Trade Shocks and Local Labor Markets' Linkages: Theory and Evidence

In the past few years, there has been a concern among economists and policy makers that increased openness to international trade affects some regions in a country more than others. Recent research has found that local labor markets more exposed to import competition through their initial employment composition experience worse outcomes in several dimensions such as, employment, wages, and poverty. Although there is evidence that regions within a country exhibit variation in the intensity with which they trade with each other and with other countries, trade linkages have been ignored in empirical analyses of the regional effects of trade, which focus on differences in employment composition. In this dissertation, I investigate how local labor markets' trade linkages shape the response of wages to international trade shocks. In the second chapter, I lay out a standard multi-sector general equilibrium model of trade, where domestic regions trade with each other and with the rest of the world. Using this benchmark, I decompose a region's wage change resulting from a national import cost shock into a direct effect on prices, holding other endogenous variables constant, and a series of general equilibrium effects. I argue the direct effect provides a natural measure of exposure to import competition within the model since it summarizes the effect of the shock on a region's wage as a function of initial conditions given by its trade linkages. I call my proposed measure linkage exposure while I refer to the measures used in previous studies as employment exposure. My theoretical analysis also shows that the assumptions previous studies make on trade linkages are not consistent with the standard trade model. In the third chapter, I calibrate the model to the Brazilian economy in 1991--at the beginning of a period of trade liberalization--to perform a series of experiments. In each of them, I reduce the Brazilian import cost by 1 percent in a single sector and I calculate how much of the cross-regional variation in counterfactual wage changes is explained by exposure measures. Over this set of experiments, employment exposure explains, for the median sector, 2 percent of the variation in counterfactual wage changes while linkage exposure explains 44 percent. In addition, I propose an estimation strategy that incorporates trade linkages in the analysis of the effects of trade on observed wages. In the model, changes in wages are completely determined by changes in market access, an endogenous variable that summarizes the real demand faced by a region. I show that a linkage measure of exposure is a valid instrument for changes in market access within Brazil. By using observed wage changes in Brazil between 1991-2000, my estimates imply that a region at the 25th percentile of the change in domestic market access induced by trade liberalization, experiences a 0.6 log points larger wage decline (or smaller wage increase) than a region at the 75th percentile. The estimates from a regression of wages changes on exposure imply that a region at the 25th percentile of exposure experiences a 3 log points larger wage decline (or smaller wage increase) than a region at the 75th percentile. I conclude that estimates based on exposure overstate the negative impact of trade liberalization on wages in Brazil. In the fourth chapter, I extend the standard model to allow for two types of workers according to their education levels: skilled and unskilled. I show that there is substantial variation across Brazilian regions in the skill premium. I use the exogenous variation provided by tariff changes to estimate the impact of market access on the skill premium. I find that decreased domestic market access resulting from trade liberalization resulted in a higher skill premium. I propose a mechanism to explain this result: that the manufacturing sector is relatively more intensive in unskilled labor and I show empirical evidence that supports this hypothesis.

The role of new information and communication technologies (ICTs) in information and communication in science. A conceptual framework and empirical study

Problem This dissertation presents a literature-based framework for communication in science (with the elements partners, purposes, message, and channel), which it then applies in and amends through an empirical study of how geoscientists use two social computing technologies (SCTs), blogging and Twitter (both general use and tweeting from conferences). How are these technologies used and what value do scientists derive from them? Method The empirical part used a two-pronged qualitative study, using (1) purposive samples of ~400 blog posts and ~1000 tweets and (2) a purposive sample of 8 geoscientist interviews. Blog posts, tweets, and interviews were coded using the framework, adding new codes as needed. The results were aggregated into 8 geoscientist case studies, and general patterns were derived through cross-case analysis. Results A detailed picture of how geoscientists use blogs and twitter emerged, including a number of new functions not served by traditional channels. Some highlights: Geoscientists use SCTs for communication among themselves as well as with the public. Blogs serve persuasion and personal knowledge management; Twitter often amplifies the signal of traditional communications such as journal articles. Blogs include tutorials for peers, reviews of basic science concepts, and book reviews. Twitter includes links to readings, requests for assistance, and discussions of politics and religion. Twitter at conferences provides live coverage of sessions. Conclusions Both blogs and Twitter are routine parts of scientists' communication toolbox, blogs for in-depth, well-prepared essays, Twitter for faster and broader interactions. Both have important roles in supporting community building, mentoring, and learning and teaching. The Framework of Communication in Science was a useful tool in studying these two SCTs in this domain. The results should encourage science administrators to facilitate SCT use of scientists in their organization and information providers to search SCT documents as an important source of information.

Using Quantitative Methods to Explore Political Leverage, Trade Policy, and Food Security: A Case Study of the Middle East

This dissertation explores why some states consistently secure food imports at prices higher than the world market price, thereby exacerbating food insecurity domestically. I challenge the idea that free market economics alone can explain these trade behaviors, and instead argue that states take into account political considerations when engaging in food trade that results in inefficient trade. In particular, states that are dependent on imports of staple food products, like cereals, are wary of the potential strategic value of these goods to exporters. I argue that this consideration, combined with the importing state’s ability to mitigate that risk through its own forms of political or economic leverage, will shape the behavior of the importing state and contribute to its potential for food security. In addition to cross-national analyses, I use case studies of the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Jordan to demonstrate how the political tools available to these importers affect their food security. The results of my analyses suggest that when import dependent states have access to forms of political leverage, they are more likely to trade efficiently, thereby increasing their potential for food security.

AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF USER ONLINE SECURITY BEHAVIOR: EVIDENCE FROM A UNIVERSITY

The ever-increasing number and severity of cybersecurity breaches makes it vital to understand the factors that make organizations vulnerable. Since humans are considered the weakest link in the cybersecurity chain of an organization, this study evaluates users’ individual differences (demographic factors, risk-taking preferences, decision-making styles and personality traits) to understand online security behavior. This thesis studies four different yet tightly related online security behaviors that influence organizational cybersecurity: device securement, password generation, proactive awareness and updating. A survey (N=369) of students, faculty and staff in a large mid-Atlantic U.S. public university identifies individual characteristics that relate to online security behavior and characterizes the higher-risk individuals that pose threats to the university’s cybersecurity. Based on these findings and insights from interviews with phishing victims, the study concludes with recommendations to help similat organizations increase end-user cybersecurity compliance and mitigate the risks caused by humans in the organizational cybersecurity chain.