Balancing Belligerents or Feeding the Beast: Transforming Conflict Traps

Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring conflicts in Africa exhibit four behaviors characteristic of archetypal dynamic system structures. The overarching questions asked in this study are whether these patterns are robustly correlated with fundamental concepts of resiliency in dynamic systems that scale from micro-to macro levels; are they consistent with theoretical risk factors and causal mechanisms; and what are the policy implications. Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects. This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges to horizontally and vertically integrate across levels; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.

FAMILY CHARACTERISTICS, STATE PROGRAM EFFECTIVENESS, AND REPORT OF INADEQUATE CARE AMONG FAMILIES OF YOUNG CHILDREN WITH HEARING LOSS

Approximately 1.6 per 1,000 newborns in the U.S. are born with hearing loss. Congenital hearing loss poses a risk to their speech, language, cognitive, and social-emotional development. Early detection and intervention can improve outcomes. Every state has an Early Hearing Detection and Intervention program (EHDI) to promote and track screening, audiological assessments and linkage to early intervention. However, a large percentage of children are “lost to system (LTS),” meaning that they did not receive recommended care or that it was not reported. This study used data from the 2009-2010 National Survey of Children with Special Health Care Needs and data from the 2011 EHDI Hearing Screening and Follow-Up Survey to examine how 1) family characteristics; 2) EHDI program effectiveness, as determined by LTS percentages; and 3) the family conditions of education and poverty are related to parental report of inadequate care. The sample comprised 684 children between the ages of 0 and 5 years with hearing loss. The results indicated that living in states with less effective EHDI programs was associated with an increased likelihood of not receiving early intervention services (EIS) and of reporting poor family-centered communication. Sibling classification was associated with both receipt of EIS and report of unmet need. Single mothers were less likely to report increased difficulties accessing care. Poor and less educated families, assessed separately, who lived in states with less effective EHDI programs, were more likely to report non-receipt of EIS and less likely to report unmet need as compared to similar families living in states with more effective programs. Poor families living in states with less effective programs were more likely to report less coordinated care than were poor families living in states with more effective programs. This study supports the conclusion that both family characteristics and the effectiveness of state programs affect quality of care outcomes. It appears that less effective state programs affect disadvantaged families’ service receipt report more than that of advantaged families. These findings are important because they may provide insights into the development of targeted efforts to improve the system of care for children with hearing loss.