STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Regenerative Stormwater Conveyance: Design Implications of an Urban Case Demonstration in Baltimore, Maryland

This research-design thesis explores the implementation of Regenerative Stormwater Conveyance (RSC) as a retrofit of an existing impervious drainage system in a small catchment in the degraded Jones Falls watershed in Baltimore City. An introduction to RSC is provided, placing its development within a theoretical context of novel ecosystems, biomimicry and Nassauer and Opdam’s (2008) model of landscape innovation. The case site is in Baltimore’s Hampden neighborhood on City-owned land adjacent to rowhomes, open space and an access point to a popular wooded trail along a local stream. The design proposal employs RSC to retrofit an ill-performing stormwater system, simultaneously providing a range of ecological, social and economic services; water quantity, water quality and economic performance of the proposed RSC are quantified. While the proposed design is site-specific the model is adaptable for retrofitting other small-scale impervious drainage systems, providing a strategic tool in addressing Baltimore City’s stormwater challenges.

Statistical Analysis of Text Summarization Evaluation

This dissertation applies statistical methods to the evaluation of automatic summarization using data from the Text Analysis Conferences in 2008-2011. Several aspects of the evaluation framework itself are studied, including the statistical testing used to determine significant differences, the assessors, and the design of the experiment. In addition, a family of evaluation metrics is developed to predict the score an automatically generated summary would receive from a human judge and its results are demonstrated at the Text Analysis Conference. Finally, variations on the evaluation framework are studied and their relative merits considered. An over-arching theme of this dissertation is the application of standard statistical methods to data that does not conform to the usual testing assumptions.

Essays in Market Design

In this dissertation, I study three problems in market design: the allocation of resources to schools using deferred acceptance algorithms, the demand reduction of employees on centralized labor markets, and the alleviation of traffic congestion. I show how institutional and behavioral considerations specific to each problem can alleviate several practical limitations faced by current solutions. For the case of traffic congestion, I show experimentally that the proposed solution is effective. In Chapter 1, I investigate how school districts could assign resources to schools when it is desirable to provide stable assignments. An assignment is stable if there is no student currently assigned to a school that would prefer to be assigned to a different school that would admit him if it had the resources. Current assignment algorithms assume resources are fixed. I show how simple modifications to these algorithms produce stable allocations of resources and students to schools. In Chapter 2, I show how the negotiation of salaries within centralized labor markets using deferred acceptance algorithms eliminates the incentives of the hiring firms to strategically reduce their demand. It is well-known that it is impossible to eliminate these incentives for the hiring firms in markets without negotiation of salaries. Chapter 3 investigates how to achieve an efficient distribution of traffic congestion on a road network. Traffic congestion is the product of an externality: drivers do not consider the cost they impose on other drivers by entering a road. In theory, Pigouvian prices would solve the problem. In practice, however, these prices face two important limitations: i) the information required to calculate these prices is unavailable to policy makers and ii) these prices would effectively be new taxes that would transfer resources from the public to the government. I show how to construct congestion prices that retrieve the required information from the drivers and do not transfer resources to the government. I circumvent the limitations of Pigouvian prices by assuming that individuals make some mistakes when selecting routes and have a tendency towards truth-telling. Both assumptions are very robust observations in experimental economics.

A MORE COMPLETE STREET A STREET FOR EVERYONE TO ENJOY, NORTH EAST STREET, FREDERICK, MARYLAND – A DESIGN INVESTIGATION OF DIFFERENT STREET DESIGN THEORIES

This design-research thesis suggests that the improvement of North East Street performances by using Complete Streets, Green Street, Place Making and Context Sensitive Solution principles and practices. Heavily used by a variety of users, often conflicting with one another, University of Maryland Campus Drive would benefit from a major planning and design amelioration to meet the increasing demands of serving as a city main street. The goal of this thesis project is to prioritize the benefits for pedestrians in the right-of-way and improve the pedestrian experience. This goal also responds to the recent North East Street Extension Phrase I of economic renaissances. The goal of this design-research thesis will be achieved focusing on four aspects. First, the plans and designs will suggest to building mixed use blocks, increase the diversity of street economic types and convenience of people’s living. Second, design and plans will propose bike lanes, separate driving lanes from sidewalks and bike lanes by street tree planters, and narrow driving lanes to reduce vehicular traffic volume and speed in order to reduce pedestrian and vehicle conflicts. Third, plans and designs will introduce bioswales, living walls and raingardens to treat and reuse rain water. Finally, the plans and designs will seek to preserve local culture and history by adding murals and farmers market. The outcome of the design-research thesis project is expected to serve as an example of implementing Complete Streets, Green Street, Place Making and Context Sensitive Solution principles and practices in urban landscape, where transportation, environment and social needs interact with each other.