Applying Mathematical Models to Study the Role of the Immune System in Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia

Although tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) such as imatinib have transformed chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) into a chronic condition, these therapies are not curative in the majority of cases. Most patients must continue TKI therapy indefinitely, a requirement that is both expensive and that compromises a patient's quality of life. While TKIs are known to reduce leukemic cells' proliferative capacity and to induce apoptosis, their effects on leukemic stem cells, the immune system, and the microenvironment are not fully understood. A more complete understanding of their global therapeutic effects would help us to identify any limitations of TKI monotherapy and to address these issues through novel combination therapies. Mathematical models are a complementary tool to experimental and clinical data that can provide valuable insights into the underlying mechanisms of TKI therapy. Previous modeling efforts have focused on CML patients who show biphasic and triphasic exponential declines in BCR-ABL ratio during therapy. However, our patient data indicates that many patients treated with TKIs show fluctuations in BCR-ABL ratio yet are able to achieve durable remissions. To investigate these fluctuations, we construct a mathematical model that integrates CML with a patient's autologous immune response to the disease. In our model, we define an immune window, which is an intermediate range of leukemic concentrations that lead to an effective immune response against CML. While small leukemic concentrations provide insufficient stimulus, large leukemic concentrations actively suppress a patient's immune system, thus limiting it's ability to respond. Our patient data and modeling results suggest that at diagnosis, a patient's high leukemic concentration is able to suppress their immune system. TKI therapy drives the leukemic population into the immune window, allowing the patient's immune cells to expand and eventually mount an efficient response against the residual CML. This response drives the leukemic population below the immune window, causing the immune population to contract and allowing the leukemia to partially recover. The leukemia eventually reenters the immune window, thus stimulating a sequence of weaker immune responses as the two populations approach equilibrium. We hypothesize that a patient's autologous immune response to CML may explain the fluctuations in BCR-ABL ratio that are regularly seen during TKI therapy. These fluctuations may serve as a signature of a patient's individual immune response to CML. By applying our modeling framework to patient data, we are able to construct an immune profile that can then be used to propose patient-specific combination therapies aimed at further reducing a patient's leukemic burden. Our characterization of a patient's anti-leukemia immune response may be especially valuable in the study of drug resistance, treatment cessation, and combination therapy.

Multi-level, Multi-stage and Stochastic Optimization Models for Energy Conservation in Buildings for Federal, State and Local Agencies

Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) project selection is made difficult given real-world constraints, limited resources to implement savings retrofits, various suppliers in the market and project financing alternatives. Many of these energy efficient retrofit projects should be viewed as a series of investments with annual returns for these traditionally risk-averse agencies. Given a list of ECMs available, federal, state and local agencies must determine how to implement projects at lowest costs. The most common methods of implementation planning are suboptimal relative to cost. Federal, state and local agencies can obtain greater returns on their energy conservation investment over traditional methods, regardless of the implementing organization. This dissertation outlines several approaches to improve the traditional energy conservations models. Any public buildings in regions with similar energy conservation goals in the United States or internationally can also benefit greatly from this research. Additionally, many private owners of buildings are under mandates to conserve energy e.g., Local Law 85 of the New York City Energy Conservation Code requires any building, public or private, to meet the most current energy code for any alteration or renovation. Thus, both public and private stakeholders can benefit from this research. The research in this dissertation advances and presents models that decision-makers can use to optimize the selection of ECM projects with respect to the total cost of implementation. A practical application of a two-level mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) improves the current best practice for agencies concerned with making the most cost-effective selection leveraging energy services companies or utilities. The two-level model maximizes savings to the agency and profit to the energy services companies (Chapter 2). An additional model presented leverages a single congressional appropriation to implement ECM projects (Chapter 3). Returns from implemented ECM projects are used to fund additional ECM projects. In these cases, fluctuations in energy costs and uncertainty in the estimated savings severely influence ECM project selection and the amount of the appropriation requested. A risk aversion method proposed imposes a minimum on the number of “of projects completed in each stage. A comparative method using Conditional Value at Risk is analyzed. Time consistency was addressed in this chapter. This work demonstrates how a risk-based, stochastic, multi-stage model with binary decision variables at each stage provides a much more accurate estimate for planning than the agency’s traditional approach and deterministic models. Finally, in Chapter 4, a rolling-horizon model allows for subadditivity and superadditivity of the energy savings to simulate interactive effects between ECM projects. The approach makes use of inequalities (McCormick, 1976) to re-express constraints that involve the product of binary variables with an exact linearization (related to the convex hull of those constraints). This model additionally shows the benefits of learning between stages while remaining consistent with the single congressional appropriations framework.

