CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH A CONTINUOUS TREATMENT AND OUTCOME: ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATORS FOR PARAMETRIC DOSE-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS WITH APPLICATIONS.

Causal inference with a continuous treatment is a relatively under-explored problem. In this dissertation, we adopt the potential outcomes framework. Potential outcomes are responses that would be seen for a unit under all possible treatments. In an observational study where the treatment is continuous, the potential outcomes are an uncountably infinite set indexed by treatment dose. We parameterize this unobservable set as a linear combination of a finite number of basis functions whose coefficients vary across units. This leads to new techniques for estimating the population average dose-response function (ADRF). Some techniques require a model for the treatment assignment given covariates, some require a model for predicting the potential outcomes from covariates, and some require both. We develop these techniques using a framework of estimating functions, compare them to existing methods for continuous treatments, and simulate their performance in a population where the ADRF is linear and the models for the treatment and/or outcomes may be misspecified. We also extend the comparisons to a data set of lottery winners in Massachusetts. Next, we describe the methods and functions in the R package causaldrf using data from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) and Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) as examples. Additionally, we analyze the National Growth and Health Study (NGHS) data set and deal with the issue of missing data. Lastly, we discuss future research goals and possible extensions.

Characterization of Non-linear Polymer Properties to Predict Process Induced Warpage and Residual Stress of Electronic Packages

Nonlinear thermo-mechanical properties of advanced polymers are crucial to accurate prediction of the process induced warpage and residual stress of electronics packages. The Fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor based method is advanced and implemented to determine temperature and time dependent nonlinear properties. The FBG sensor is embedded in the center of the cylindrical specimen, which deforms together with the specimen. The strains of the specimen at different loading conditions are monitored by the FBG sensor. Two main sources of the warpage are considered: curing induced warpage and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) mismatch induced warpage. The effective chemical shrinkage and the equilibrium modulus are needed for the curing induced warpage prediction. Considering various polymeric materials used in microelectronic packages, unique curing setups and procedures are developed for elastomers (extremely low modulus, medium viscosity, room temperature curing), underfill materials (medium modulus, low viscosity, high temperature curing), and epoxy molding compound (EMC: high modulus, high viscosity, high temperature pressure curing), most notably, (1) zero-constraint mold for elastomers; (2) a two-stage curing procedure for underfill materials and (3) an air-cylinder based novel setup for EMC. For the CTE mismatch induced warpage, the temperature dependent CTE and the comprehensive viscoelastic properties are measured. The cured cylindrical specimen with a FBG sensor embedded in the center is further used for viscoelastic property measurements. A uni-axial compressive loading is applied to the specimen to measure the time dependent Young’s modulus. The test is repeated from room temperature to the reflow temperature to capture the time-temperature dependent Young’s modulus. A separate high pressure system is developed for the bulk modulus measurement. The time temperature dependent bulk modulus is measured at the same temperatures as the Young’s modulus. The master curve of the Young’s modulus and bulk modulus of the EMC is created and a single set of the shift factors is determined from the time temperature superposition. The supplementary experiments are conducted to verify the validity of the assumptions associated with the linear viscoelasticity. The measured time-temperature dependent properties are further verified by a shadow moiré and Twyman/Green test.