Balancing Belligerents or Feeding the Beast: Transforming Conflict Traps

Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring conflicts in Africa exhibit four behaviors characteristic of archetypal dynamic system structures. The overarching questions asked in this study are whether these patterns are robustly correlated with fundamental concepts of resiliency in dynamic systems that scale from micro-to macro levels; are they consistent with theoretical risk factors and causal mechanisms; and what are the policy implications. Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects. This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges to horizontally and vertically integrate across levels; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.

Adaptive Mechanisms of an Estuarine Synechococcus based on Genomics, Transcriptomics, and Proteomics

Picocyanobacteria are important phytoplankton and primary producers in the ocean. Although extensive work has been conducted for picocyanobacteria (i.e. Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus) in coastal and oceanic waters, little is known about those found in estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay. Synechococcus CB0101, an estuarine isolate, is more tolerant to shifts in temperature, salinity, and metal toxicity than coastal and oceanic Synechococcus strains, WH7803 and WH7805. Further, CB0101 has a greater sensitivity to high light intensity, likely due to its adaptation to low light environments. A complete and annotated genome sequence of CB0101 was completed to explore its genetic capacity and to serve as a basis for further molecular analysis. Comparative genomics between CB0101, WH7803, and WH7805 show that CB0101 contains more genes involved in regulation, sensing, and stress response. At the transcript and protein level, CB0101 regulates its metabolic pathways, transport systems, and sensing mechanisms when nitrate and phosphate are limited. Zinc toxicity led to oxidative stress and a global down regulation of photosystems and the translation machinery. From the stress response studies seven chromosomal toxin-antitoxin (TA) genes, were identified in CB0101, which led to the discovery of TA genes in several marine Synechococcus strains. The activation of the relB2/relE1 TA system allows CB0101 to arrest its growth under stressful conditions, but the growth arrest is reversible, once the stressful environment dissipates. The genome of CB0101 contains a relatively large number of genomic island (GI) genes compared to known marine Synechococcus genomes. Interestingly, a massive shutdown (255 out of 343) of GI genes occurred after CB0101 was infected by a lytic phage. On the other hand, phage-encoded host-like proteins (hli, psbA, ThyX) were highly expressed upon phage infection. This research provides new evidence that estuarine Synechococcus like CB0101 have inherited unique genetic machinery, which allows them to be versatile in the estuarine environment.