Balancing Belligerents or Feeding the Beast: Transforming Conflict Traps

Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring conflicts in Africa exhibit four behaviors characteristic of archetypal dynamic system structures. The overarching questions asked in this study are whether these patterns are robustly correlated with fundamental concepts of resiliency in dynamic systems that scale from micro-to macro levels; are they consistent with theoretical risk factors and causal mechanisms; and what are the policy implications. Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects. This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges to horizontally and vertically integrate across levels; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.

CHARACTERISTICS OF PRIVATE HIGH SCHOOLS FOR STUDENTS WITH EMOTIONAL DISABILITIES AND PERCEPTIONS OF THEIR PUBLIC SCHOOL CASE MANAGERS

Placement of students with disabilities in private special-education schools remains costly and controversial. This is particularly concerning, given the lack of research on the characteristics and quality of these restrictive settings. The purpose of this study was to identify the academic and vocational course offerings and behavioral supports provided in private special-education schools the serve high school students with emotional disabilities (ED). Second, the research examined the perceptions of the quality of services in these setting from the perspectives of public school case managers. Using a mixed-method design to collect data, 9 administrative heads of private special-education schools were surveyed, and 7 public school case managers were interviewed. Results indicated that (a) private special-education schools offer the basic academic core courses needed to meet graduation requirements, (b) vocational options for students enrolled in these schools are quite limited, (c) these schools provide a variety of behavioral interventions and supports, and (d) case managers are concerned with the lack of academic rigor and inconsistent programming at these schools but applauded the notion that students with ED are exiting with a high school diploma. Findings from this study may have policy implications for improving and developing programming options for high school students with ED.