Toxicity and Contamination in Bear Creek Sediment: Spatial Analysis and Implications for Risk Assessment

The sediments of Bear Creek near Baltimore, Maryland demonstrate substantial toxicity to benthic organisms, and contain a complex mixture of organic and inorganic contaminants. The present study maps the spatial extent and depth profile of toxicity and contamination in Bear Creek, and explores correlations between heavy metals, organic contaminants, and toxic responses. Two novel analytical techniques – handheld XRF and an antibody-based PAH biosensor – were applied to samples from the site to quantify total metals and total PAHs in sediments. By comprehensively assessing toxicity in Bear Creek, the present study provides data to inform future risk assessments and management decisions relating for the site, while demonstrating the benefits of applying joint biological assays and chemical assessment methods to sediments with complex contaminant mixtures.

Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.

Development of gene expression-based biomarkers of exposure to metals and pesticides in the freshwater amphipod Hyalella azteca

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a framework for monitoring risks of exposure and adverse effects of environmental stressors to populations or communities of interest. One tool of ERA is the biomarker, which is a characteristic of an organism that reliably indicates exposure to or effects of a stressor like chemical pollution. Traditional biomarkers which rely on characteristics at the tissue level and higher often detect only acute exposures to stressors. Sensitive molecular biomarkers may detect lower stressor levels than traditional biomarkers, which helps inform risk mitigation and restoration efforts before populations and communities are irreversibly affected. In this study I developed gene expression-based molecular biomarkers of exposure to metals and insecticides in the model toxicological freshwater amphipod Hyalella azteca. My goals were to not only create sensitive molecular biomarkers for these chemicals, but also to show the utility and versatility of H. azteca in molecular studies for toxicology and risk assessment. I sequenced and assembled the H. azteca transcriptome to identify reference and stress-response gene transcripts suitable for expression monitoring. I exposed H. azteca to sub-lethal concentrations of metals (cadmium and copper) and insecticides (DDT, permethrin, and imidacloprid). Reference genes used to create normalization factors were determined for each exposure using the programs BestKeeper, GeNorm, and NormFinder. Both metals increased expression of a nuclear transcription factor (Cnc), an ABC transporter (Mrp4), and a heat shock protein (Hsp90), giving evidence of general metal exposure signature. Cadmium uniquely increased expression of a DNA repair protein (Rad51) and increased Mrp4 expression more than copper (7-fold increase compared to 2-fold increase). Together these may be unique biomarkers distinguishing cadmium and copper exposures. DDT increased expression of Hsp90, Mrp4, and the immune response gene Lgbp. Permethrin increased expression of a cytochrome P450 (Cyp2j2) and decreased expression of the immune response gene Lectin-1. Imidacloprid did not affect gene expression. Unique biomarkers were seen for DDT and permethrin, but the genes studied were not sensitive enough to detect imidacloprid at the levels used here. I demonstrated that gene expression in H. azteca detects specific chemical exposures at sub-lethal concentrations, making expression monitoring using this amphipod a useful and sensitive biomarker for risk assessment of chemical exposure.

EXPOSURE TO EXTREME HEAT EVENTS AND CHRONIC RESPIRATORY DISEASES AMONG A NATIONALLY REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE OF THE UNITED STATES POPULATION

Previous studies have shown that extreme weather events are on the rise in response to our changing climate. Such events are projected to become more frequent, more intense, and longer lasting. A consistent exposure metric for measuring these extreme events as well as information regarding how these events lead to ill health are needed to inform meaningful adaptation strategies that are specific to the needs of local communities. Using federal meteorological data corresponding to 17 years (1997-2013) of the National Health Interview Survey, this research: 1) developed a location-specific exposure metric that captures individuals’ “exposure” at a spatial scale that is consistent with publicly available county-level health outcome data; 2) characterized the United States’ population in counties that have experienced higher numbers of extreme heat events and thus identified population groups likely to experience future events; and 3) developed an empirical model describing the association between exposure to extreme heat events and hay fever. This research confirmed that the natural modes of forcing (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation), seasonality, urban-rural classification, and division of country have an impact on the number extreme heat events recorded. Also, many of the areas affected by extreme heat events are shown to have a variety of vulnerable populations including women of childbearing age, people who are poor, and older adults. Lastly, this research showed that adults in the highest quartile of exposure to extreme heat events had a 7% increased odds of hay fever compared to those in the lowest quartile, suggesting that exposure to extreme heat events increases risk of hay fever among US adults.

MULTI-UNIT ACCIDENT CONTRIBUTIONS TO U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION QUANTITATIVE HEALTH OBJECTIVES: A SAFETY GOAL POLICY ANALYSIS USING MODELS FROM STATE-OF-THE-ART REACTOR CONSEQUENCE ANALYSES

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission implemented a safety goal policy in response to the 1979 Three Mile Island accident. This policy addresses the question “How safe is safe enough?” by specifying quantitative health objectives (QHOs) for comparison with results from nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) to determine whether proposed regulatory actions are justified based on potential safety benefit. Lessons learned from recent operating experience—including the 2011 Fukushima accident—indicate that accidents involving multiple units at a shared site can occur with non-negligible frequency. Yet risk contributions from such scenarios are excluded by policy from safety goal evaluations—even for the nearly 60% of U.S. NPP sites that include multiple units. This research develops and applies methods for estimating risk metrics for comparison with safety goal QHOs using models from state-of-the-art consequence analyses to evaluate the effect of including multi-unit accident risk contributions in safety goal evaluations.