Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Larval Atlantic Menhaden on the East Coast of the United States

Atlantic Menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus is a commercially and ecologically important forage fish abundant on the Atlantic Coast of the United States. We conducted spatial and temporal analyses of larval Atlantic Menhaden using data collected from two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs during 1977-1987 and 1999-2013 to construct indices of larval abundance and survival over time, evaluate how environmental factors affect early life survival, and examine how larvae are distributed in space to gain knowledge on spawning and larval dispersal. Over time, we found larval abundance to increase, while early life survival declined. Coastal temperature, wind speed, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation were found to potentially explain some of this decline in survival. Over both periods, we found evidence spawning predominantly occurs near shore, from New York to North Carolina, increasing in intensity southwards. While the general spatial patterns were consistent, we observed some localized variation and overall expansion of occupied area by larvae.

Developing Numeric Nutrient Criteria for Streams on the Delmarva Peninsula

To better address stream impairments due to excess nitrogen and phosphorus and to accomplish the goals of the Clean Water Act, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is requiring states to develop numeric nutrient criteria. An assessment of nutrient concentrations in streams on the Delmarva Peninsula showed that nutrient levels are mostly higher than numeric criteria derived by EPA for the Eastern Coastal Plain, indicating widespread water quality degradation. Here, various approaches were used to derive numeric nutrient criteria from a set of 52 streams sampled across Delmarva. Results of the percentile and y-intercept methods were similar to those obtained elsewhere. Downstream protection values show that if numeric nutrient criteria were implemented for Delmarva streams they would be protective of the Choptank River Estuary, meeting the goals of the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL).

DISSOLVED AND GASEOUS FLUXES OF CARBON AND NITROGEN FROM URBAN WATERSHEDS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

Carbon and nitrogen loading to streams and rivers contributes to eutrophication as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) production in streams, rivers and estuaries. My dissertation consists of three research chapters, which examine interactions and potential trade-offs between water quality and greenhouse gas production in urban streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. My first research project focused on drivers of carbon export and quality in an urbanized river. I found that watershed carbon sources (soils and leaves) contributed more than in-stream production to overall carbon export, but that periods of high in-stream productivity were important over seasonal and daily timescales. My second research chapter examined the influence of urban storm-water and sanitary infrastructure on dissolved and gaseous carbon and nitrogen concentrations in headwater streams. Gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) were consistently super-saturated throughout the course of a year. N2O concentrations in streams draining septic systems were within the high range of previously published values. Total dissolved nitrogen concentration was positively correlated with CO2 and N2O and negatively correlated with CH4. My third research chapter examined a long-term (15-year) record of GHG emissions from soils in rural forests, urban forest, and urban lawns in Baltimore, MD. CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions showed positive correlations with temperature at each site. Lawns were a net source of CH4 + N2O, whereas forests were net sinks. Gross CO2 fluxes were also highest in lawns, in part due to elevated growing-season temperatures. While land cover influences GHG emissions from soils, the overall role of land cover on this flux is very small (< 0.5%) compared with gases released from anthropogenic sources, according to a recent GHG budget of the Baltimore metropolitan area, where this study took place.

Using landscape metrics to predict hydrologic connectivity patterns between forested wetlands and streams in a coastal plain watershed

Geographically isolated wetlands, those entirely surrounded by uplands, provide numerous ecological functions, some of which are dependent on the degree to which they are hydrologically connected to nearby waters. There is a growing need for field-validated, landscape-scale approaches for classifying wetlands based on their expected degree of connectivity with stream networks. During the 2015 water year, flow duration was recorded in non-perennial streams (n = 23) connecting forested wetlands and nearby perennial streams on the Delmarva Peninsula (Maryland, USA). Field and GIS-derived landscape metrics (indicators of catchment, wetland, non-perennial stream, and soil characteristics) were assessed as predictors of wetland-stream connectivity (duration, seasonal onset and offset dates). Connection duration was most strongly correlated with non-perennial stream geomorphology and wetland characteristics. A final GIS-based stepwise regression model (adj-R2 = 0.74, p < 0.0001) described wetland-stream connection duration as a function of catchment area, wetland area and number, and soil available water storage.

Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.