Understanding information use in multiattribute decision making

An inference task in one in which some known set of information is used to produce an estimate about an unknown quantity. Existing theories of how humans make inferences include specialized heuristics that allow people to make these inferences in familiar environments quickly and without unnecessarily complex computation. Specialized heuristic processing may be unnecessary, however; other research suggests that the same patterns in judgment can be explained by existing patterns in encoding and retrieving memories. This dissertation compares and attempts to reconcile three alternate explanations of human inference. After justifying three hierarchical Bayesian version of existing inference models, the three models are com- pared on simulated, observed, and experimental data. The results suggest that the three models capture different patterns in human behavior but, based on posterior prediction using laboratory data, potentially ignore important determinants of the decision process.

SEQUENTIAL DECISIONS AND PREDICTIONS IN NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING

Natural language processing has achieved great success in a wide range of ap- plications, producing both commercial language services and open-source language tools. However, most methods take a static or batch approach, assuming that the model has all information it needs and makes a one-time prediction. In this disser- tation, we study dynamic problems where the input comes in a sequence instead of all at once, and the output must be produced while the input is arriving. In these problems, predictions are often made based only on partial information. We see this dynamic setting in many real-time, interactive applications. These problems usually involve a trade-off between the amount of input received (cost) and the quality of the output prediction (accuracy). Therefore, the evaluation considers both objectives (e.g., plotting a Pareto curve). Our goal is to develop a formal understanding of sequential prediction and decision-making problems in natural language processing and to propose efficient solutions. Toward this end, we present meta-algorithms that take an existent batch model and produce a dynamic model to handle sequential inputs and outputs. Webuild our framework upon theories of Markov Decision Process (MDP), which allows learning to trade off competing objectives in a principled way. The main machine learning techniques we use are from imitation learning and reinforcement learning, and we advance current techniques to tackle problems arising in our settings. We evaluate our algorithm on a variety of applications, including dependency parsing, machine translation, and question answering. We show that our approach achieves a better cost-accuracy trade-off than the batch approach and heuristic-based decision- making approaches. We first propose a general framework for cost-sensitive prediction, where dif- ferent parts of the input come at different costs. We formulate a decision-making process that selects pieces of the input sequentially, and the selection is adaptive to each instance. Our approach is evaluated on both standard classification tasks and a structured prediction task (dependency parsing). We show that it achieves similar prediction quality to methods that use all input, while inducing a much smaller cost. Next, we extend the framework to problems where the input is revealed incremen- tally in a fixed order. We study two applications: simultaneous machine translation and quiz bowl (incremental text classification). We discuss challenges in this set- ting and show that adding domain knowledge eases the decision-making problem. A central theme throughout the chapters is an MDP formulation of a challenging problem with sequential input/output and trade-off decisions, accompanied by a learning algorithm that solves the MDP.

The acquisition of adjunct control: grammar and processing

This dissertation uses children’s acquisition of adjunct control as a case study to investigate grammatical and performance accounts of language acquisition. In previous research, children have consistently exhibited non-adultlike behavior for sentences with adjunct control. To explain children’s behavior, several different grammatical accounts have been proposed, but evidence for these accounts has been inconclusive. In this dissertation, I take two approaches to account for children’s errors. First, I spell out the predictions of previous grammatical accounts, and test these predictions after accounting for some methodological concerns that might have influenced children’s behavior in previous studies. While I reproduce the non-adultlike behavior observed in previous studies, the predictions of previous grammatical accounts are not borne out, suggesting that extragrammatical factors are needed to explain children’s behavior. Next, I consider the role of two different types of extragrammatical factors in predicting children’s non-adultlike behavior. With a new task designed to address the task demands in previous studies, children exhibit significantly higher accuracy than with previous tasks. This suggests that children’s behavior has been influenced by task- specific processing factors. In addition to the task, I also test the predictions of a similarity-based interference account, which links children’s errors to the same memory mechanisms involved in sentence processing difficulties observed in adults. These predictions are borne out, supporting a more continuous developmental trajectory as children’s processing mechanisms become more resistant to interference. Finally, I consider how children’s errors might influence their acquisition of adjunct control, given the distribution in the linguistic input. I discuss the results of a corpus analysis, including the possibility that adjunct control could be learned from the input. The kinds of information that could be useful to a learner become much more limited, however, after considering the processing limitations that would interfere with the representations available to the learner.

Flooded with Information from Social Media: Effects of Disaster Information Source and Visuals on Viewers' Cognitive, Affective, and Behavioral Responses

While a variety of crisis types loom as real risks for organizations and communities, and the media landscape continues to evolve, research is needed to help explain and predict how people respond to various kinds of crisis and disaster information. For example, despite the rising prevalence of digital and mobile media centered on still and moving visuals, and stark increases in Americans’ use of visual-based platforms for seeking and sharing disaster information, relatively little is known about how the presence or absence of disaster visuals online might prompt or deter resilience-related feelings, thoughts, and/or behaviors. Yet, with such insights, governmental and other organizational entities as well as communities themselves may best help individuals and communities prepare for, cope with, and recover from adverse events. Thus, this work uses the theoretical lens of the social-mediated crisis communication model (SMCC) coupled with the limited capacity model of motivated mediated message processing (LC4MP) to explore effects of disaster information source and visuals on viewers’ resilience-related responses to an extreme flooding scenario. Results from two experiments are reported. First a preliminary 2 (disaster information source: organization/US National Weather Service vs. news media/USA Today) x 2 (disaster visuals: no visual podcast vs. moving visual video) factorial between-subjects online experiment with a convenience sample of university students probes effects of crisis source and visuals on a variety of cognitive, affective, and behavioral outcomes. A second between-subjects online experiment manipulating still and moving visual pace in online videos (no visual vs. still, slow-pace visual vs. still, medium-pace visual vs. still, fast-pace visual vs. moving, slow-pace visual vs. moving, medium-pace visual vs. moving, fast-pace visual) with a convenience sample recruited from Amazon’s Mechanical Turk (mTurk) similarly probes a variety of potentially resilience-related cognitive, affective, and behavioral outcomes. The role of biological sex as a quasi-experimental variable is also investigated in both studies. Various implications for community resilience and recommendations for risk and disaster communicators are explored. Implications for theory building and future research are also examined. Resulting modifications of the SMCC model (i.e., removing “message strategy” and adding the new category of “message content elements” under organizational considerations) are proposed.