3D Ionospheric Effects on HF Propagation and Heating

The thesis uses a three-dimensional, first-principles model of the ionosphere in combination with High Frequency (HF) raytracing model to address key topics related to the physics of HF propagation and artificial ionospheric heating. In particular: 1. Explores the effect of the ubiquitous electron density gradients caused by Medium Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (MSTIDs) on high-angle of incidence HF radio wave propagation. Previous studies neglected the all-important presence of horizontal gradients in both the cross- and down-range directions, which refract the HF waves, significantly changing their path through the ionosphere. The physics-based ionosphere model SAMI3/ESF is used to generate a self-consistently evolving MSTID that allows for the examination of the spatio-temporal progression of the HF radio waves in the ionosphere. 2. Tests the potential and determines engineering requirements for ground- based high power HF heaters to trigger and control the evolution of Equatorial Spread F (ESF). Interference from ESF on radio wave propagation through the ionosphere remains a critical issue on HF systems reliability. Artificial HF heating has been shown to create plasma density cavities in the ionosphere similar to those that may trigger ESF bubbles. The work explores whether HF heating may trigger or control ESF bubbles. 3. Uses the combined ionosphere and HF raytracing models to create the first self-consistent HF Heating model. This model is utilized to simulate results from an Arecibo experiment and to provide understanding of the physical mechanism behind observed phenomena. The insights gained provide engineering guidance for new artificial heaters that are being built for use in low to middle latitude regions. In accomplishing the above topics: (i) I generated a model MSTID using the SAMI3/ESF code, and used a raytrace model to examine the effects of the MSTID gradients on radio wave propagation observables; (ii) I implemented a three- dimensional HF heating model in SAMI3/ESF and used the model to determine whether HF heating could artificially generate an ESF bubble; (iii) I created the first self-consistent model for artificial HF heating using the SAMI3/ESF ionosphere model and the MoJo raytrace model and ran a series of simulations that successfully modeled the results of early artificial heating experiments at Arecibo.

SEMIPARAMETRIC METHODS IN THE ESTIMATION OF TAIL PROBABILITIES AND EXTREME QUANTILES

In quantitative risk analysis, the problem of estimating small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles arise ubiquitously in bio-surveillance, economics, natural disaster insurance actuary, quality control schemes, etc. A useful way to make an assessment of extreme events is to estimate the probabilities of exceeding large threshold values and extreme quantiles judged by interested authorities. Such information regarding extremes serves as essential guidance to interested authorities in decision making processes. However, in such a context, data are usually skewed in nature, and the rarity of exceedance of large threshold implies large fluctuations in the distribution's upper tail, precisely where the accuracy is desired mostly. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a branch of statistics that characterizes the behavior of upper or lower tails of probability distributions. However, existing methods in EVT for the estimation of small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles often lead to poor predictive performance in cases where the underlying sample is not large enough or does not contain values in the distribution's tail. In this dissertation, we shall be concerned with an out of sample semiparametric (SP) method for the estimation of small threshold probabilities and extreme quantiles. The proposed SP method for interval estimation calls for the fusion or integration of a given data sample with external computer generated independent samples. Since more data are used, real as well as artificial, under certain conditions the method produces relatively short yet reliable confidence intervals for small exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COLUMN DENSITY AND SURFACE MIXING RATIO FOR O3 AND NO2: IMPLICATIONS FOR SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND THE IMPACTS OF VERTICAL MIXING

Satellites have great potential for diagnosis of surface air quality conditions, though reduced sensitivity of satellite instrumentation to the lower troposphere currently impedes their applicability. One objective of the NASA DISCOVER-AQ project is to provide information relevant to improving our ability to relate satellite-observed columns to surface conditions for key trace gases and aerosols. In support of DISCOVER-AQ, this dissertation investigates the degree of correlation between O3 and NO2 column abundance and surface mixing ratio during the four DISCOVER-AQ deployments; characterize the variability of the aircraft in situ and model-simulated O3 and NO2 profiles; and use the WRF-Chem model to further investigate the role of boundary layer mixing in the column-surface connection for the Maryland 2011 deployment, and determine which of the available boundary layer schemes best captures the observations. Simple linear regression analyses suggest that O3 partial column observations from future satellite instruments with sufficient sensitivity to the lower troposphere may be most meaningful for surface air quality under the conditions associated with the Maryland 2011 campaign, which included generally deep, convective boundary layers, the least wind shear of all four deployments, and few geographical influences on local meteorology, with exception of bay breezes. Hierarchical clustering analysis of the in situ O3 and NO2 profiles indicate that the degree of vertical mixing (defined by temperature lapse rate) associated with each cluster exerted an important influence on the shapes of the median cluster profiles for O3, as well as impacted the column vs. surface correlations for many clusters for both O3 and NO2. However, comparisons to the CMAQ model suggest that, among other errors, vertical mixing is overestimated, causing too great a column-surface connection within the model. Finally, the WRF-Chem model, a meteorology model with coupled chemistry, is used to further investigate the impact of vertical mixing on the O3 and NO2 column-surface connection, for an ozone pollution event that occurred on July 26-29, 2011. Five PBL schemes were tested, with no one scheme producing a clear, consistent “best” comparison with the observations for PBLH and pollutant profiles; however, despite improvements, the ACM2 scheme continues to overestimate vertical mixing.