DEVELOPMENT OF A DECISION/DEPLOYMENT SUPPORT TOOL FOR VARIABLE SPEED LIMITS IN RECURRENT CONGESTION

Traffic demand increases are pushing aging ground transportation infrastructures to their theoretical capacity. The result of this demand is traffic bottlenecks that are a major cause of delay on urban freeways. In addition, the queues associated with those bottlenecks increase the probability of a crash while adversely affecting environmental measures such as emissions and fuel consumption. With limited resources available for network expansion, traffic professionals have developed active traffic management systems (ATMS) in an attempt to mitigate the negative consequences of traffic bottlenecks. Among these ATMS strategies, variable speed limits (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) have been gaining international interests for their potential to improve safety, mobility, and environmental measures at freeway bottlenecks. Though previous studies have shown the tremendous potential of variable speed limit (VSL) and VSL paired with ramp metering (VSLRM) control, little guidance has been developed to assist decision makers in the planning phase of a congestion mitigation project that is considering VSL or VSLRM control. To address this need, this study has developed a comprehensive decision/deployment support tool for the application of VSL and VSLRM control in recurrently congested environments. The decision tool will assist practitioners in deciding the most appropriate control strategy at a candidate site, which candidate sites have the most potential to benefit from the suggested control strategy, and how to most effectively design the field deployment of the suggested control strategy at each implementation site. To do so, the tool is comprised of three key modules, (1) Decision Module, (2) Benefits Module, and (3) Deployment Guidelines Module. Each module uses commonly known traffic flow and geometric parameters as inputs to statistical models and empirically based procedures to provide guidance on the application of VSL and VSLRM at each candidate site. These models and procedures were developed from the outputs of simulated experiments, calibrated with field data. To demonstrate the application of the tool, a list of real-world candidate sites were selected from the Maryland State Highway Administration Mobility Report. Here, field data from each candidate site was input into the tool to illustrate the step-by-step process required for efficient planning of VSL or VSLRM control. The output of the tool includes the suggested control system at each site, a ranking of the sites based on the expected benefit-to-cost ratio, and guidelines on how to deploy the VSL signs, ramp meters, and detectors at the deployment site(s). This research has the potential to assist traffic engineers in the planning of VSL and VSLRM control, thus enhancing the procedure for allocating limited resources for mobility and safety improvements on highways plagued by recurrent congestion.

A STUDY OF HEAT TRANSFER AND FLOW CHARACTERISTICS OF RISING TAYLOR BUBBLES

Practical application of flow boiling to ground- and space-based thermal management systems hinges on the ability to predict the system’s heat removal capabilities under expected operating conditions. Research in this field has shown that the heat transfer coefficient within two-phase heat exchangers can be largely dependent on the experienced flow regime. This finding has inspired an effort to develop mechanistic heat transfer models for each flow pattern which are likely to outperform traditional empirical correlations. As a contribution to the effort, this work aimed to identify the heat transfer mechanisms for the slug flow regime through analysis of individual Taylor bubbles. An experimental apparatus was developed to inject single vapor Taylor bubbles into co-currently flowing liquid HFE 7100. The heat transfer was measured as the bubble rose through a 6 mm inner diameter heated tube using an infrared thermography technique. High-speed flow visualization was obtained and the bubble film thickness measured in an adiabatic section. Experiments were conducted at various liquid mass fluxes (43-200 kg/m2s) and gravity levels (0.01g-1.8g) to characterize the effect of bubble drift velocity on the heat transfer mechanisms. Variable gravity testing was conducted during a NASA parabolic flight campaign. Results from the experiments showed that the drift velocity strongly affects the hydrodynamics and heat transfer of single elongated bubbles. At low gravity levels, bubbles exhibited shapes characteristic of capillary flows and the heat transfer enhancement due to the bubble was dominated by conduction through the thin film. At moderate to high gravity, traditional Taylor bubbles provided small values of enhancement within the film, but large peaks in the wake heat transfer occurred due to turbulent vortices induced by the film plunging into the trailing liquid slug. Characteristics of the wake heat transfer profiles were analyzed and related to the predicted velocity field. Results were compared and shown to agree with numerical simulations of colleagues from EPFL, Switzerland. In addition, a preliminary study was completed on the effect of a Taylor bubble passing through nucleate flow boiling, showing that the thinning thermal boundary layer within the film suppressed nucleation, thereby decreasing the heat transfer coefficient.

