Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.

Conductance of quantum impurity models from quantum monte carlo

The conductance of two Anderson impurity models, one with twofold and another with fourfold degeneracy, representing two types of quantum dots, is calculated using a world-line quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) method. Extrapolation of the imaginary time QMC data to zero frequency yields the linear conductance, which is then compared to numerical renormalization-group results in order to assess its accuracy. We find that the method gives excellent results at low temperature (T TK) throughout the mixed-valence and Kondo regimes but it is unreliable for higher temperature. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

A noisy linear map underlies oscillations in cell size and gene expression in bacteria.

During bacterial growth, a cell approximately doubles in size before division, after which it splits into two daughter cells. This process is subjected to the inherent perturbations of cellular noise and thus requires regulation for cell-size homeostasis. The mechanisms underlying the control and dynamics of cell size remain poorly understood owing to the difficulty in sizing individual bacteria over long periods of time in a high-throughput manner. Here we measure and analyse long-term, single-cell growth and division across different Escherichia coli strains and growth conditions. We show that a subset of cells in a population exhibit transient oscillations in cell size with periods that stretch across several (more than ten) generations. Our analysis reveals that a simple law governing cell-size control-a noisy linear map-explains the origins of these cell-size oscillations across all strains. This noisy linear map implements a negative feedback on cell-size control: a cell with a larger initial size tends to divide earlier, whereas one with a smaller initial size tends to divide later. Combining simulations of cell growth and division with experimental data, we demonstrate that this noisy linear map generates transient oscillations, not just in cell size, but also in constitutive gene expression. Our work provides new insights into the dynamics of bacterial cell-size regulation with implications for the physiological processes involved.