Optimal Budget-Constrained Sample Allocation for Selection Decisions with Multiple Uncertain Attributes

A decision-maker, when faced with a limited and fixed budget to collect data in support of a multiple attribute selection decision, must decide how many samples to observe from each alternative and attribute. This allocation decision is of particular importance when the information gained leads to uncertain estimates of the attribute values as with sample data collected from observations such as measurements, experimental evaluations, or simulation runs. For example, when the U.S. Department of Homeland Security must decide upon a radiation detection system to acquire, a number of performance attributes are of interest and must be measured in order to characterize each of the considered systems. We identified and evaluated several approaches to incorporate the uncertainty in the attribute value estimates into a normative model for a multiple attribute selection decision. Assuming an additive multiple attribute value model, we demonstrated the idea of propagating the attribute value uncertainty and describing the decision values for each alternative as probability distributions. These distributions were used to select an alternative. With the goal of maximizing the probability of correct selection we developed and evaluated, under several different sets of assumptions, procedures to allocate the fixed experimental budget across the multiple attributes and alternatives. Through a series of simulation studies, we compared the performance of these allocation procedures to the simple, but common, allocation procedure that distributed the sample budget equally across the alternatives and attributes. We found the allocation procedures that were developed based on the inclusion of decision-maker knowledge, such as knowledge of the decision model, outperformed those that neglected such information. Beginning with general knowledge of the attribute values provided by Bayesian prior distributions, and updating this knowledge with each observed sample, the sequential allocation procedure performed particularly well. These observations demonstrate that managing projects focused on a selection decision so that the decision modeling and the experimental planning are done jointly, rather than in isolation, can improve the overall selection results.

EXAMINING SECONDARY MATHEMATICS TEACHER CANDIDATES’ LEARNING AND ENACTMENT OF MATHEMATICS TEACHING PRACTICES: A MULTIPLE CASE STUDY

This qualitative case study explored three teacher candidates’ learning and enactment of discourse-focused mathematics teaching practices. Using audio and video recordings of their teaching practice this study aimed to identify the shifts in the way in which the teacher candidates enacted the following discourse practices: elicited and used evidence of student thinking, posed purposeful questions, and facilitated meaningful mathematical discourse. The teacher candidates’ written reflections from their practice-based coursework as well as interviews were examined to see how two mathematics methods courses influenced their learning and enactment of the three discourse focused mathematics teaching practices. These data sources were also used to identify tensions the teacher candidates encountered. All three candidates in the study were able to successfully enact and reflect on these discourse-focused mathematics teaching practices at various time points in their preparation programs. Consistency of use and areas of improvement differed, however, depending on various tensions experienced by each candidate. Access to quality curriculum materials as well as time to formulate and enact thoughtful lesson plans that supported classroom discourse were tensions for these teacher candidates. This study shows that teacher candidates are capable of enacting discourse-focused teaching practices early in their field placements and with the support of practice-based coursework they can analyze and reflect on their practice for improvement. This study also reveals the importance of assisting teacher candidates in accessing rich mathematical tasks and collaborating during lesson planning. More research needs to be explored to identify how specific aspects of the learning cycle impact individual teachers and how this can be used to improve practice-based teacher education courses.