DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

AN ENTROPIC THEORY OF DAMAGE WITH APPLICATIONS TO CORROSION-FATIGUE STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY ASSESSMENT

This dissertation demonstrates an explanation of damage and reliability of critical components and structures within the second law of thermodynamics. The approach relies on the fundamentals of irreversible thermodynamics, specifically the concept of entropy generation due to materials degradation as an index of damage. All failure mechanisms that cause degradation, damage accumulation and ultimate failure share a common feature, namely energy dissipation. Energy dissipation, as a fundamental measure for irreversibility in a thermodynamic treatment of non-equilibrium processes, leads to and can be expressed in terms of entropy generation. The dissertation proposes a theory of damage by relating entropy generation to energy dissipation via generalized thermodynamic forces and thermodynamic fluxes that formally describes the resulting damage. Following the proposed theory of entropic damage, an approach to reliability and integrity characterization based on thermodynamic entropy is discussed. It is shown that the variability in the amount of the thermodynamic-based damage and uncertainties about the parameters of a distribution model describing the variability, leads to a more consistent and broader definition of the well know time-to-failure distribution in reliability engineering. As such it has been shown that the reliability function can be derived from the thermodynamic laws rather than estimated from the observed failure histories. Furthermore, using the superior advantages of the use of entropy generation and accumulation as a damage index in comparison to common observable markers of damage such as crack size, a method is proposed to explain the prognostics and health management (PHM) in terms of the entropic damage. The proposed entropic-based damage theory to reliability and integrity is then demonstrated through experimental validation. Using this theorem, the corrosion-fatigue entropy generation function is derived, evaluated and employed for structural integrity, reliability assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of Aluminum 7075-T651 specimens tested.

Shaping the Dicot Fruit: Molecular and Genomic Approaches to Fruit Development

The fruit is one of the most complex and important structures produced by flowering plants, and understanding the development and maturation process of fruits in different angiosperm species with diverse fruit structures is of immense interest. In the work presented here, molecular genetics and genomic analysis are used to explore the processes that form the fruit in two species: The model organism Arabidopsis and the diploid strawberry Fragaria vesca. One important basic question concerns the molecular genetic basis of fruit patterning. A long-standing model of Arabidopsis fruit (the gynoecium) patterning holds that auxin produced at the apex diffuses downward, forming a gradient that provides apical-basal positional information to specify different tissue types along the gynoecium’s length. The proposed gradient, however, has never been observed and the model appears inconsistent with a number of observations. I present a new, alternative model, wherein auxin acts to establish the adaxial-abaxial domains of the carpel primordia, which then ensures proper development of the final gynoecium. A second project utilizes genomics to identify genes that regulate fruit color by analyzing the genome sequences of Fragaria vesca, a species of wild strawberry. Shared and distinct SNPs among three F. vesca accessions were identified, providing a foundation for locating candidate mutations underlying phenotypic variations among different F. vesca accessions. Through systematic analysis of relevant SNP variants, a candidate SNP in FveMYB10 was identified that may underlie the fruit color in the yellow-fruited accessions, which was subsequently confirmed by functional assays. Our lab has previously generated extensive RNA-sequencing data that depict genome-scale gene expression profiles in F. vesca fruit and flower tissues at different developmental stages. To enhance the accessibility of this dataset, the web-based eFP software was adapted for this dataset, allowing visualization of gene expression in any tissues by user-initiated queries. Together, this thesis work proposes a well-supported new model of fruit patterning in Arabidopsis and provides further resources for F. vesca, including genome-wide variant lists and the ability to visualize gene expression. This work will facilitate future work linking traits of economic importance to specific genes and gaining novel insights into fruit patterning and development.

Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.