Evaluating Risks of Dam-Reservoir Systems Using Efficient Importance Sampling

The occurrence frequency of failure events serve as critical indexes representing the safety status of dam-reservoir systems. Although overtopping is the most common failure mode with significant consequences, this type of event, in most cases, has a small probability. Estimation of such rare event risks for dam-reservoir systems with crude Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation techniques requires a prohibitively large number of trials, where significant computational resources are required to reach the satisfied estimation results. Otherwise, estimation of the disturbances would not be accurate enough. In order to reduce the computation expenses and improve the risk estimation efficiency, an importance sampling (IS) based simulation approach is proposed in this dissertation to address the overtopping risks of dam-reservoir systems. Deliverables of this study mainly include the following five aspects: 1) the reservoir inflow hydrograph model; 2) the dam-reservoir system operation model; 3) the CMC simulation framework; 4) the IS-based Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation framework; and 5) the overtopping risk estimation comparison of both CMC and ISMC simulation. In a broader sense, this study meets the following three expectations: 1) to address the natural stochastic characteristics of the dam-reservoir system, such as the reservoir inflow rate; 2) to build up the fundamental CMC and ISMC simulation frameworks of the dam-reservoir system in order to estimate the overtopping risks; and 3) to compare the simulation results and the computational performance in order to demonstrate the ISMC simulation advantages. The estimation results of overtopping probability could be used to guide the future dam safety investigations and studies, and to supplement the conventional analyses in decision making on the dam-reservoir system improvements. At the same time, the proposed methodology of ISMC simulation is reasonably robust and proved to improve the overtopping risk estimation. The more accurate estimation, the smaller variance, and the reduced CPU time, expand the application of Monte Carlo (MC) technique on evaluating rare event risks for infrastructures.

Development of gene expression-based biomarkers of exposure to metals and pesticides in the freshwater amphipod Hyalella azteca

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a framework for monitoring risks of exposure and adverse effects of environmental stressors to populations or communities of interest. One tool of ERA is the biomarker, which is a characteristic of an organism that reliably indicates exposure to or effects of a stressor like chemical pollution. Traditional biomarkers which rely on characteristics at the tissue level and higher often detect only acute exposures to stressors. Sensitive molecular biomarkers may detect lower stressor levels than traditional biomarkers, which helps inform risk mitigation and restoration efforts before populations and communities are irreversibly affected. In this study I developed gene expression-based molecular biomarkers of exposure to metals and insecticides in the model toxicological freshwater amphipod Hyalella azteca. My goals were to not only create sensitive molecular biomarkers for these chemicals, but also to show the utility and versatility of H. azteca in molecular studies for toxicology and risk assessment. I sequenced and assembled the H. azteca transcriptome to identify reference and stress-response gene transcripts suitable for expression monitoring. I exposed H. azteca to sub-lethal concentrations of metals (cadmium and copper) and insecticides (DDT, permethrin, and imidacloprid). Reference genes used to create normalization factors were determined for each exposure using the programs BestKeeper, GeNorm, and NormFinder. Both metals increased expression of a nuclear transcription factor (Cnc), an ABC transporter (Mrp4), and a heat shock protein (Hsp90), giving evidence of general metal exposure signature. Cadmium uniquely increased expression of a DNA repair protein (Rad51) and increased Mrp4 expression more than copper (7-fold increase compared to 2-fold increase). Together these may be unique biomarkers distinguishing cadmium and copper exposures. DDT increased expression of Hsp90, Mrp4, and the immune response gene Lgbp. Permethrin increased expression of a cytochrome P450 (Cyp2j2) and decreased expression of the immune response gene Lectin-1. Imidacloprid did not affect gene expression. Unique biomarkers were seen for DDT and permethrin, but the genes studied were not sensitive enough to detect imidacloprid at the levels used here. I demonstrated that gene expression in H. azteca detects specific chemical exposures at sub-lethal concentrations, making expression monitoring using this amphipod a useful and sensitive biomarker for risk assessment of chemical exposure.