Influence of environmental conditions on the age, hatch dates, and growth of juvenile Atlantic menhaden in the Choptank River, MD

Since 1993 Atlantic menhaden has experienced sustained low juvenile production (recruitment) in the Chesapeake Bay. Factors controlling growth, abundance, and mortality of larval and juvenile menhaden change throughout ontogeny such that larval growth rates could carry over to juvenile growth and survival. The effects of winter thermal conditions on the hatch dates and growth of larval and juvenile Atlantic menhaden in Atlantic shelf and Chesapeake Bay habitats were examined using otolith (ear-stone) increment analyses and growth models. For 2010-2013, truncated hatch-date distributions provided evidence for a winter recruitment bottleneck in Atlantic menhaden caused by cold temperatures. Hatch-dates of surviving juveniles were skewed towards warmer months for years characterized by colder temperatures. Reduced larval growth rates, influenced by reduced temperature and food availability, carried over to juvenile growth rates. A growing degree-day model performed well in simulating observed juvenile growth rates in the Choptank River tributary of Chesapeake Bay.

A Social Cognitive Approach to Coping with Acculturative Stress in International Students

The present study employed a cross-sectional design to test a model of coping with acculturative stress in an international student sample. Drawing from Lent’s (2004) social cognitive model of restorative well-being, several direct and mediated paths were hypothesized to predict (negatively) acculturative stress and (positively) life satisfaction. Behavioral acculturation and behavioral enculturation (Kim & Omizo, 2006) were also examined as predictors of coping with acculturative stress among international students. Using a self-report survey, participants’ ratings of acculturative stress, life satisfaction, social support, behavioral acculturation, behavioral enculturation, and coping self-efficacy were assessed. The results revealed that the variables of the model explained 16% of the variance in acculturative stress and 27% of the variance in life satisfaction. A final model, including the use of modification indices, provided good fit to the data. Findings also suggested that coping self-efficacy was a direct predictor of acculturative stress, and that behavioral acculturation and coping self-efficacy were direct predictors of students’ life satisfaction. Limitations, future research, and practical implications are discussed.

States' Responding Behavior in Conflict: Asymmetric Response and Strategic Conflict Avoidance

State responses to external threats and aggression are studied with focus on two different rationales: (1) to make credible deterrent threats to avoid being exploited, and (2) to minimize the risk of escalation to unwanted war. Given external aggression, the target state's responding behavior has three possibilities: concession (under-response), reciprocation, and escalation. This study focuses on the first two possibilities and investigates how the strategic nature of crisis interaction can explain the intentional choice of concession or avoidance of retaliation. I build a two-level bargaining model that accounts for the domestic bargaining situation between the leader and the challenger for each state. The model's equilibrium shows that the responding behavior is determined not only by inter-state level variables (e.g. balance of power between two states, or cost of war that each state is supposed to pay), but also the domestic variables of both states. Next, the strategic interaction is rationally explained by the model: as the responding state believes that the initiating state has strong domestic challenges and, hence, the aggression is believed to be initiated for domestic political purposes (a rally-around-the-flag effect), the response tends to decrease. The concession is also predicted if the target state leader has strong bargaining power against her domestic challengers \emph{and} she believes that the initiating leader suffers from weak domestic standing. To test the model's prediction, I conduct a lab experiment and case studies. The experimental result shows that under an incentivized bargaining situation, individual actors are observed to react to hostile action as the model predicts: if the opponent is believed to suffer from internally driven difficulties, the subject will not punish hostile behavior of the other player as severely as she would without such a belief. The experiment also provides supporting evidence for the choice of concession: when the player finds herself in a favorable situation while the other has disadvantages, the player is more likely to make concessions in the controlled dictator game. Two cases are examined to discuss how the model can explain the choice of either reciprocation or concession. From personal interviews and fieldwork in South Korea, I find that South Korea's reciprocating behavior during the 2010 Yeonpyeong Island incident is explained by a combination of `low domestic power of initiating leader (Kim Jong-il)' and `low domestic power of responding leader (Lee Myung-bak).' On the other hand, the case of EC-121 is understood as a non-response or concession outcome. Declassified documents show that Nixon and his key advisors interpreted the attack as a result of North Korea's domestic political instabilities (low domestic power of initiating leader) and that Nixon did not have difficulties at domestic politics during the first few months of his presidency (high domestic power of responding leader).

THERMAL VACUUM TEST CORRELATION OF A ZERO PROPELLANT LOAD CASE THERMAL CAPACITANCE PROPELLANT GAUGING ANALYTICAL MODEL

This thesis describes the development and correlation of a thermal model that forms the foundation of a thermal capacitance spacecraft propellant load estimator. Specific details of creating the thermal model for the diaphragm propellant tank used on NASA’s Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft using ANSYS and the correlation process implemented are presented. The thermal model was correlated to within +/- 3 Celsius of the thermal vacuum test data, and was determined sufficient to make future propellant predictions on MMS. The model was also found to be relatively sensitive to uncertainties in applied heat flux and mass knowledge of the tank. More work is needed to improve temperature predictions in the upper hemisphere of the propellant tank where predictions were found to be 2-2.5 Celsius lower than the test data. A road map for applying the model to predict propellant loads on the actual MMS spacecraft in 2017-2018 is also presented.