THE PHYSICS OF IDEAS: INFERRING THE MECHANICS OF OPINION FORMATION FROM MACROSCOPIC STATISTICAL PATTERNS

In a microscopic setting, humans behave in rich and unexpected ways. In a macroscopic setting, however, distinctive patterns of group behavior emerge, leading statistical physicists to search for an underlying mechanism. The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the macroscopic patterns of competing ideas in order to discern the mechanics of how group opinions form at the microscopic level. First, we explore the competition of answers in online Q&A (question and answer) boards. We find that a simple individual-level model can capture important features of user behavior, especially as the number of answers to a question grows. Our model further suggests that the wisdom of crowds may be constrained by information overload, in which users are unable to thoroughly evaluate each answer and therefore tend to use heuristics to pick what they believe is the best answer. Next, we explore models of opinion spread among voters to explain observed universal statistical patterns such as rescaled vote distributions and logarithmic vote correlations. We introduce a simple model that can explain both properties, as well as why it takes so long for large groups to reach consensus. An important feature of the model that facilitates agreement with data is that individuals become more stubborn (unwilling to change their opinion) over time. Finally, we explore potential underlying mechanisms for opinion formation in juries, by comparing data to various types of models. We find that different null hypotheses in which jurors do not interact when reaching a decision are in strong disagreement with data compared to a simple interaction model. These findings provide conceptual and mechanistic support for previous work that has found mutual influence can play a large role in group decisions. In addition, by matching our models to data, we are able to infer the time scales over which individuals change their opinions for different jury contexts. We find that these values increase as a function of the trial time, suggesting that jurors and judicial panels exhibit a kind of stubbornness similar to what we include in our model of voting behavior.

FLOW REGIME DRIVEN THERMAL ENHANCEMENT IN INTERNALLY-GROOVED TUBES

Internally-grooved refrigeration tubes maximize tube-side evaporative heat transfer rates and have been identified as a most promising technology for integration into compact cold plates. Unfortunately, the absence of phenomenological insights and physical models hinders the extrapolation of grooved-tube performance to new applications. The success of regime-based heat transfer correlations for smooth tubes has motivated the current effort to explore the relationship between flow regimes and enhanced heat transfer in internally-grooved tubes. In this thesis, a detailed analysis of smooth and internally-grooved tube data reveals that performance improvement in internally-grooved tubes at low-to-intermediate mass flux is a result of early flow regime transition. Based on this analysis, a new flow regime map and corresponding heat transfer coefficient correlation, which account for the increased wetted angle, turbulence, and Gregorig effects unique to internally-grooved tubes, were developed. A two-phase test facility was designed and fabricated to validate the newly-developed flow regime map and regime-based heat transfer coefficient correlation. As part of this setup, a non-intrusive optical technique was developed to study the dynamic nature of two-phase flows. It was found that different flow regimes result in unique temporally varying film thickness profiles. Using these profiles, quantitative flow regime identification measures were developed, including the ability to explain and quantify the more subtle transitions that exist between dominant flow regimes. Flow regime data, based on the newly-developed method, and heat transfer coefficient data, using infrared thermography, were collected for two-phase HFE-7100 flow in horizontal 2.62mm - 8.84mm diameter smooth and internally-grooved tubes with mass fluxes from 25-300 kg/m²s, heat fluxes from 4-56 kW/m², and vapor qualities approaching 1. In total, over 6500 combined data points for the adiabatic and diabatic smooth and internally-grooved tubes were acquired. Based on results from the experiments and a reinterpretation of data from independent researchers, it was established that heat transfer enhancement in internally-grooved tubes at low-to-intermediate mass flux is primarily due to early flow regime transition to Annular flow. The regime-based heat transfer coefficient outperformed empirical correlations from the literature, with mean and absolute deviations of 4.0% and 32% for the full range of data collected.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION STUDY OF VIBRATION MITIGATION EFFECTIVENESS OF TUNED MASS DAMPERS FOR TRAFFIC SIGNAL MAST ARM STRUCTURES

