CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH A CONTINUOUS TREATMENT AND OUTCOME: ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATORS FOR PARAMETRIC DOSE-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS WITH APPLICATIONS.

Causal inference with a continuous treatment is a relatively under-explored problem. In this dissertation, we adopt the potential outcomes framework. Potential outcomes are responses that would be seen for a unit under all possible treatments. In an observational study where the treatment is continuous, the potential outcomes are an uncountably infinite set indexed by treatment dose. We parameterize this unobservable set as a linear combination of a finite number of basis functions whose coefficients vary across units. This leads to new techniques for estimating the population average dose-response function (ADRF). Some techniques require a model for the treatment assignment given covariates, some require a model for predicting the potential outcomes from covariates, and some require both. We develop these techniques using a framework of estimating functions, compare them to existing methods for continuous treatments, and simulate their performance in a population where the ADRF is linear and the models for the treatment and/or outcomes may be misspecified. We also extend the comparisons to a data set of lottery winners in Massachusetts. Next, we describe the methods and functions in the R package causaldrf using data from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) and Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) as examples. Additionally, we analyze the National Growth and Health Study (NGHS) data set and deal with the issue of missing data. Lastly, we discuss future research goals and possible extensions.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Predictors of Patient Activation Among Underserved Patients in a Nurse-managed Health Center: A Pilot Study

The concept of patient activation has gained traction as the term referring to patients who understand their role in the care process and have “the knowledge, skills and confidence” necessary to manage their illness over time (Hibbard & Mahoney, 2010). Improving health outcomes for vulnerable and underserved populations who bear a disproportionate burden of health disparities presents unique challenges for nurse practitioners who provide primary care in nurse-managed health centers. Evidence that activation improves patient self-management is prompting the search for theory-based self-management support interventions to activate patients for self-management, improve health outcomes, and sustain long-term gains. Yet, no previous studies investigated the relationship between Self-determination Theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 2000) and activation. The major purpose of this study, guided by the Triple Aim (Berwick, Nolan, & Whittington, 2008) and nested in the Chronic Care Model (Wagner et al., 2001), was to examine the degree to which two constructs– Autonomy Support and Autonomous Motivation– independently predicted Patient Activation, controlling for covariates. For this study, 130 nurse-managed health center patients completed an on-line 38-item survey onsite. The two independent measures were the 6-item Modified Health Care Climate Questionnaire (mHCCQ; Williams, McGregor, King, Nelson, & Glasgow, 2005; Cronbach’s alpha =0.89) and the 8-item adapted Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire (TSRQ; Williams, Freedman, & Deci, 1998; Cronbach’s alpha = 0.80). The Patient Activation Measure (PAM-13; Hibbard, Mahoney, Stock, & Tusler, 2005; Cronbach’s alpha = 0.89) was the dependent measure. Autonomy Support was the only significant predictor, explaining 19.1% of the variance in patient activation. Five of six autonomy support survey items regressed on activation were significant, illustrating autonomy supportive communication styles contributing to activation. These results suggest theory-based patient, provider, and system level interventions to enhance self-management in primary care and educational and professional development curricula. Future investigations should examine additional sources of autonomy support and different measurements of autonomous motivation to improve the predictive power of the model. Longitudinal analyses should be conducted to further understand the relationship between autonomy support and autonomous motivation with patient activation, based on the premise that patient activation will sustain behavior change.

Maternal Age and Infant Mortality for White, Black, and Mexican Mothers in the United States

Funding for Open Access provided by the UMD Libraries Open Access Publishing Fund.

Gender, Behavioral Assessment of Negative Reinforcement Driven Risk Taking Propensity, and Cigarette Smoking

Cigarette smoking remains the leading preventable cause of death and disability in the United States and most often is initiated during adolescence. An emerging body of research suggests that a negative reinforcement model may explain factors that contribute to tobacco use during adolescence and that negative reinforcement processes may contribute to tobacco use to a greater extent among female adolescents than among male adolescents. However, the extant literature both on the relationship between negative reinforcement processes and adolescent tobacco use as well as on the relationship between gender, negative reinforcement processes, and adolescent tobacco use is limited by the sole reliance on self-report measures of negative reinforcement processes that may contribute to cigarette smoking. The current study aimed to further disentangle the relationships between negative reinforcement based risk taking, gender and tobacco use during older adolescence by utilizing a behavioral analogue measure of negative reinforcement based risk taking, the Maryland Resource for the Behavioral Utilization of the Reinforcement of Negative Stimuli (MRBURNS). Specifically, we examined the relationship between pumps on the MRBURNS, an indicator of risk taking, and smoking status as well as the interaction between MRBURNS pumps and gender for predicting smoking status. Participants included 103 older adolescents (n=51 smokers, 50.5% female, Age (M(SD) = 19.41(1.06)) who all attended one experimental session during which they completed the MRBURNS as well as self-report measures of tobacco use, nicotine dependence, alcohol use, depression, and anxiety. We utilized binary logistic regressions to examine the relationship between MRBURNS pumps and smoking status as well as the interactive effect of MRBURNS pumps and gender for predicting smoking status. Controlling for relevant covariates, pumps on the MRBURNS did not significantly predict smoking status and the interaction between pumps on the MRBURNS and gender also did not significantly predict smoking status. These findings highlight the importance of future research examining various task modifications to the MRBURNS as well as the need for replications of this study with larger, more diverse samples.