3 resultados para Sensitive Dependence On Initial Conditions
em DRUM (Digital Repository at the University of Maryland)
Resumo:
In order to power our planet for the next century, clean energy technologies need to be developed and deployed. Photovoltaic solar cells, which convert sunlight into electricity, are a clear option; however, they currently supply 0.1% of the US electricity due to the relatively high cost per Watt of generation. Thus, our goal is to create more power from a photovoltaic device, while simultaneously reducing its price. To accomplish this goal, we are creating new high efficiency anti-reflection coatings that allow more of the incident sunlight to be converted to electricity, using simple and inexpensive coating techniques that enable reduced manufacturing costs. Traditional anti-reflection coatings (consisting of thin layers of non-absorbing materials) rely on the destructive interference of the reflected light, causing more light to enter the device and subsequently get absorbed. While these coatings are used on nearly all commercial cells, they are wavelength dependent and are deposited using expensive processes that require elevated temperatures, which increase production cost and can be detrimental to some temperature sensitive solar cell materials. We are developing two new classes of anti-reflection coatings (ARCs) based on textured dielectric materials: (i) a transparent, flexible paper technology that relies on optical scattering and reduced refractive index contrast between the air and semiconductor and (ii) silicon dioxide (SiO2) nanosphere arrays that rely on collective optical resonances. Both techniques improve solar cell absorption and ultimately yield high efficiency, low cost devices. For the transparent paper-based ARCs, we have recently shown that they improve solar cell efficiencies for all angles of incident illumination reducing the need for costly tracking of the sun’s position. For a GaAs solar cell, we achieved a 24% improvement in the power conversion efficiency using this simple coating. Because the transparent paper is made from an earth abundant material (wood pulp) using an easy, inexpensive and scalable process, this type of ARC is an excellent candidate for future solar technologies. The coatings based on arrays of dielectric nanospheres also show excellent potential for inexpensive, high efficiency solar cells. The fabrication process is based on a Meyer rod rolling technique, which can be performed at room-temperature and applied to mass production, yielding a scalable and inexpensive manufacturing process. The deposited monolayer of SiO2 nanospheres, having a diameter of 500 nm on a bare Si wafer, leads to a significant increase in light absorption and a higher expected current density based on initial simulations, on the order of 15-20%. With application on a Si solar cell containing a traditional anti-reflection coating (Si3N4 thin-film), an additional increase in the spectral current density is observed, 5% beyond what a typical commercial device would achieve. Due to the coupling between the spheres originated from Whispering Gallery Modes (WGMs) inside each nanosphere, the incident light is strongly coupled into the high-index absorbing material, leading to increased light absorption. Furthermore, the SiO2 nanospheres scatter and diffract light in such a way that both the optical and electrical properties of the device have little dependence on incident angle, eliminating the need for solar tracking. Because the layer can be made with an easy, inexpensive, and scalable process, this anti-reflection coating is also an excellent candidate for replacing conventional technologies relying on complicated and expensive processes.
