DISSOLVED AND GASEOUS FLUXES OF CARBON AND NITROGEN FROM URBAN WATERSHEDS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

Carbon and nitrogen loading to streams and rivers contributes to eutrophication as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) production in streams, rivers and estuaries. My dissertation consists of three research chapters, which examine interactions and potential trade-offs between water quality and greenhouse gas production in urban streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. My first research project focused on drivers of carbon export and quality in an urbanized river. I found that watershed carbon sources (soils and leaves) contributed more than in-stream production to overall carbon export, but that periods of high in-stream productivity were important over seasonal and daily timescales. My second research chapter examined the influence of urban storm-water and sanitary infrastructure on dissolved and gaseous carbon and nitrogen concentrations in headwater streams. Gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) were consistently super-saturated throughout the course of a year. N2O concentrations in streams draining septic systems were within the high range of previously published values. Total dissolved nitrogen concentration was positively correlated with CO2 and N2O and negatively correlated with CH4. My third research chapter examined a long-term (15-year) record of GHG emissions from soils in rural forests, urban forest, and urban lawns in Baltimore, MD. CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions showed positive correlations with temperature at each site. Lawns were a net source of CH4 + N2O, whereas forests were net sinks. Gross CO2 fluxes were also highest in lawns, in part due to elevated growing-season temperatures. While land cover influences GHG emissions from soils, the overall role of land cover on this flux is very small (< 0.5%) compared with gases released from anthropogenic sources, according to a recent GHG budget of the Baltimore metropolitan area, where this study took place.

Behavioral Response to Environmental Taxation: Evidence from the Transportation Sector

This dissertation analyzes how individuals respond to the introduction of taxation aimed to reduce vehicle pollution, greenhouse gases and traffic. The first chapter analyzes a vehicle registration tax based on emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a major greenhouse gas, adopted in the UK in 2001 and subject to major changes in the following years. I identify the impact of the policy on new vehicle registrations and carbon emissions, compared to alternative measures. Results show that consumers respond to the tax by purchasing cleaner cars, but a carbon tax generating the same revenue would further reduce carbon emissions. The second chapter looks at a pollution charge (polluting vehicles pay to enter the city) and a congestion charge (all vehicles pay) adopted in 2008 and 2011 in Milan, Italy, and how they affected the concentration of nitrogen dioxides (NOx). I use data from pollution monitoring stations to measure the change between areas adopting the tax and other areas. Results show that in the first quarter of their introduction, both policies decreased NOx concentration in a range of -8% and -5%, but the effect declines over time, especially in the case of the pollution charge. The third chapter examines a trial conducted in 2005 in the Seattle, WA, area, in which vehicle trips by 276 volunteer households were recorded with a GPS device installed in their vehicles. Households received a monetary endowment which they used to pay a toll for each mile traveled: the toll varied with the time of the day, the day of the week and the type of road used. Using information on driving behavior, I show that in the first week a $0.10 toll per mile reduces the number of miles driven by around 7%, but the effect lasts only few weeks at most. The effect is mainly driven by a reduction in highway miles during trips from work to home, and it is strongly influenced by past driving behavior, income, the size of the initial endowment and the number of children in the household.

The Effect of Wood Burial and Submersion on Decomposition: Implications for Reducing Carbon Emissions

Gemstone Team Carbon Sinks

Agriculture, Environmental Incentive Payments, and Water Quality in the Chesapeake Bay

Nonpoint sources (NPS) pollution from agriculture is the leading source of water quality impairment in U.S. rivers and streams, and a major contributor to lakes, wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters (U.S. EPA 2016). Using data from a survey of farmers in Maryland, this dissertation examines the effects of a cost sharing policy designed to encourage adoption of conservation practices that reduce NPS pollution in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This watershed is the site of the largest Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) implemented to date, making it an important setting in the U.S. for water quality policy. I study two main questions related to the reduction of NPS pollution from agriculture. First, I examine the issue of additionality of cost sharing payments by estimating the direct effect of cover crop cost sharing on the acres of cover crops, and the indirect effect of cover crop cost sharing on the acres of two other practices: conservation tillage and contour/strip cropping. A two-stage simultaneous equation approach is used to correct for voluntary self-selection into cost sharing programs and account for substitution effects among conservation practices. Quasi-random Halton sequences are employed to solve the system of equations for conservation practice acreage and to minimize the computational burden involved. By considering patterns of agronomic complementarity or substitution among conservation practices (Blum et al., 1997; USDA SARE, 2012), this analysis estimates water quality impacts of the crowding-in or crowding-out of private investment in conservation due to public incentive payments. Second, I connect the econometric behavioral results with model parameters from the EPA’s Chesapeake Bay Program to conduct a policy simulation on water quality effects. I expand the econometric model to also consider the potential loss of vegetative cover due to cropland incentive payments, or slippage (Lichtenberg and Smith-Ramirez, 2011). Econometric results are linked with the Chesapeake Bay Program watershed model to estimate the change in abatement levels and costs for nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment under various behavioral scenarios. Finally, I use inverse sampling weights to derive statewide abatement quantities and costs for each of these pollutants, comparing these with TMDL targets for agriculture in Maryland.

Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

AN EXAMINATION OF HYDROXYL RADICAL: OUR CURRENT UNDERSTANDING OF THE OXIDATIVE CAPACITY OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGH EMPIRICAL, BOX, AND GLOBAL MODELING APPROACHES

Hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary oxidant in the troposphere, initiating the removal of numerous atmospheric species including greenhouse gases, pollutants that are detrimental to human health, and ozone-depleting substances. Because of the complexity of OH chemistry, models vary widely in their OH chemistry schemes and resulting methane (CH4) lifetimes. The current state of knowledge concerning global OH abundances is often contradictory. This body of work encompasses three projects that investigate tropospheric OH from a modeling perspective, with the goal of improving the tropospheric community’s knowledge of the atmospheric lifetime of CH4. First, measurements taken during the airborne CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) field campaign are used to evaluate OH in global models. A box model constrained to measured variables is utilized to infer concentrations of OH along the flight track. Results are used to evaluate global model performance, suggest against the existence of a proposed “OH Hole” in the tropical Western Pacific, and investigate implications of high O3/low H2O filaments on chemical transport to the stratosphere. While methyl chloroform-based estimates of global mean OH suggest that models are overestimating OH, we report evidence that these models are actually underestimating OH in the tropical Western Pacific. The second project examines OH within global models to diagnose differences in CH4 lifetime. I developed an approach to quantify the roles of OH precursor field differences (O3, H2O, CO, NOx, etc.) using a neural network method. This technique enables us to approximate the change in CH4 lifetime resulting from variations in individual precursor fields. The dominant factors driving CH4 lifetime differences between models are O3, CO, and J(O3-O1D). My third project evaluates the effect of climate change on global fields of OH using an empirical model. Observations of H2O and O3 from satellite instruments are combined with a simulation of tropical expansion to derive changes in global mean OH over the past 25 years. We find that increasing H2O and increasing width of the tropics tend to increase global mean OH, countering the increasing CH4 sink and resulting in well-buffered global tropospheric OH concentrations.