RISKS TO FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS FROM CLIMATE POLICIES: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS WITH ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO 2050

Although mitigating GHG emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and access due to land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Prior studies have examined the co-impacts on food availability and global producer prices caused by alternative climate policies. More recent studies have looked at the reduction in total caloric intake driven by both changing income and changing food prices under one specific climate policy. However, due to inelastic calorie demand, consumers’ well-being are likely further reduced by increased food expenditures. Built upon existing literature, my dissertation explores how alternative climate policy designs might adversely affect both caloric intake and staple food budget share to 2050, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and a post-estimated metric of food availability and access (FAA). My dissertation first develop a set of new metrics and methods to explore new perspectives of food availability and access under new conditions. The FAA metric consists of two components, the fraction of GDP per capita spent on five categories of staple food and total caloric intake relative to a reference level. By testing the metric against alternate expectations of the future, it shows consistent results with previous studies that economic growth dominates the improvement of FAA. As we increase our ambition to achieve stringent climate targets, two policy conditions tend to have large impacts on FAA driven by competing land use and increasing food prices. Strict conservation policies leave the competition between bioenergy and agriculture production on existing commercial land, while pricing terrestrial carbon encourages large-scale afforestation. To avoid unintended outcomes to food availability and access for the poor, pricing land emissions in frontier forests has the advantage of selecting more productive land for agricultural activities compared to the full conservation approach, but the land carbon price should not be linked to the price of energy system emissions. These results are highly relevant to effective policy-making to reduce land use change emissions, such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Changes in the community structure of urban and rural forest patches in Baltimore from 1998 to 2015

Urban forests are often highly fragmented with many exotic species. Altered disturbance regimes and environmental pollutants influence urban forest vegetation. One of the best ways to understand the impacts of land-use on forest composition is through long-term research. In 1998, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study established eight forest plots to investigate the impacts of urbanization on natural ecosystems. Four plots were located in urban forest patches and four were located in rural forests. In 2015, I revisited these plots to measure abundances and quantify change in forest composition, diversity, and structure. Sapling, shrub, and seedling abundance were reduced in the rural plots. Alpha diversity and turnover was lower in the rural plots. Beta diversity was reduced in the rural plots. The structure of the urban plots was mostly unchanged, except for a highly reduced sapling layer. Beta diversity in the urban plots was consistent across surveys due to high species turnover.

THE INFLUENCE OF URBAN FORM AT DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL SCALES ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR; EVIDENCE FROM U.S. CITIES

Suburban lifestyle is popular among American families, although it has been criticized for encouraging automobile use through longer commutes, causing heavy traffic congestion, and destroying open spaces (Handy, 2005). It is a serious concern that people living in low-density suburban areas suffer from high automobile dependency and lower rates of daily physical activity, both of which result in social, environmental and health-related costs. In response to such concerns, researchers have investigated the inter-relationships between urban land-use pattern and travel behavior within the last few decades and suggested that land-use planning can play a significant role in changing travel behavior in the long-term. However, debates regarding the magnitude and efficiency of the effects of land-use on travel patterns have been contentious over the years. Changes in built-environment patterns is potentially considered a long-term panacea for automobile dependency and traffic congestion, despite some researchers arguing that the effects of land-use on travel behavior are minor, if any. It is still not clear why the estimated impact is different in urban areas and how effective a proposed land-use change/policy is in changing certain travel behavior. This knowledge gap has made it difficult for decision-makers to evaluate land-use plans and policies. In addition, little is known about the influence of the large-scale built environment. In the present dissertation, advanced spatial-statistical tools have been employed to better understand and analyze these impacts at different scales, along with analyzing transit-oriented development policy at both small and large scales. The objective of this research is to: (1) develop scalable and consistent measures of the overall physical form of metropolitan areas; (2) re-examine the effects of built-environment factors at different hierarchical scales on travel behavior, and, in particular, on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and car ownership; and (3) investigate the effects of transit-oriented development on travel behavior. The findings show that changes in built-environment at both local and regional levels could be very influential in changing travel behavior. Specifically, the promotion of compact, mixed-use built environment with well-connected street networks reduces VMT and car ownership, resulting in less traffic congestion, air pollution, and energy consumption.