Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

Bat-plant pollination interactions in southern Thailand

The overwhelming majority of flowering plant species depend on animals for pollination, and such pollinators are important for the reproductive success of many economically and environmentally important plant species. Yet pollinators in the Old World tropics are relatively understudied, particularly paleotropical nectarivorous bats (Pteropodidae), and much is unknown about their interactions with night-blooming plant species. To better understand these bat-plant pollination interactions, I conducted fieldwork in southern Thailand for a total of 20 months, spread across three years. I examined the foraging times of pteropodid bat species (Chapter 1), and found that strictly nectarivorous species foraged earlier, and for a shorter duration, than primarily frugivorous species. I also studied year-long foraging patterns of pteropodid bats to determine how different species track floral resources across seasons (Chapter 2). Larger species capable of flying long distances switched diets seasonally to forage on the most abundant floral species, while smaller species foraged throughout the year on nearby plant species that were low-rewarding but highly reliable. To determine which pteropodid species are potentially important pollinators, I quantified the frequency and effectiveness of their visits to six common bat-pollinated plant taxa for an entire year (Chapter 3). The three strictly nectarivorous species were responsible for almost all pollination, but pollinator importance of each bat species varied across plant species. I further examined the long-term reliability of these pollinators (Chapter 4), and found that pollinator importance values were consistent across the three study years. Lastly, I explored mechanisms that reduce interspecific pollen transfer among bat-pollinated plants, despite having shared pollinators. Using a flight cage experiment, I demonstrated that these plant species deposit pollen on different areas of the bat’s body (mechanical partitioning), resulting in greater pollen transfer between conspecific flowers than heterospecific flowers (Chapter 5). Additionally, while I observed ecological and phenological overlap among flowering plant species, pollinators exhibited high floral constancy within a night, resulting in strong ethological separation (Chapter 6). Collectively, these findings illustrate the importance of understudied Old World bat pollinators within a mixed agricultural-forest system, and their strong, interdependent interactions with bat-pollinated plant species within a night, across seasons, and across years.

Dynamics of a large submersed plant bed in upper Chesapeake Bay

A large SAV bed in upper Chesapeake Bay has experienced several abrupt shifts over the past half-century, beginning with near-complete loss after a record-breaking flood in 1972, followed by an unexpected, rapid resurgence in the early 2000’s, then partial decline in 2011 following another major flood event. Together, these trends and events provide a unique opportunity to study a recovering SAV ecosystem from several different perspectives. First, I analyzed and synthesized existing time series datasets to make inferences about what factors prompted the recovery. Next, I analyzed existing datasets, together with field samples and a simple hydrodynamic model to investigate mechanisms of SAV bed loss and resilience to storm events. Finally, I conducted field deployments and experiments to explore how the bed affects internal physical and biogeochemical processes and what implications those effects have for the dynamics of the system. I found that modest reductions in nutrient loading, coupled with several consecutive dry years likely facilitated the SAV resurgence. Furthermore, positive feedback processes may have played a role in the sudden nature of the recovery because they could have reinforced the state of the bed before and after the abrupt shift. I also found that scour and poor water clarity associated with sediment deposition during the 2011 flood event were mechanisms of plant loss. However, interactions between the bed, water flow, and waves served as mechanisms of resilience because these processes created favorable growing conditions (i.e., clear water, low flow velocities) in the inner core of the bed. Finally, I found that that interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes led to low nutrient concentrations inside the bed relative to outside the bed, which created conditions that precluded algal growth and reinforced vascular plant dominance. This work demonstrates that positive feedbacks play a central role in SAV resilience to both chronic eutrophication as well as acute storm events. Furthermore, I show that analysis of long-term ecological monitoring data, together with field measurements and experiments, can be an effective approach for understanding the mechanisms underlying ecosystem dynamics.

INFLUENCE OF A NATIVE INSECTARY PLANT, CHAMAECRISTA FASCICULATA (MICHX.) ON ORGANIC FIELD CORN AND ARTHROPOD COMMUNITIES

Increasing plant diversity in conventionally monoculture agrosystems has been promoted as a method to enhance beneficial arthropod density and efficacy, suppress herbivory and provide a range of ecosystem services. I investigated the pest suppressive potential and economic impact of plant diversification in organic field corn. The experiment consisted of two treatments, corn grown in monoculture (C) and bordered by strips of partridge pea (PP). Pest and natural enemy populations, corn damage, yield, and profits were compared among treatments. Natural enemy and herbivore arthropod populations were affected by treatment and distance from plot border. Corn damage due to pests was also affected by treatment and location, but did not significantly affect yield. Yield in monoculture plots was generally greater than in PP but did not result in greater profit. Pest and natural enemy arthropod abundances were elevated in partridge pea treatment borders, but these populations did not consistently diffuse into plot interiors. The potential causes and implications of findings are discussed.

