Data-Driven Wildfire Propagation Modeling with FARSITE-EnKF

The goal of this study is to provide a framework for future researchers to understand and use the FARSITE wildfire-forecasting model with data assimilation. Current wildfire models lack the ability to provide accurate prediction of fire front position faster than real-time. When FARSITE is coupled with a recursive ensemble filter, the data assimilation forecast method improves. The scope includes an explanation of the standalone FARSITE application, technical details on FARSITE integration with a parallel program coupler called OpenPALM, and a model demonstration of the FARSITE-Ensemble Kalman Filter software using the FireFlux I experiment by Craig Clements. The results show that the fire front forecast is improved with the proposed data-driven methodology than with the standalone FARSITE model.

Top-K Query Processing in Edge-Labeled Graph Data

Edge-labeled graphs have proliferated rapidly over the last decade due to the increased popularity of social networks and the Semantic Web. In social networks, relationships between people are represented by edges and each edge is labeled with a semantic annotation. Hence, a huge single graph can express many different relationships between entities. The Semantic Web represents each single fragment of knowledge as a triple (subject, predicate, object), which is conceptually identical to an edge from subject to object labeled with predicates. A set of triples constitutes an edge-labeled graph on which knowledge inference is performed. Subgraph matching has been extensively used as a query language for patterns in the context of edge-labeled graphs. For example, in social networks, users can specify a subgraph matching query to find all people that have certain neighborhood relationships. Heavily used fragments of the SPARQL query language for the Semantic Web and graph queries of other graph DBMS can also be viewed as subgraph matching over large graphs. Though subgraph matching has been extensively studied as a query paradigm in the Semantic Web and in social networks, a user can get a large number of answers in response to a query. These answers can be shown to the user in accordance with an importance ranking. In this thesis proposal, we present four different scoring models along with scalable algorithms to find the top-k answers via a suite of intelligent pruning techniques. The suggested models consist of a practically important subset of the SPARQL query language augmented with some additional useful features. The first model called Substitution Importance Query (SIQ) identifies the top-k answers whose scores are calculated from matched vertices' properties in each answer in accordance with a user-specified notion of importance. The second model called Vertex Importance Query (VIQ) identifies important vertices in accordance with a user-defined scoring method that builds on top of various subgraphs articulated by the user. Approximate Importance Query (AIQ), our third model, allows partial and inexact matchings and returns top-k of them with a user-specified approximation terms and scoring functions. In the fourth model called Probabilistic Importance Query (PIQ), a query consists of several sub-blocks: one mandatory block that must be mapped and other blocks that can be opportunistically mapped. The probability is calculated from various aspects of answers such as the number of mapped blocks, vertices' properties in each block and so on and the most top-k probable answers are returned. An important distinguishing feature of our work is that we allow the user a huge amount of freedom in specifying: (i) what pattern and approximation he considers important, (ii) how to score answers - irrespective of whether they are vertices or substitution, and (iii) how to combine and aggregate scores generated by multiple patterns and/or multiple substitutions. Because so much power is given to the user, indexing is more challenging than in situations where additional restrictions are imposed on the queries the user can ask. The proposed algorithms for the first model can also be used for answering SPARQL queries with ORDER BY and LIMIT, and the method for the second model also works for SPARQL queries with GROUP BY, ORDER BY and LIMIT. We test our algorithms on multiple real-world graph databases, showing that our algorithms are far more efficient than popular triple stores.

The role of the Indian Ocean sector and sea surface salinity for prediction of the coupled Indo-Pacific system

The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate the potential downstream influence of the Indian Ocean (IO) on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts through the oceanic pathway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), atmospheric teleconnections between the IO and Pacific, and assimilation of IO observations. Also the impact of sea surface salinity (SSS) in the Indo-Pacific region is assessed to try to address known problems with operational coupled model precipitation forecasts. The ITF normally drains warm fresh water from the Pacific reducing the mixed layer depths (MLD). A shallower MLD amplifies large-scale oceanic Kelvin/Rossby waves thus giving ~10% larger response and more realistic ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability compared to observed when the ITF is open. In order to isolate the impact of the IO sector atmospheric teleconnections to ENSO, experiments are contrasted that selectively couple/decouple the interannual forcing in the IO. The interannual variability of IO SST forcing is responsible for 3 month lagged widespread downwelling in the Pacific, assisted by off-equatorial curl, leading to warmer NINO3 SST anomaly and improved ENSO validation (significant from 3-9 months). Isolating the impact of observations in the IO sector using regional assimilation identifies large-scale warming in the IO that acts to intensify the easterlies of the Walker circulation and increases pervasive upwelling across the Pacific, cooling the eastern Pacific, and improving ENSO validation (r ~ 0.05, RMS~0.08C). Lastly, the positive impact of more accurate fresh water forcing is demonstrated to address inadequate precipitation forecasts in operational coupled models. Aquarius SSS assimilation improves the mixed layer density and enhances mixing, setting off upwelling that eventually cools the eastern Pacific after 6 months, counteracting the pervasive warming of most coupled models and significantly improving ENSO validation from 5-11 months. In summary, the ITF oceanic pathway, the atmospheric teleconnection, the impact of observations in the IO, and improved Indo-Pacific SSS are all responsible for ENSO forecast improvements, and so each aspect of this study contributes to a better overall understanding of ENSO. Therefore, the upstream influence of the IO should be thought of as integral to the functioning of ENSO phenomenon.