Agriculture, Environmental Incentive Payments, and Water Quality in the Chesapeake Bay

Nonpoint sources (NPS) pollution from agriculture is the leading source of water quality impairment in U.S. rivers and streams, and a major contributor to lakes, wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters (U.S. EPA 2016). Using data from a survey of farmers in Maryland, this dissertation examines the effects of a cost sharing policy designed to encourage adoption of conservation practices that reduce NPS pollution in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This watershed is the site of the largest Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) implemented to date, making it an important setting in the U.S. for water quality policy. I study two main questions related to the reduction of NPS pollution from agriculture. First, I examine the issue of additionality of cost sharing payments by estimating the direct effect of cover crop cost sharing on the acres of cover crops, and the indirect effect of cover crop cost sharing on the acres of two other practices: conservation tillage and contour/strip cropping. A two-stage simultaneous equation approach is used to correct for voluntary self-selection into cost sharing programs and account for substitution effects among conservation practices. Quasi-random Halton sequences are employed to solve the system of equations for conservation practice acreage and to minimize the computational burden involved. By considering patterns of agronomic complementarity or substitution among conservation practices (Blum et al., 1997; USDA SARE, 2012), this analysis estimates water quality impacts of the crowding-in or crowding-out of private investment in conservation due to public incentive payments. Second, I connect the econometric behavioral results with model parameters from the EPA’s Chesapeake Bay Program to conduct a policy simulation on water quality effects. I expand the econometric model to also consider the potential loss of vegetative cover due to cropland incentive payments, or slippage (Lichtenberg and Smith-Ramirez, 2011). Econometric results are linked with the Chesapeake Bay Program watershed model to estimate the change in abatement levels and costs for nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment under various behavioral scenarios. Finally, I use inverse sampling weights to derive statewide abatement quantities and costs for each of these pollutants, comparing these with TMDL targets for agriculture in Maryland.

PHYTOPLANKTON AND NUTRIENT DYNAMICS WITH A FOCUS ON NITROGEN FORM IN THE ANACOSTIA RIVER, IN WASHINGTON, D.C. AND WEST LAKE, IN HANGZHOU, CHINA

Nutrient loading has been linked with severe water quality impairment, ranging from hypoxia to increased frequency of harmful algal blooms (HABs), loss of fisheries, and changes in biodiversity. Waters around the globe are experiencing deleterious effects of eutrophication; however, the relative amount of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) reaching these waters is not changing proportionately, with high N loads increasingly enriched in chemically-reduced N forms. Research involving two urban freshwater and nutrient enriched systems, the Anacostia River, USA, a tributary of the Potomac River feeding into the Chesapeake Bay, and West Lake, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, was conducted to assess the response of phytoplankton communities to changing N-form and N/P-ratios. Field observations involving the characterization of ambient phytoplankton communities and N-forms, as well as experimental (nutrient enrichment) manipulations were used to understand shifts in phytoplankton community composition with increasing NH4+ loads. In both locations, a >2-fold increase in ambient NH4+:NO3- ratios was followed by a shift in the phytoplankton community, with diatoms giving way to chlorophytes and cyanobacteria. Enrichment experiments mirrored this, in that samples enriched with NH4+ lead to increased abundance of chlorophytes and cyanobacteria. This work shows that in both of these systems experiencing nutrient enrichment that NH4+ supports communities dominated by more chlorophytes and cyanobacteria than other phytoplankton groups.