Resumo:
I investigate the effects of information frictions in price setting decisions. I show that firms' output prices and wages are less sensitive to aggregate economic conditions when firms and workers cannot perfectly understand (or know) the aggregate state of the economy. Prices and wages respond with a lag to aggregate innovations because agents learn slowly about those changes, and this delayed adjustment in prices makes output and unemployment more sensitive to aggregate shocks. In the first chapter of this dissertation, I show that workers' noisy information about the state of the economy help us to explain why real wages are sluggish. In the context of a search and matching model, wages do not immediately respond to a positive aggregate shock because workers do not (yet) have enough information to demand higher wages. This increases firms' incentives to post more vacancies, and it makes unemployment volatile and sensitive to aggregate shocks. This mechanism is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment: the flexibility of wages for new hires and the cyclicality of the opportunity cost of employment. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model explains 60% of the overall unemployment volatility. Consistent with empirical evidence, the response of unemployment to TFP shocks predicted by my model is large, hump-shaped, and peaks one year after the TFP shock, while the response of the aggregate wage is weak and delayed, peaking after two years. In the second chapter of this dissertation, I study the role of information frictions and inventories in firms' price setting decisions in the context of a monetary model. In this model, intermediate goods firms accumulate output inventories, observe aggregate variables with one period lag, and observe their nominal input prices and demand at all times. Firms face idiosyncratic shocks and cannot perfectly infer the state of nature. After a contractionary nominal shock, nominal input prices go down, and firms accumulate inventories because they perceive some positive probability that the nominal price decline is due to a good productivity shock. This prevents firms' prices from decreasing and makes current profits, households' income, and aggregate demand go down. According to my model simulations, a 1% decrease in the money growth rate causes output to decline 0.17% in the first quarter and 0.38% in the second followed by a slow recovery to the steady state. Contractionary nominal shocks also have significant effects on total investment, which remains 1% below the steady state for the first 6 quarters.
Resumo:
In the past few years, there has been a concern among economists and policy makers that increased openness to international trade affects some regions in a country more than others. Recent research has found that local labor markets more exposed to import competition through their initial employment composition experience worse outcomes in several dimensions such as, employment, wages, and poverty. Although there is evidence that regions within a country exhibit variation in the intensity with which they trade with each other and with other countries, trade linkages have been ignored in empirical analyses of the regional effects of trade, which focus on differences in employment composition. In this dissertation, I investigate how local labor markets' trade linkages shape the response of wages to international trade shocks. In the second chapter, I lay out a standard multi-sector general equilibrium model of trade, where domestic regions trade with each other and with the rest of the world. Using this benchmark, I decompose a region's wage change resulting from a national import cost shock into a direct effect on prices, holding other endogenous variables constant, and a series of general equilibrium effects. I argue the direct effect provides a natural measure of exposure to import competition within the model since it summarizes the effect of the shock on a region's wage as a function of initial conditions given by its trade linkages. I call my proposed measure linkage exposure while I refer to the measures used in previous studies as employment exposure. My theoretical analysis also shows that the assumptions previous studies make on trade linkages are not consistent with the standard trade model. In the third chapter, I calibrate the model to the Brazilian economy in 1991--at the beginning of a period of trade liberalization--to perform a series of experiments. In each of them, I reduce the Brazilian import cost by 1 percent in a single sector and I calculate how much of the cross-regional variation in counterfactual wage changes is explained by exposure measures. Over this set of experiments, employment exposure explains, for the median sector, 2 percent of the variation in counterfactual wage changes while linkage exposure explains 44 percent. In addition, I propose an estimation strategy that incorporates trade linkages in the analysis of the effects of trade on observed wages. In the model, changes in wages are completely determined by changes in market access, an endogenous variable that summarizes the real demand faced by a region. I show that a linkage measure of exposure is a valid instrument for changes in market access within Brazil. By using observed wage changes in Brazil between 1991-2000, my estimates imply that a region at the 25th percentile of the change in domestic market access induced by trade liberalization, experiences a 0.6 log points larger wage decline (or smaller wage increase) than a region at the 75th percentile. The estimates from a regression of wages changes on exposure imply that a region at the 25th percentile of exposure experiences a 3 log points larger wage decline (or smaller wage increase) than a region at the 75th percentile. I conclude that estimates based on exposure overstate the negative impact of trade liberalization on wages in Brazil. In the fourth chapter, I extend the standard model to allow for two types of workers according to their education levels: skilled and unskilled. I show that there is substantial variation across Brazilian regions in the skill premium. I use the exogenous variation provided by tariff changes to estimate the impact of market access on the skill premium. I find that decreased domestic market access resulting from trade liberalization resulted in a higher skill premium. I propose a mechanism to explain this result: that the manufacturing sector is relatively more intensive in unskilled labor and I show empirical evidence that supports this hypothesis.