Fatigue damage in the connections of single mast arm signal support structures is one of the primary safety concerns because collapse could result from fatigue induced cracking. This type of cantilever signal support structures typically has very light damping and excessively large wind-induced vibration have been observed. Major changes related to fatigue design were made in the 2001 AASHTO LRFD Specification for Structural Supports for Highway Signs, Luminaries, and Traffic Signals and supplemental damping devices have been shown to be promising in reducing the vibration response and thus fatigue load demand on mast arm signal support structures. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the effectiveness and optimal use of one type of damping devices termed tuned mass damper (TMD) in vibration response mitigation. Three prototype single mast arm signal support structures with 50-ft, 60-ft, and 70-ft respectively are selected for this numerical simulation study. In order to validate the finite element models for subsequent simulation study, analytical modeling of static deflection response of mast arm of the signal support structures was performed and found to be close to the numerical simulation results from beam element based finite element model. A 3-DOF dynamic model was then built using analytically derived stiffness matrix for modal analysis and time history analysis. The free vibration response and forced (harmonic) vibration response of the mast arm structures from the finite element model are observed to be in good agreement with the finite element analysis results. Furthermore, experimental test result from recent free vibration test of a full-scale 50-ft mast arm specimen in the lab is used to verify the prototype structure’s fundamental frequency and viscous damping ratio. After validating the finite element models, a series of parametric study were conducted to examine the trend and determine optimal use of tuned mass damper on the prototype single mast arm signal support structures by varying the following parameters: mass, frequency, viscous damping ratio, and location of TMD. The numerical simulation study results reveal that two parameters that influence most the vibration mitigation effectiveness of TMD on the single mast arm signal pole structures are the TMD frequency and its viscous damping ratio.

Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Stepped Crystal Surfaces

A primary goal of this dissertation is to understand the links between mathematical models that describe crystal surfaces at three fundamental length scales: The scale of individual atoms, the scale of collections of atoms forming crystal defects, and macroscopic scale. Characterizing connections between different classes of models is a critical task for gaining insight into the physics they describe, a long-standing objective in applied analysis, and also highly relevant in engineering applications. The key concept I use in each problem addressed in this thesis is coarse graining, which is a strategy for connecting fine representations or models with coarser representations. Often this idea is invoked to reduce a large discrete system to an appropriate continuum description, e.g. individual particles are represented by a continuous density. While there is no general theory of coarse graining, one closely related mathematical approach is asymptotic analysis, i.e. the description of limiting behavior as some parameter becomes very large or very small. In the case of crystalline solids, it is natural to consider cases where the number of particles is large or where the lattice spacing is small. Limits such as these often make explicit the nature of links between models capturing different scales, and, once established, provide a means of improving our understanding, or the models themselves. Finding appropriate variables whose limits illustrate the important connections between models is no easy task, however. This is one area where computer simulation is extremely helpful, as it allows us to see the results of complex dynamics and gather clues regarding the roles of different physical quantities. On the other hand, connections between models enable the development of novel multiscale computational schemes, so understanding can assist computation and vice versa. Some of these ideas are demonstrated in this thesis. The important outcomes of this thesis include: (1) a systematic derivation of the step-flow model of Burton, Cabrera, and Frank, with corrections, from an atomistic solid-on-solid-type models in 1+1 dimensions; (2) the inclusion of an atomistically motivated transport mechanism in an island dynamics model allowing for a more detailed account of mound evolution; and (3) the development of a hybrid discrete-continuum scheme for simulating the relaxation of a faceted crystal mound. Central to all of these modeling and simulation efforts is the presence of steps composed of individual layers of atoms on vicinal crystal surfaces. Consequently, a recurring theme in this research is the observation that mesoscale defects play a crucial role in crystal morphological evolution.

Development of Planning And Evaluation Models For Superstreets

Despite the extensive implementation of Superstreets on congested arterials, reliable methodologies for such designs remain unavailable. The purpose of this research is to fill the information gap by offering reliable tools to assist traffic professionals in the design of Superstreets with and without signal control. The entire tool developed in this thesis consists of three models. The first model is used to determine the minimum U-turn offset length for an Un-signalized Superstreet, given the arterial headway distribution of the traffic flows and the distribution of critical gaps among drivers. The second model is designed to estimate the queue size and its variation on each critical link in a signalized Superstreet, based on the given signal plan and the range of observed volumes. Recognizing that the operational performance of a Superstreet cannot be achieved without an effective signal plan, the third model is developed to produce a signal optimization method that can generate progression offsets for heavy arterial flows moving into and out of such an intersection design.