Lifetime and distribution of ozone and related pollutants in the eastern United States

Most major cities in the eastern United States have air quality deemed unhealthy by the EPA under a set of regulations known as the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The worst air quality in Maryland is measured in Edgewood, MD, a small community located along the Chesapeake Bay and generally downwind of Baltimore during hot, summertime days. Direct measurements and numerical simulations were used to investigate how meteorology and chemistry conspire to create adverse levels of photochemical smog especially at this coastal location. Ozone (O3) and oxidized reactive nitrogen (NOy), a family of ozone precursors, were measured over the Chesapeake Bay during a ten day experiment in July 2011 to better understand the formation of ozone over the Bay and its impact on coastal communities such as Edgewood. Ozone over the Bay during the afternoon was 10% to 20% higher than the closest upwind ground sites. A combination of complex boundary layer dynamics, deposition rates, and unaccounted marine emissions play an integral role in the regional maximum of ozone over the Bay. The CAMx regional air quality model was assessed and enhanced through comparison with data from NASA’s 2011 DISCOVER-AQ field campaign. Comparisons show a model overestimate of NOy by +86.2% and a model underestimate of formaldehyde (HCHO) by –28.3%. I present a revised model framework that better captures these observations and the response of ozone to reductions of precursor emissions. Incremental controls on electricity generating stations will produce greater benefits for surface ozone while additional controls on mobile sources may yield less benefit because cars emit less pollution than expected. Model results also indicate that as ozone concentrations improve with decreasing anthropogenic emissions, the photochemical lifetime of tropospheric ozone increases. The lifetime of ozone lengthens because the two primary gas-phase sinks for odd oxygen (Ox ≈ NO2 + O3) – attack by hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2) on ozone and formation of nitrate – weaken with decreasing pollutant emissions. This unintended consequence of air quality regulation causes pollutants to persist longer in the atmosphere, and indicates that pollutant transport between states and countries will likely play a greater role in the future.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Larval Atlantic Menhaden on the East Coast of the United States

Atlantic Menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus is a commercially and ecologically important forage fish abundant on the Atlantic Coast of the United States. We conducted spatial and temporal analyses of larval Atlantic Menhaden using data collected from two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs during 1977-1987 and 1999-2013 to construct indices of larval abundance and survival over time, evaluate how environmental factors affect early life survival, and examine how larvae are distributed in space to gain knowledge on spawning and larval dispersal. Over time, we found larval abundance to increase, while early life survival declined. Coastal temperature, wind speed, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation were found to potentially explain some of this decline in survival. Over both periods, we found evidence spawning predominantly occurs near shore, from New York to North Carolina, increasing in intensity southwards. While the general spatial patterns were consistent, we observed some localized variation and overall expansion of occupied area by larvae.

EXPOSURE TO EXTREME HEAT EVENTS AND CHRONIC RESPIRATORY DISEASES AMONG A NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF THE UNITED STATES POPULATION

Previous studies have shown that extreme weather events are on the rise in response to our changing climate. Such events are projected to become more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting. A consistent exposure metric for measuring these extreme events as well as information regarding how these events lead to ill health are needed to inform meaningful adaptation strategies that are specific to the needs of local communities. Using federal meteorological data corresponding to 17 years (1997-2013) of the National Health Interview Survey, this research: 1) developed a location-specific exposure metric that captures individuals’ “exposure” at a spatial scale that is consistent with publicly available county-level health outcome data; 2) characterized the United States��� population in counties that have experienced higher numbers of extreme heat events and thus identified population groups likely to experience future events; and 3) developed an empirical model describing the association between exposure to extreme heat events and hay fever. This research confirmed that the natural modes of forcing (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation), seasonality, urban-rural classification, and division of country have an impact on the number extreme heat events recorded. Also, many of the areas affected by extreme heat events are shown to have a variety of vulnerable populations including women of childbearing age, people who are poor, and older adults. Lastly, this research showed that adults in the highest quartile of exposure to extreme heat events had a 7% increased odds of hay fever compared to those in the lowest quartile, suggesting that exposure to extreme heat events increases risk of hay fever among US adults.