Community- and population-level effects of chytridiomycosis in a Neotropical amphibian community

As the number of fungal pathogen outbreaks become more frequent worldwide across taxa, so have the number of species extirpations and communities persisting with the pathogen. This phenomenon raises questions, such as: “what leads to host extinction during an outbreak?” and “how are hosts persisting once the pathogen establishes?.” But the data on host populations and communities across life stages before and after pathogen arrival rarely exist to answer these questions. Over the past three to four decades, the amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrim dendrobatidis (Bd) spread in a wave-like manner across Central America, leading to rapid species extirpations and population declines. I collected data on tadpole and adult amphibians in El Copé, Panama before, during, and after the Bd outbreak to answer these questions. I used Bayesian statistical approaches to account for imperfect host and pathogen detection of marked and unmarked individuals. In the tadpole community, within 11 months of Bds arrival, density and occupancy rapidly declined. Species losses were phylogenetically correlated, with glass frogs disappearing first, and tree frogs and poison-dart frogs remaining. I found that tadpole communities resembled one another more strongly after the outbreak than they did before Bd invasion. I found no tadpoles within 22 months of the outbreak and limited signs of recovery within 10 years. In contrast, at the same site, for a population of male glass frogs, Espadarana prosopleon, I found that 10 years post-outbreak, the population was consistently half its historic abundance, and that the lack of recruits to the population explained why the population had not rebounded, rather than high pathogen-induced mortality. And finally, examining the entire amphibian community, I found high pathogen prevalence, low infection intensities, and high survival rates of uninfected and infected hosts. Bd transmission risk, i.e., the probability a susceptible host becomes infected, did not relate to host density, pathogen prevalence, or infection intensity– Bd transmission risk was uniform across the study area. My results are especially relevant to conservation biologists aiming to predict the future impacts of Bd outbreaks, those trying to manage persisting populations, and those interested in reintroducing species back into wild amphibian communities.

EXISTENCE OF UNUSED MANAGED CAPACITY ON DEDICATED LANES AND AN ALTERNATIVE ON HOW TO SELL IT VIA AUCTIONS

This dissertation verifies whether the following two hypotheses are true: (1) High-occupancy/toll lanes (and therefore other dedicated lanes) have capacity that could still be used; (2) such unused capacity (or more precisely, “unused managed capacity”) can be sold successfully through a real-time auction. To show that the second statement is true, this dissertation proposes an auction-based metering (ABM) system, that is, a mechanism that regulates traffic that enters the dedicated lanes. Participation in the auction is voluntary and can be skipped by paying the toll or by not registering to the new system. This dissertation comprises the following four components: a measurement of unused managed capacity on an existing HOT facility, a game-theoretic model of an ABM system, an operational description of the ABM system, and a simulation-based evaluation of the system. Some other and more specific contributions of this dissertation include the following: (1) It provides a definition and a methodology for measuring unused managed capacity and another important variable referred as “potential volume increase”. (2) It proves that the game-theoretic model has a unique Bayesian Nash equilibrium. (3) And it provides a specific road design that can be applied or extended to other facilities. The results provide evidence that the hypotheses are true and suggest that the ABM system would benefit a public operator interested in reducing traffic congestion significantly, would benefit drivers when making low-reliability trips (such as work-to-home trips), and would potentially benefit a private operator interested in raising revenue.