Geography and Genetics of Ecological Speciation in Pea Aphids

During ecological speciation, divergent natural selection drives evolution of ecological specialization and genetic differentiation of populations on alternate environments. Populations diverging onto the same alternate environments may be geographically widespread, so that divergence may occur at an array of locations simultaneously. Spatial variation in the process of divergence may produce a pattern of differences in divergence among locations called the Geographic Mosaic of Divergence. Diverging populations may vary in their degree of genetic differentiation and ecological specialization among locations. My dissertation examines the pattern and evolutionary processes of divergence in pea aphids (Acyrthosiphon pisum) on alfalfa (Medicago sativa) and clover (Trifolium pretense). In Chapter One, I examined differences among North American aphid populations in genetic differentiation at nuclear, sequence-based markers and in ecological specialization, measured as aphid fecundity on each host plant. In the East, aphids showed high host-plant associated ecological specialization and high genetic differentiation. In the West, aphids from clover were genetically indistinguishable from aphids on alfalfa, and aphids from clover were less specialized. Thus, the pattern of divergence differed among locations, suggesting a Geographic Mosaic of Divergence. In Chapter Two, I examined genomic heterogeneity in divergence in aphids on alfalfa and clover across North America using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). The degree of genetic differentiation varied greatly among markers, suggesting that divergent natural selection drives aphid divergence in all geographic locations. Three of the same genetic markers were identified as evolving under divergent selection in the eastern and western regions, and additional divergent markers were identified in the East. In Chapter Three, I investigated population structure of aphids in North America, France, and Sweden using AFLPs. Aphids on the same host plant were genetically similar across many parts of their range, so the evolution of host plant specialization does not appear to have occurred independently in every location. While aphids on alfalfa and clover were genetically differentiated in most locations, aphids from alfalfa and clover were genetically similar in both western North America and Sweden. High gene flow from alfalfa onto clover may constrain divergence in these locations.

A von Bertalanffy Based Model for the Estimation of Oyster (Crassostrea virginica) Growth on Restored Oyster Reefs in Chesapeake Bay

A model to estimate the mean monthly growth of Crassostrea virginica oysters in Chesapeake Bay was developed. This model is based on the classic von Bertalanffy growth function, however the growth constant is changed every monthly timestep in response to short term changes in temperature and salinity. Using a dynamically varying growth constant allows the model to capture seasonal oscillations in growth, and growth responses to changing environmental conditions that previous applications of the von Bertalanffy model do not capture. This model is further expanded to include an estimation of Perkinsus marinus impacts on growth rates as well as estimations of ecosystem services provided by a restored oyster bar over time. The model was validated by comparing growth estimates from the model to oyster shell height observations from a variety of restoration sites in the upper Chesapeake Bay. Without using the P. marinus impact on growth, the model consistently overestimates mean oyster growth. However, when P. marinus effects are included in the model, the model estimates match the observed mean shell height closely for at least the first 3 years of growth. The estimates of ecosystem services suggested by this model imply that even with high levels of mortality on an oyster reef, the ecosystem services provided by that reef can still be maintained by growth for several years. Because larger oyster filter more water than smaller ones, larger oysters contribute more to the filtration and nutrient removal ecosystem services of the reef. Therefore a reef with an abundance of larger oysters will provide better filtration and nutrient removal. This implies that if an oyster restoration project is trying to improve water quality through oyster filtration, it is important to maintain the larger older oysters on the reef.

ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION OF ENERGY USE AND COST AT A MUNICIPAL WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT

The cost of electricity, a major operating cost of municipal wastewater treatment plants, is related to influent flow rate, power price, and power load. With knowledge of inflow and price patterns, plant operators can manage processes to reduce electricity costs. Records of influent flow, power price, and load are evaluated for Blue Plains Advanced Wastewater Treatment Plant. Diurnal and seasonal trends are analyzed. Power usage is broken down among treatment processes. A simulation model of influent pumping, a large power user, is developed. It predicts pump discharge and power usage based on wet-well level. Individual pump characteristics are tested in the plant. The model accurately simulates plant inflow and power use for two pumping stations [R2 = 0.68, 0.93 (inflow), R2 =0.94, 0.91(power)]. Wet-well stage-storage relationship is estimated from data. Time-varying wet-well level is added to the model. A synthetic example demonstrates application in managing pumps to reduce electricity cost.

Interactive Effects of Plant Species and Organic Carbon on Nitrate Removal in Chesapeake Bay Treatment Wetlands

Nitrate from agricultural runoff are a significant cause of algal blooms in estuarine ecosystems such as the Chesapeake Bay. These blooms block sunlight vital to submerged aquatic vegetation, leading to hypoxic areas. Natural and constructed wetlands have been shown to reduce the amount of nitrate flowing into adjacent bodies of water. We tested three wetland plant species native to Maryland, Typha latifolia (cattail), Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), and Schoenoplectus validus (soft-stem bulrush), in wetland microcosms to determine the effect of species combination and organic amendment on nitrate removal. In the first phase of our study, we found that microcosms containing sawdust exhibited significantly greater nitrate removal than microcosms amended with glucose or hay at a low nitrate loading rate. In the second phase of our study, we confirmed that combining these plants removed nitrate, although no one combination was significantly better. Furthermore, the above-ground biomass of microcosms containing switchgrass had a significantly greater percentage of carbon than microcosms without switchgrass, which can be studied for potential biofuel use. Based on our data, future environmental groups can make a more informed decision when choosing biofuel-capable plant species for artificial wetlands native to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.