5 resultados para nonlocal theories and models

em DRUM (Digital Repository at the University of Maryland)


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Resource allocation decisions are made to serve the current emergency without knowing which future emergency will be occurring. Different ordered combinations of emergencies result in different performance outcomes. Even though future decisions can be anticipated with scenarios, previous models follow an assumption that events over a time interval are independent. This dissertation follows an assumption that events are interdependent, because speed reduction and rubbernecking due to an initial incident provoke secondary incidents. The misconception that secondary incidents are not common has resulted in overlooking a look-ahead concept. This dissertation is a pioneer in relaxing the structural assumptions of independency during the assignment of emergency vehicles. When an emergency is detected and a request arrives, an appropriate emergency vehicle is immediately dispatched. We provide tools for quantifying impacts based on fundamentals of incident occurrences through identification, prediction, and interpretation of secondary incidents. A proposed online dispatching model minimizes the cost of moving the next emergency unit, while making the response as close to optimal as possible. Using the look-ahead concept, the online model flexibly re-computes the solution, basing future decisions on present requests. We introduce various online dispatching strategies with visualization of the algorithms, and provide insights on their differences in behavior and solution quality. The experimental evidence indicates that the algorithm works well in practice. After having served a designated request, the available and/or remaining vehicles are relocated to a new base for the next emergency. System costs will be excessive if delay regarding dispatching decisions is ignored when relocating response units. This dissertation presents an integrated method with a principle of beginning with a location phase to manage initial incidents and progressing through a dispatching phase to manage the stochastic occurrence of next incidents. Previous studies used the frequency of independent incidents and ignored scenarios in which two incidents occurred within proximal regions and intervals. The proposed analytical model relaxes the structural assumptions of Poisson process (independent increments) and incorporates evolution of primary and secondary incident probabilities over time. The mathematical model overcomes several limiting assumptions of the previous models, such as no waiting-time, returning rule to original depot, and fixed depot. The temporal locations flexible with look-ahead are compared with current practice that locates units in depots based on Poisson theory. A linearization of the formulation is presented and an efficient heuristic algorithm is implemented to deal with a large-scale problem in real-time.

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Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

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Tropospheric ozone (O3) adversely affects human health, reduces crop yields, and contributes to climate forcing. To limit these effects, the processes controlling O3 abundance as well as that of its precursor molecules must be fully characterized. Here, I examine three facets of O3 production, both in heavily polluted and remote environments. First, using in situ observations from the DISCOVER-AQ field campaign in the Baltimore/Washington region, I evaluate the emissions of the O3 precursors CO and NOx (NOx = NO + NO2) in the National Emissions Inventory (NEI). I find that CO/NOx emissions ratios derived from observations are 21% higher than those predicted by the NEI. Comparisons to output from the CMAQ model suggest that CO in the NEI is accurate within 15 ± 11%, while NOx emissions are overestimated by 51-70%, likely due to errors in mobile sources. These results imply that ambient ozone concentrations will respond more efficiently to NOx controls than current models suggest. I then investigate the source of high O3 and low H2O structures in the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP). A combination of in situ observations, satellite data, and models show that the high O3 results from photochemical production in biomass burning plumes from fires in tropical Southeast Asia and Central Africa; the low relative humidity results from large-scale descent in the tropics. Because these structures have frequently been attributed to mid-latitude pollution, biomass burning in the tropics likely contributes more to the radiative forcing of climate than previously believed. Finally, I evaluate the processes controlling formaldehyde (HCHO) in the TWP. Convective transport of near surface HCHO leads to a 33% increase in upper tropospheric HCHO mixing ratios; convection also likely increases upper tropospheric CH3OOH to ~230 pptv, enough to maintain background HCHO at ~75 pptv. The long-range transport of polluted air, with NO four times the convectively controlled background, intensifies the conversion of HO2 to OH, increasing OH by a factor of 1.4. Comparisons between the global chemistry model CAM-Chem and observations show that consistent underestimates of HCHO by CAM-Chem throughout the troposphere result from underestimates in both NO and acetaldehyde.

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Black students are consistently overrepresented in categories of academic underachievement. Parent engagement has long been touted as an effective strategy for improving the educational outcomes of Black children. However, most parent engagement research reflects deficit based perspectives frame Black parents as problems that must be fixed or mitigated before they can positively contribute to their children’s education. Consequently, parent engagement research and frameworks ignore the perspectives of Black parents and the assets they use to participate effectively in parent engagement. In this case study, I draw on individual and focus group interview data, documents, and observations, to examine how fifteen Black families, collectively known as FACE: 1) define and participate in parental engagement, 2) experience barriers to and opportunities for engagement, and 3) experience benefits of engagement for their children and their own personal development. Guided by Black Feminist and Critical Race Theories, I show how Black families in this study used a myriad of engagement strategies to improve their children’s educational experiences which were invisible to schools and how they used school-sanctioned engagement activities to meet their own objectives. Ultimately, I argue that school-centered parent engagement frameworks and models are ineffective for empowering Black families and accounting for the essential ways that these families contribute to the well-being of their children. Based on my findings, I discuss implications for theory, practice and policy, and research, and make recommendations for a more family-centered approach to parent engagement.

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This project proposes a feminist intervention in how affect and publics are theorized in public relations research. Drawing from extant literature, I argue that public relations theories of affect and publics have been apolitical and lack depth and context (Leitch & Motion, 2010a). Using the context of the online childhood vaccine debate, I illustrate several theories and concepts of the new feminist affective turn, as well as postmodern theories of affect, relevant to public relations research: (a) Public Feelings, “ugly” feelings, agency, and community (Cvetkovich, 2012; Ngai, 2007); (b) passionate politics (Mouffe, 2014); (c) postmodern assemblages, biopower, and body politics (Deleuze & Guattari, 1988; Foucault, 1984); (d) affective facts and logics of future threats (Massumi, 2010); and (e) affective ethics (Bertleson & Murphie, 2010). Scholarship in the areas of public relations, risk, feminist and postmodern affect theory, and the vaccine debate provided theoretical grounding for this project. My research questions asked: How is feminist affect theory embodied by mothers in the vaccine debate? How do mothers understand risks as affective facts in the vaccine debate (if at all)? What affective logics are used by mothers in the vaccine debate (if any)? And, What are sources of knowledge for mothers in the vaccine debate? Multi-sited online ethnographic methods were used to explore how feminist affect theory contributes to public relations research, including 29 one-on-one in-depth interviews with mothers of young children and participant observation of 15 online discussions about vaccines on parenting websites BabyCenter.com, TheBump.com, and WhatToExpect.com. I used snowball sampling to recruit interview participants and grounded theory (Glaser & Strauss, 1967) to analyze interview and online data. Results show that feminist affect theory contributes to theoretical and practical knowledge in public relations by politicizing and contextualizing understandings of publics and elucidating how affective facts and logics inform publics’ knowledge and choices, specifically in the context of risk. I also found evidence of suppression of dissent (Martin, 2015) and academic bias in vaccine debate research, which resulted in cultures of silence. Further areas of study included how specific contexts such as motherhood and issues of privilege and access affect publics’ experiences, knowledges, and choices.