Optimal Budget-Constrained Sample Allocation for Selection Decisions with Multiple Uncertain Attributes

A decision-maker, when faced with a limited and fixed budget to collect data in support of a multiple attribute selection decision, must decide how many samples to observe from each alternative and attribute. This allocation decision is of particular importance when the information gained leads to uncertain estimates of the attribute values as with sample data collected from observations such as measurements, experimental evaluations, or simulation runs. For example, when the U.S. Department of Homeland Security must decide upon a radiation detection system to acquire, a number of performance attributes are of interest and must be measured in order to characterize each of the considered systems. We identified and evaluated several approaches to incorporate the uncertainty in the attribute value estimates into a normative model for a multiple attribute selection decision. Assuming an additive multiple attribute value model, we demonstrated the idea of propagating the attribute value uncertainty and describing the decision values for each alternative as probability distributions. These distributions were used to select an alternative. With the goal of maximizing the probability of correct selection we developed and evaluated, under several different sets of assumptions, procedures to allocate the fixed experimental budget across the multiple attributes and alternatives. Through a series of simulation studies, we compared the performance of these allocation procedures to the simple, but common, allocation procedure that distributed the sample budget equally across the alternatives and attributes. We found the allocation procedures that were developed based on the inclusion of decision-maker knowledge, such as knowledge of the decision model, outperformed those that neglected such information. Beginning with general knowledge of the attribute values provided by Bayesian prior distributions, and updating this knowledge with each observed sample, the sequential allocation procedure performed particularly well. These observations demonstrate that managing projects focused on a selection decision so that the decision modeling and the experimental planning are done jointly, rather than in isolation, can improve the overall selection results.

Joint Optimization for Social Content Delivery in Wireless Networks

Over the last decade, success of social networks has significantly reshaped how people consume information. Recommendation of contents based on user profiles is well-received. However, as users become dominantly mobile, little is done to consider the impacts of the wireless environment, especially the capacity constraints and changing channel. In this dissertation, we investigate a centralized wireless content delivery system, aiming to optimize overall user experience given the capacity constraints of the wireless networks, by deciding what contents to deliver, when and how. We propose a scheduling framework that incorporates content-based reward and deliverability. Our approach utilizes the broadcast nature of wireless communication and social nature of content, by multicasting and precaching. Results indicate this novel joint optimization approach outperforms existing layered systems that separate recommendation and delivery, especially when the wireless network is operating at maximum capacity. Utilizing limited number of transmission modes, we significantly reduce the complexity of the optimization. We also introduce the design of a hybrid system to handle transmissions for both system recommended contents ('push') and active user requests ('pull'). Further, we extend the joint optimization framework to the wireless infrastructure with multiple base stations. The problem becomes much harder in that there are many more system configurations, including but not limited to power allocation and how resources are shared among the base stations ('out-of-band' in which base stations transmit with dedicated spectrum resources, thus no interference; and 'in-band' in which they share the spectrum and need to mitigate interference). We propose a scalable two-phase scheduling framework: 1) each base station obtains delivery decisions and resource allocation individually; 2) the system consolidates the decisions and allocations, reducing redundant transmissions. Additionally, if the social network applications could provide the predictions of how the social contents disseminate, the wireless networks could schedule the transmissions accordingly and significantly improve the dissemination performance by reducing the delivery delay. We propose a novel method utilizing: 1) hybrid systems to handle active disseminating requests; and 2) predictions of dissemination dynamics from the social network applications. This method could mitigate the performance degradation for content dissemination due to wireless delivery delay. Results indicate that our proposed system design is both efficient and easy to implement.