational states by increasing forward conformational rate constants and/or decreasing reverse conformational rate constants. The amounts by which forward rate constants increase and reverse rate constants decrease are proportional to the ratio of affinities of the conformational states. We also show that both the affinity ratio and another parameter, which quantifies the changes in conformational rate constants upon ligand binding, are strong determinants of the mechanism (conformational selection and/or induced fit) of molecular recognition. Our results highlight the utility of analyzing the kinetics of conformational changes to determine affinities that cannot be determined from equilibrium experiments. Most importantly, they demonstrate an inextricable link between conformational dynamics and the binding affinities of conformational states.

The Impact of Worsening Heart Failure in the United States.

In-hospital worsening heart failure represents a clinical scenario wherein a patient hospitalized for acute heart failure experiences a worsening of their condition, requiring escalation of therapy. Worsening heart failure is associated with worse in-hospital and postdischarge outcomes. Worsening heart failure is increasingly being used as an endpoint or combined endpoint in clinical trials, as it is unique to episodes of acute heart failure and captures an important event during the inpatient course. While prediction models have been developed to identify worsening heart failure, there are no known FDA-approved medications associated with decreased worsening heart failure. Continued study is warranted.

Physical activity-related and weather-related practices of child care centers from 2 states

© 2015 Human Kinetics, Inc.Background: Young children's physical activity (PA) is influenced by their child care environment. This study assessed PA practices in centers from Massachusetts (MA) and Rhode Island (RI), compared them to best practice recommendations, and assessed differences between states and center profit status. We also assessed weather-related practices. Methods: Sixty percent of MA and 54% of RI directors returned a survey, for a total of 254. Recommendations were 1) daily outdoor play, 2) providing outdoor play area, 3) limiting fixed play structures, 4) variety of portable play equipment, and 5) providing indoor play area. We fit multivariable linear regression models to examine adjusted associations between state, profit status, PA, and weather-related practices. Results: MA did not differ from RI in meeting PA recommendations (β = 0.03; 0.15, 0.21; P = .72), but MA centers scored higher on weather-related practices (β = 0.47; 0.16, 0.79; P = .004). For-profit centers had lower PA scores compared with nonprofits (β = -0.20; 95% CI: -0.38, -0.02; P = .03), but they did not differ for weather (β = 0.12; -0.19, 0.44; P = .44). Conclusions: More MA centers allowed children outside in light rain or snow. For-profit centers had more equipment-both fixed and portable. Results from this study may help inform interventions to increase PA in children.

Selectivity of physiotherapist programs in the United States does not differ by institutional funding source or research activity level.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to compare selectivity characteristics among institution characteristics to determine differences by institutional funding source (public vs. private) or research activity level (research vs. non-research). METHODS: This study included information provided by the Commission on Accreditation in Physical Therapy Education (CAPTE) and the Federation of State Boards of Physical Therapy. Data were extracted from all students who graduated in 2011 from accredited physical therapy programs in the United States. The public and private designations of the institutions were extracted directly from the classifications from the 'CAPTE annual accreditation report,' and high and low research activity was determined based on Carnegie classifications. The institutions were classified into four groups: public/research intensive, public/non-research intensive, private/research intensive, and private/non-research intensive. Descriptive and comparison analyses with post hoc testing were performed to determine whether there were statistically significant differences among the four groups. RESULTS: Although there were statistically significant baseline grade point average differences among the four categorized groups, there were no significant differences in licensure pass rates or for any of the selectivity variables of interest. CONCLUSION: Selectivity characteristics did not differ by institutional funding source (public vs. private) or research activity level (research vs. non-research). This suggests that the concerns about reduced selectivity among physiotherapy programs, specifically the types that are experiencing the largest proliferation, appear less warranted.