The role of the Indian Ocean sector and sea surface salinity for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system

The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate the potential downstream influence of the Indian Ocean (IO) on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts through the oceanic pathway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), atmospheric teleconnections between the IO and Pacific, and assimilation of IO observations. Also the impact of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indo-Pacific region is assessed to try to address known problems with operational coupled model precipitation forecasts. The ITF normally drains warm fresh water from the Pacific reducing the mixed layer depths (MLD). A shallower MLD amplifies large-scale oceanic Kelvin/Rossby waves thus giving ~10% larger response and more realistic ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability compared to observed when the ITF is open. In order to isolate the impact of the IO sector atmospheric teleconnections to ENSO, experiments are contrasted that selectively couple/decouple the interannual forcing in the IO. The interannual variability of IO SST forcing is responsible for 3 month lagged widespread downwelling in the Pacific, assisted by off-equatorial curl, leading to warmer NINO3 SST anomaly and improved ENSO validation (significant from 3-9 months). Isolating the impact of observations in the IO sector using regional assimilation identifies large-scale warming in the IO that acts to intensify the easterlies of the Walker circulation and increases pervasive upwelling across the Pacific, cooling the eastern Pacific, and improving ENSO validation (r ~ 0.05, RMS~0.08C). Lastly, the positive impact of more accurate fresh water forcing is demonstrated to address inadequate precipitation forecasts in operational coupled models. Aquarius SSS assimilation improves the mixed layer density and enhances mixing, setting off upwelling that eventually cools the eastern Pacific after 6 months, counteracting the pervasive warming of most coupled models and significantly improving ENSO validation from 5-11 months. In summary, the ITF oceanic pathway, the atmospheric teleconnection, the impact of observations in the IO, and improved Indo-Pacific SSS are all responsible for ENSO forecast improvements, and so each aspect of this study contributes to a better overall understanding of ENSO. Therefore, the upstream influence of the IO should be thought of as integral to the functioning of ENSO phenomenon.

Afro-Cuban Bata Drum Aesthetics: Developing Individual and Group Technique, Sound and Identity

The Lucumi religion (also Santeria and Regla de Ocha) developed in 19th-century colonial Cuba, by syncretizing elements of Catholicism with the Yoruba worship of orisha. When fully initiated, santeros (priests) actively participate in religious ceremonies by periodically being possessed or "mounted" by a patron saint or orisha, usually within the context of a drumming ritual, known as a toque de santo, bembe, or tambor. Within these rituals, there is a clearly defined goal of trance possession, though its manifestation is not the sole measure of success or failure. Rather than focusing on the fleeting, exciting moments that immediately precede the arrival of an orisha in the form of a possession trance, this thesis investigates the entire four- to six-hour musical performance that is central to the ceremony. It examines the brief pauses, the moments of reduced intensity, the slow but deliberate build-ups of energy and excitement, and even the periods when novices are invited to perform the sacred bata drums, and places these moments on an equal footing with the more dynamic periods where possession is imminent or in progress. This document approaches Lucumi ritual from the viewpoint of bata drummers, ritual specialists who, during the course of a toque de santo, exercise wide latitude in determining the shape of the event. Known as omo Ana (children of the orisha Ana who is manifest in drums and rhythms), bata drummers comprise a fraternity that is accessible only through ritual initiation. Though they are sensitive to the desires of the many participants during a toque de santo, and indeed make their living by satisfying the expectations of their hosts, many of the drummers' activities are inwardly focused on the cultivation and preservation of this fraternity. Occasionally interfering with spirit possession, and other expectations of the participants, these aberrant activities include teaching and learning, developing group identity or signature sound, and achieving a state of intimacy among the musicians known as "communitas."

A von Bertalanffy Based Model for the Estimation of Oyster (Crassostrea virginica) Growth on Restored Oyster Reefs in Chesapeake Bay

A model to estimate the mean monthly growth of Crassostrea virginica oysters in Chesapeake Bay was developed. This model is based on the classic von Bertalanffy growth function, however the growth constant is changed every monthly timestep in response to short term changes in temperature and salinity. Using a dynamically varying growth constant allows the model to capture seasonal oscillations in growth, and growth responses to changing environmental conditions that previous applications of the von Bertalanffy model do not capture. This model is further expanded to include an estimation of Perkinsus marinus impacts on growth rates as well as estimations of ecosystem services provided by a restored oyster bar over time. The model was validated by comparing growth estimates from the model to oyster shell height observations from a variety of restoration sites in the upper Chesapeake Bay. Without using the P. marinus impact on growth, the model consistently overestimates mean oyster growth. However, when P. marinus effects are included in the model, the model estimates match the observed mean shell height closely for at least the first 3 years of growth. The estimates of ecosystem services suggested by this model imply that even with high levels of mortality on an oyster reef, the ecosystem services provided by that reef can still be maintained by growth for several years. Because larger oyster filter more water than smaller ones, larger oysters contribute more to the filtration and nutrient removal ecosystem services of the reef. Therefore a reef with an abundance of larger oysters will provide better filtration and nutrient removal. This implies that if an oyster restoration project is trying to improve water quality through oyster filtration, it is important to maintain the larger older oysters on the reef.