ENHANCEMENT OF THERMAL INACTIVATION OF CRONOBACTER SAKAZAKII WITH INCLUSION OF PARABENS

Parabens are a family of p-hydroxybenzoic acid esters, which have antimicrobial activity over a broad pH range (4-8). This study was designed to evaluate the enhanced thermal inactivation of Cronobacter sakazakii by the inclusion of “parabens” and to ultimately develop mathematical models to describe this effect. A heat-resistant strain, Cronobacter sakazakii 607, was heated at three mild heating temperatures in combination with treatments with five parabens in various concentrations. Results showed the presence of parabens significantly enhanced thermal inactivation in a concentration-dependent manner, and the effect increased with increasing alkyl chain length. The concentration of parabens, alkyl side chain length, and heating temperature acted synergistically, causing bacterial inactivation even at low temperatures that were not effective in killing C. sakazakii. The survival data were used to develop primary and secondary mathematical models that accurately describe how this synergistic activity can be applied in the food industry.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

SOCIAL AND ECOLOGICAL FACTORS INFLUENCING COLLECTIVE BEHAVIOR IN GIANT DANIO

A fundamental problem in biology is understanding how and why things group together. Collective behavior is observed on all organismic levels - from cells and slime molds, to swarms of insects, flocks of birds, and schooling fish, and in mammals, including humans. The long-term goal of this research is to understand the functions and mechanisms underlying collective behavior in groups. This dissertation focuses on shoaling (aggregating) fish. Shoaling behaviors in fish confer foraging and anti-predator benefits through social cues from other individuals in the group. However, it is not fully understood what information individuals receive from one another or how this information is propagated throughout a group. It is also not fully understood how the environmental conditions and perturbations affect group behaviors. The specific research objective of this dissertation is to gain a better understanding of how certain social and environmental factors affect group behaviors in fish. I focus on two ecologically relevant decision-making behaviors: (i) rheotaxis, or orientation with respect to a flow, and (ii) startle response, a rapid response to a perceived threat. By integrating behavioral and engineering paradigms, I detail specifics of behavior in giant danio Devario aequipinnatus (McClelland 1893), and numerically analyze mathematical models that may be extended to group behavior for fish in general, and potentially other groups of animals as well. These models that predict behavior data, as well as generate additional, testable hypotheses. One of the primary goals of neuroethology is to study an organism's behavior in the context of evolution and ecology. Here, I focus on studying ecologically relevant behaviors in giant danio in order to better understand collective behavior in fish. The experiments in this dissertation provide contributions to fish ecology, collective behavior, and biologically-inspired robotics.

Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Stepped Crystal Surfaces

A primary goal of this dissertation is to understand the links between mathematical models that describe crystal surfaces at three fundamental length scales: The scale of individual atoms, the scale of collections of atoms forming crystal defects, and macroscopic scale. Characterizing connections between different classes of models is a critical task for gaining insight into the physics they describe, a long-standing objective in applied analysis, and also highly relevant in engineering applications. The key concept I use in each problem addressed in this thesis is coarse graining, which is a strategy for connecting fine representations or models with coarser representations. Often this idea is invoked to reduce a large discrete system to an appropriate continuum description, e.g. individual particles are represented by a continuous density. While there is no general theory of coarse graining, one closely related mathematical approach is asymptotic analysis, i.e. the description of limiting behavior as some parameter becomes very large or very small. In the case of crystalline solids, it is natural to consider cases where the number of particles is large or where the lattice spacing is small. Limits such as these often make explicit the nature of links between models capturing different scales, and, once established, provide a means of improving our understanding, or the models themselves. Finding appropriate variables whose limits illustrate the important connections between models is no easy task, however. This is one area where computer simulation is extremely helpful, as it allows us to see the results of complex dynamics and gather clues regarding the roles of different physical quantities. On the other hand, connections between models enable the development of novel multiscale computational schemes, so understanding can assist computation and vice versa. Some of these ideas are demonstrated in this thesis. The important outcomes of this thesis include: (1) a systematic derivation of the step-flow model of Burton, Cabrera, and Frank, with corrections, from an atomistic solid-on-solid-type models in 1+1 dimensions; (2) the inclusion of an atomistically motivated transport mechanism in an island dynamics model allowing for a more detailed account of mound evolution; and (3) the development of a hybrid discrete-continuum scheme for simulating the relaxation of a faceted crystal mound. Central to all of these modeling and simulation efforts is the presence of steps composed of individual layers of atoms on vicinal crystal surfaces. Consequently, a recurring theme in this research is the observation that mesoscale defects play a crucial role in crystal morphological evolution.