4 resultados para Overall Likelihood and Posterior

em DRUM (Digital Repository at the University of Maryland)


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Gemstone Team Antibiotic Resistance

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This dissertation describes two studies on macroeconomic trends and cycles. The first chapter studies the impact of Information Technology (IT) on the U.S. labor market. Over the past 30 years, employment and income shares of routine-intensive occupations have declined significantly relative to nonroutine occupations, and the overall U.S. labor income share has declined relative to capital. Furthermore, the decline of routine employment has been largely concentrated during recessions and ensuing recoveries. I build a model of unbalanced growth to assess the role of computerization and IT in driving these labor market trends and cycles. I augment a neoclassical growth model with exogenous IT progress as a form of Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC). I show analytically that RBTC causes the overall labor income share to follow a U-shaped time path, as the monotonic decline of routine labor share is increasingly offset by the monotonic rise of nonroutine labor share and the elasticity of substitution between the overall labor and capital declines under IT progress. Quantitatively, the model explains nearly all the divergence between routine and nonroutine labor in the period 1986-2014, as well as the mild decline of the overall labor share between 1986 and the early 2000s. However, the model with IT progress alone cannot explain the accelerated decline of labor income share after the early 2000s, suggesting that other factors, such as globalization, may have played a larger role in this period. Lastly, when nonconvex labor adjustment costs are present, the model generates a stepwise decline in routine labor hours, qualitatively consistent with the data. The timing of these trend adjustments can be significantly affected by aggregate productivity shocks and concentrated in recessions. The second chapter studies the implications of loss aversion on the business cycle dynamics of aggregate consumption and labor hours. Loss aversion refers to the fact that people are distinctively more sensitive to losses than to gains. Loss averse agents are very risk averse around the reference point and exhibit asymmetric responses to positive and negative income shocks. In an otherwise standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) model, I study loss aversion in both consumption alone and consumption-and-leisure together. My results indicate that how loss aversion affects business cycle dynamics depends critically on the nature of the reference point. If, for example, the reference point is status quo, loss aversion dramatically lowers the effective inter-temporal rate of substitution and induces excessive consumption smoothing. In contrast, if the reference point is fixed at a constant level, loss aversion generates a flat region in the decision rules and asymmetric impulse responses to technology shocks. Under a reasonable parametrization, loss aversion has the potential to generate asymmetric business cycles with deeper and more prolonged recessions.

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Research indicates that school leaders are crucial to improving instruction and raising student achievement (Council of Chief State School Officers, 2008). As such, educational reforms such as the No Child Left Behind Act (2001) and Race to the Top (2009) have sparked an accountability movement where principals are being held accountable for students' academic achievement and educational outcomes. The shift towards greater accountability has placed new attention on the ways principals are trained. Researchers have noted that organized professional development programs have not adequately prepared school principals to meet the priority demands of the 21st century (Hale & Moorman, 2003; Murphy, 1994). Murphy (1994) stated, "Traditional preparation programs - usually pre-service programs based in colleges or universities, that awarded certification and advanced degrees - rarely concentrated on the leadership challenges that principals actually face in real schools" (p. 4). As a result, many school districts are seeking ways to develop leadership development training programs that will prepare principals for their job responsibilities as a school leader. In spite of the additional training principals receive, researchers suggests that there is an obvious gap between the readiness of administrators to be instructional leaders and the demands for accountability that school administrators face (Hale & Moorman, 2003). This quantitative study examined elementary school principals' perceptions of their leadership development training program. Guided by four research questions, the study examined principals' perceptions of their overall training and how well their training prepared them to deal with school and classroom practices that contribute to student achievement; to work with teachers and others to design and implement a system for continuous student achievement; and to provide necessary support to carry out sound school, curriculum, and instructional practices. Data for this study was collected by way of survey responses from a total of 46 elementary school principals. The results from the study revealed that more than half (58.7%) of participants perceived their training as excellent. While principals' perceived that their training adequately prepared them to work collaboratively in teams, set clear visions and goals, and to use data to improve students achievement, many respondents reported a lack of training in being informed and focused on student achievement. Principals also suggested that they were not effectively trained in finding effective ways to obtain support from central office or community members.

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Abstract: New product design challenges, related to customer needs, product usage and environments, face companies when they expand their product offerings to new markets; Some of the main challenges are: the lack of quantifiable information, product experience and field data. Designing reliable products under such challenges requires flexible reliability assessment processes that can capture the variables and parameters affecting the product overall reliability and allow different design scenarios to be assessed. These challenges also suggest a mechanistic (Physics of Failure-PoF) reliability approach would be a suitable framework to be used for reliability assessment. Mechanistic Reliability recognizes the primary factors affecting design reliability. This research views the designed entity as a “system of components required to deliver specific operations”; it addresses the above mentioned challenges by; Firstly: developing a design synthesis that allows a descriptive operations/ system components relationships to be realized; Secondly: developing component’s mathematical damage models that evaluate components Time to Failure (TTF) distributions given: 1) the descriptive design model, 2) customer usage knowledge and 3) design material properties; Lastly: developing a procedure that integrates components’ damage models to assess the mechanical system’s reliability over time. Analytical and numerical simulation models were developed to capture the relationships between operations and components, the mathematical damage models and the assessment of system’s reliability. The process was able to affect the design form during the conceptual design phase by providing stress goals to meet component’s reliability target. The process was able to numerically assess the reliability of a system based on component’s mechanistic TTF distributions, besides affecting the design of the component during the design embodiment phase. The process was used to assess the reliability of an internal combustion engine manifold during design phase; results were compared to reliability field data and found to produce conservative reliability results. The research focused on mechanical systems, affected by independent mechanical failure mechanisms that are influenced by the design process. Assembly and manufacturing stresses and defects’ influences are not a focus of this research.