THE DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERNATIONAL WATER AND SANITATION INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS: DEFINING “QUALITY AT ENTRY” OF WORLD BANK PROJECTS.

Over the past 15 years, the number of international development projects aimed at combating global poverty has increased significantly. Within the water and sanitation sector however, and despite heightened global attention and an increase in the number of infrastructure projects, over 800 million people remain without access to appropriate water and sanitation facilities. The majority of donor aid in the water supply and sanitation sector of developing countries is delivered through standalone projects. The quality of projects at the design and preparation stage is a critical determinant in meeting project objectives. The quality of projects at early stage of design, widely referred to as quality at entry (QAE), however remains unquantified and largely subjective. This research argues that water and sanitation infrastructure projects in the developing world tend to be designed in the absence of a specific set of actions that ensure high QAE, and consequently have relatively high rates of failure. This research analyzes 32 cases of water and sanitation infrastructure projects implemented with partial or full World Bank financing globally from 2000 – 2010. The research uses categorical data analysis, regression analysis and descriptive analysis to examine perceived linkages between project QAE and project development outcomes and determines which upstream project design factors are likely to impact the QAE of international development projects in water supply and sanitation. The research proposes a number of specific design stage actions that can be incorporated into the formal review process of water and sanitation projects financed by the World Bank or other international development partners.

Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.