Lifetime and distribution of ozone and related pollutants in the eastern United States

Most major cities in the eastern United States have air quality deemed unhealthy by the EPA under a set of regulations known as the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The worst air quality in Maryland is measured in Edgewood, MD, a small community located along the Chesapeake Bay and generally downwind of Baltimore during hot, summertime days. Direct measurements and numerical simulations were used to investigate how meteorology and chemistry conspire to create adverse levels of photochemical smog especially at this coastal location. Ozone (O3) and oxidized reactive nitrogen (NOy), a family of ozone precursors, were measured over the Chesapeake Bay during a ten day experiment in July 2011 to better understand the formation of ozone over the Bay and its impact on coastal communities such as Edgewood. Ozone over the Bay during the afternoon was 10% to 20% higher than the closest upwind ground sites. A combination of complex boundary layer dynamics, deposition rates, and unaccounted marine emissions play an integral role in the regional maximum of ozone over the Bay. The CAMx regional air quality model was assessed and enhanced through comparison with data from NASA’s 2011 DISCOVER-AQ field campaign. Comparisons show a model overestimate of NOy by +86.2% and a model underestimate of formaldehyde (HCHO) by –28.3%. I present a revised model framework that better captures these observations and the response of ozone to reductions of precursor emissions. Incremental controls on electricity generating stations will produce greater benefits for surface ozone while additional controls on mobile sources may yield less benefit because cars emit less pollution than expected. Model results also indicate that as ozone concentrations improve with decreasing anthropogenic emissions, the photochemical lifetime of tropospheric ozone increases. The lifetime of ozone lengthens because the two primary gas-phase sinks for odd oxygen (Ox ≈ NO2 + O3) – attack by hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2) on ozone and formation of nitrate – weaken with decreasing pollutant emissions. This unintended consequence of air quality regulation causes pollutants to persist longer in the atmosphere, and indicates that pollutant transport between states and countries will likely play a greater role in the future.

ESSAYS IN ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE

This dissertation studies technological change in the context of energy and environmental economics. Technology plays a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. Chapter 1 estimates a structural model of the car industry that allows for endogenous product characteristics to investigate how gasoline taxes, R&D subsidies and competition affect fuel efficiency and vehicle prices in the medium-run, both through car-makers' decisions to adopt technologies and through their investments in knowledge capital. I use technology adoption and automotive patents data for 1986-2006 to estimate this model. I show that 92% of fuel efficiency improvements between 1986 and 2006 were driven by technology adoption, while the role of knowledge capital is largely to reduce the marginal production costs of fuel-efficient cars. A counterfactual predicts that an additional $1/gallon gasoline tax in 2006 would have increased the technology adoption rate, and raised average fuel efficiency by 0.47 miles/gallon, twice the annual fuel efficiency improvement in 2003-2006. An R&D subsidy that would reduce the marginal cost of knowledge capital by 25% in 2006 would have raised investment in knowledge capital. This subsidy would have raised fuel efficiency only by 0.06 miles/gallon in 2006, but would have increased variable profits by $2.3 billion over all firms that year. Passenger vehicle fuel economy standards in the United States will require substantial improvements in new vehicle fuel economy over the next decade. Economic theory suggests that vehicle manufacturers adopt greater fuel-saving technologies for vehicles with larger market size. Chapter 2 documents a strong connection between market size, measured by sales, and technology adoption. Using variation consumer demographics and purchasing pattern to account for the endogeneity of market size, we find that a 10 percent increase in market size raises vehicle fuel efficiency by 0.3 percent, as compared to a mean improvement of 1.4 percent per year over 1997-2013. Historically, fuel price and demographic-driven market size changes have had large effects on technology adoption. Furthermore, fuel taxes would induce firms to adopt fuel-saving technologies on their most efficient cars, thereby polarizing the fuel efficiency distribution of the new vehicle fleet.