DEVELOPMENT OF A DECISION/DEPLOYMENT SUPPORT TOOL FOR VARIABLE SPEED LIMITS IN RECURRENT CONGESTION

Traffic demand increases are pushing aging ground transportation infrastructures to their theoretical capacity. The result of this demand is traffic bottlenecks that are a major cause of delay on urban freeways. In addition, the queues associated with those bottlenecks increase the probability of a crash while adversely affecting environmental measures such as emissions and fuel consumption. With limited resources available for network expansion, traffic professionals have developed active traffic management systems (ATMS) in an attempt to mitigate the negative consequences of traffic bottlenecks. Among these ATMS strategies, variable speed limits (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) have been gaining international interests for their potential to improve safety, mobility, and environmental measures at freeway bottlenecks. Though previous studies have shown the tremendous potential of variable speed limit (VSL) and VSL paired with ramp metering (VSLRM) control, little guidance has been developed to assist decision makers in the planning phase of a congestion mitigation project that is considering VSL or VSLRM control. To address this need, this study has developed a comprehensive decision/deployment support tool for the application of VSL and VSLRM control in recurrently congested environments. The decision tool will assist practitioners in deciding the most appropriate control strategy at a candidate site, which candidate sites have the most potential to benefit from the suggested control strategy, and how to most effectively design the field deployment of the suggested control strategy at each implementation site. To do so, the tool is comprised of three key modules, (1) Decision Module, (2) Benefits Module, and (3) Deployment Guidelines Module. Each module uses commonly known traffic flow and geometric parameters as inputs to statistical models and empirically based procedures to provide guidance on the application of VSL and VSLRM at each candidate site. These models and procedures were developed from the outputs of simulated experiments, calibrated with field data. To demonstrate the application of the tool, a list of real-world candidate sites were selected from the Maryland State Highway Administration Mobility Report. Here, field data from each candidate site was input into the tool to illustrate the step-by-step process required for efficient planning of VSL or VSLRM control. The output of the tool includes the suggested control system at each site, a ranking of the sites based on the expected benefit-to-cost ratio, and guidelines on how to deploy the VSL signs, ramp meters, and detectors at the deployment site(s). This research has the potential to assist traffic engineers in the planning of VSL and VSLRM control, thus enhancing the procedure for allocating limited resources for mobility and safety improvements on highways plagued by recurrent congestion.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Effects of Drive Speed Modulation on Dynamics of Slender Rotating Structures

Slender rotating structures are used in many mechanical systems. These structures can suffer from undesired vibrations that can affect the components and safety of a system. Furthermore, since some these structures can operate in a harsh environment, installation and operation of sensors that are needed for closed-loop and collocated control schemes may not be feasible. Hence, the need for an open-loop non-collocated scheme for control of the dynamics of these structures. In this work, the effects of drive speed modulation on the dynamics of slender rotating structures are studied. Slender rotating structures are a type of mechanical rotating structures, whose length to diameter ratio is large. For these structures, the torsion mode natural frequencies can be low. In particular, for isotropic structures, the first few torsion mode frequencies can be of the same order as the first few bending mode frequencies. These situations can be conducive for energy transfer amongst bending and torsion modes. Scenarios with torsional vibrations experienced by rotating structures with continuous rotor-stator contact occur in many rotating mechanical systems. Drill strings used in the oil and gas industry are an example of rotating structures whose torsional vibrations can be deleterious to the components of the drilling system. As a novel approach to mitigate undesired vibrations, the effects of adding a sinusoidal excitation to the rotation speed of a drill string are studied. A portion of the drill string located within a borewell is considered and this rotating structure has been modeled as an extended Jeffcott rotor and a sinusoidal excitation has been added to the drive speed of the rotor. After constructing a three-degree-of-freedom model to capture lateral and torsional motions, the equations of motions are reduced to a single differential equation governing torsional vibrations during continuous stator contact. An approximate solution has been obtained by making use of the Method of Direct Partition of Motions with the governing torsional equation of motion. The results showed that for a rotor undergoing forward or backward whirling, the addition of sinusoidal excitation to the drive speed can cause an increase in the equivalent torsional stiffness, smooth the discontinuous friction force at contact, and reduce the regions of negative slope in the friction coefficient variation with respect to speed. Experiments with a scaled drill string apparatus have also been conducted and the experimental results show good agreement with the numerical results obtained from the developed models. These findings suggest that the extended Jeffcott rotordynamics model can be useful for studies of rotor dynamics in situations with continuous rotor-stator contact. Furthermore, the results obtained suggest that the drive speed modulation scheme can have value for attenuating drill-string vibrations.