Prediction of Upward Flame Spread over Polymers

In this work, the existing understanding of flame spread dynamics is enhanced through an extensive study of the heat transfer from flames spreading vertically upwards across 5 cm wide, 20 cm tall samples of extruded Poly (Methyl Methacrylate) (PMMA). These experiments have provided highly spatially resolved measurements of flame to surface heat flux and material burning rate at the critical length scale of interest, with a level of accuracy and detail unmatched by previous empirical or computational studies. Using these measurements, a wall flame model was developed that describes a flame’s heat feedback profile (both in the continuous flame region and the thermal plume above) solely as a function of material burning rate. Additional experiments were conducted to measure flame heat flux and sample mass loss rate as flames spread vertically upwards over the surface of seven other commonly used polymers, two of which are glass reinforced composite materials. Using these measurements, our wall flame model has been generalized such that it can predict heat feedback from flames supported by a wide range of materials. For the seven materials tested here – which present a varied range of burning behaviors including dripping, polymer melt flow, sample burnout, and heavy soot formation – model-predicted flame heat flux has been shown to match experimental measurements (taken across the full length of the flame) with an average accuracy of 3.9 kW m-2 (approximately 10 – 15 % of peak measured flame heat flux). This flame model has since been coupled with a powerful solid phase pyrolysis solver, ThermaKin2D, which computes the transient rate of gaseous fuel production of constituents of a pyrolyzing solid in response to an external heat flux, based on fundamental physical and chemical properties. Together, this unified model captures the two fundamental controlling mechanisms of upward flame spread – gas phase flame heat transfer and solid phase material degradation. This has enabled simulations of flame spread dynamics with a reasonable computational cost and accuracy beyond that of current models. This unified model of material degradation provides the framework to quantitatively study material burning behavior in response to a wide range of common fire scenarios.

TESTING THE JOINT ROLES OF CAREER DECISION SELF-EFFICACY AND PERSONALITY TRAITS IN THE PREDICTION OF CAREER INDECISION

Career decision-making self-efficacy and the Big Five traits of neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness were examined as predictors of career indecision in a sample of 181 undergraduates. Participants completed an online survey. I predicted that the Big Five traits and career decision-making self-efficacy would (a) interrelate moderately and (b) each relate significantly and moderately to career indecision. In addition, I predicted that career decision-making self-efficacy would partially mediate the relationships between the Big Five traits and career indecision, while the Big Five traits were predicted to moderate the relationship between career decision-making self-efficacy and career indecision. Finally, I predicted that career decision-making self-efficacy would account for a greater amount of unique variance in career indecision than the Big Five traits. All predicted correlations were significant. Career decision-making self-efficacy fully mediated the relationship of Extraversion to career indecision and partially mediated the relationships of Neuroticism and Conscientiousness to career indecision. Conscientiousness was found to moderate the relationship of career decision-making self-efficacy to career indecision such that the negative relation between self-efficacy and career indecision was stronger in the presence of high conscientiousness. This study builds upon existing research on the prediction of career indecision by examining potential mediating and moderating relationships.

The role of the Indian Ocean sector and sea surface salinity for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system

The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate the potential downstream influence of the Indian Ocean (IO) on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts through the oceanic pathway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), atmospheric teleconnections between the IO and Pacific, and assimilation of IO observations. Also the impact of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indo-Pacific region is assessed to try to address known problems with operational coupled model precipitation forecasts. The ITF normally drains warm fresh water from the Pacific reducing the mixed layer depths (MLD). A shallower MLD amplifies large-scale oceanic Kelvin/Rossby waves thus giving ~10% larger response and more realistic ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability compared to observed when the ITF is open. In order to isolate the impact of the IO sector atmospheric teleconnections to ENSO, experiments are contrasted that selectively couple/decouple the interannual forcing in the IO. The interannual variability of IO SST forcing is responsible for 3 month lagged widespread downwelling in the Pacific, assisted by off-equatorial curl, leading to warmer NINO3 SST anomaly and improved ENSO validation (significant from 3-9 months). Isolating the impact of observations in the IO sector using regional assimilation identifies large-scale warming in the IO that acts to intensify the easterlies of the Walker circulation and increases pervasive upwelling across the Pacific, cooling the eastern Pacific, and improving ENSO validation (r ~ 0.05, RMS~0.08C). Lastly, the positive impact of more accurate fresh water forcing is demonstrated to address inadequate precipitation forecasts in operational coupled models. Aquarius SSS assimilation improves the mixed layer density and enhances mixing, setting off upwelling that eventually cools the eastern Pacific after 6 months, counteracting the pervasive warming of most coupled models and significantly improving ENSO validation from 5-11 months. In summary, the ITF oceanic pathway, the atmospheric teleconnection, the impact of observations in the IO, and improved Indo-Pacific SSS are all responsible for ENSO forecast improvements, and so each aspect of this study contributes to a better overall understanding of ENSO. Therefore, the upstream influence of the IO should be thought of as integral to the functioning of ENSO phenomenon.