5 resultados para idiosyncratic volatility

em DRUM (Digital Repository at the University of Maryland)


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Drawing on historical research, personal interviews, performance analysis, and my own embodied experience as a participant-observer in several clown workshops, I explore the diverse historical influences on clown theatre as it is conceived today. I then investigate how the concept of embodied knowledge is reflected in red-nose clown pedagogy. Finally, I argue that through shared embodied knowledge spectators are able to perceive and appreciate the humor of clown theatre in performance. I propose that clown theatre represents a reaction to the eroding personal connections prompted by the so-called information age, and that humor in clown theatre is a revealing index of socio-cultural values, attitudes, dispositions, and concerns.

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I investigate the effects of information frictions in price setting decisions. I show that firms' output prices and wages are less sensitive to aggregate economic conditions when firms and workers cannot perfectly understand (or know) the aggregate state of the economy. Prices and wages respond with a lag to aggregate innovations because agents learn slowly about those changes, and this delayed adjustment in prices makes output and unemployment more sensitive to aggregate shocks. In the first chapter of this dissertation, I show that workers' noisy information about the state of the economy help us to explain why real wages are sluggish. In the context of a search and matching model, wages do not immediately respond to a positive aggregate shock because workers do not (yet) have enough information to demand higher wages. This increases firms' incentives to post more vacancies, and it makes unemployment volatile and sensitive to aggregate shocks. This mechanism is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment: the flexibility of wages for new hires and the cyclicality of the opportunity cost of employment. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model explains 60% of the overall unemployment volatility. Consistent with empirical evidence, the response of unemployment to TFP shocks predicted by my model is large, hump-shaped, and peaks one year after the TFP shock, while the response of the aggregate wage is weak and delayed, peaking after two years. In the second chapter of this dissertation, I study the role of information frictions and inventories in firms' price setting decisions in the context of a monetary model. In this model, intermediate goods firms accumulate output inventories, observe aggregate variables with one period lag, and observe their nominal input prices and demand at all times. Firms face idiosyncratic shocks and cannot perfectly infer the state of nature. After a contractionary nominal shock, nominal input prices go down, and firms accumulate inventories because they perceive some positive probability that the nominal price decline is due to a good productivity shock. This prevents firms' prices from decreasing and makes current profits, households' income, and aggregate demand go down. According to my model simulations, a 1% decrease in the money growth rate causes output to decline 0.17% in the first quarter and 0.38% in the second followed by a slow recovery to the steady state. Contractionary nominal shocks also have significant effects on total investment, which remains 1% below the steady state for the first 6 quarters.

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Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.

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Virtual contemporaries, Sergei Rachmaninoff and Sergei Prokofiev were pianists, steeped in the traditions of Russian pianism; recordings of both pianists-composers playing their own works are available. Although the composers can be perceived as having little in common, in fact both composed in classical forms, both had a strong lyrical sense and both had an unbreakable connection with their Russian heritage. Rachmaninoff was the last great representative of Russian late Romanticism as well as one of the finest pianists of his generation. He cultivated a sweepingly passionate and melodious idiom, with pronounced lyrical quality, expressive breath and structural ingenuity. Prokofiev, on the other hand, tried to push the Russian Romantic traditions to a point of exacerbation and caricature before experimenting with various kinds of modernism. Stressing simplicity, he helped invent Neo-Classicism. His melodies are essentially tonal with wide skips and sweeping long lines. Harmonically, he used triadic harmony full of dissonances, strange inversions, unusual spacings, and jarring juxtapositions. Writing in classical forms, he incorporated rhythmic vitality and lyrical elements into his music. I have chosen to perform five works by each composer, written in a variety of genres, including the sonata, the toccata, variations, the concerto. I also have divided the pieces into three recital programs to show the idiosyncratic characteristics of the composers. I have endeavored to select pieces based on the technical and artistic challenges that they offer, thereby allowing me to grow as a pianist and an artist. My goal is to gain a thorough understanding of not only the pieces but also the musical styles of both composers.

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During the second half of the nineteenth century, a series of remarkable advances in musical composition emerged in the works of such innovative spirits as Franz Liszt, Hector Berlioz and Richard Wagner. Their pioneering works exerted an extraordinary impact on the music of the subsequent generation of composers--of disparate nationalities-who were active at the dawn of the 20th century: Including most notably Claude-Achille Debussy, Gustav Mahler, Richard Strauss, and Alexander Nikolayevich Scriabin. These important musical figures, each one leaving an indelible and formative imprint on late-nineteenth century Romantic style, together launched the modern era in music. Scriabin stands alone as a transcendental visionary: His music, initiated in the fashion of Chopin and Liszt, wanders through the realms of Debussy and Wagner, and, ultimately abandoning late Romantic tradition, unlocks the heretofore unforeseen power of atonality, bitonality, polyrhythms and key-signature free compositions. Arguably, Scriabin's compositions count among the most innovative, idiosyncratic and bewitching of all time. The development of Scriabin's groundbreaking compositional style is best understood by means of his piano works, which comprise the majority of his oeuvre. Beyond the larger works-his twelve sonatas, a concerto and a fantasy-Scriabin's piano explorations are also represented by miniature gems: The mazurkas, impromptus, waltzes, poems, a polonaise, etudes, nocturnes, morceaux and, in particular, the preludes. Scriabin's 90 preludes for piano, arranged in several opus numbers, richly exemplify the striking evolution of his ingenious music, his idiosyncratic philosophy and his provocative personality.