UNDERSTANDING CUSTOMER CHOICES IN SERVICE OUTSOURCING AND REVENUE MANAGEMENT

This dissertation investigates customer behavior modeling in service outsourcing and revenue management in the service sector (i.e., airline and hotel industries). In particular, it focuses on a common theme of improving firms’ strategic decisions through the understanding of customer preferences. Decisions concerning degrees of outsourcing, such as firms’ capacity choices, are important to performance outcomes. These choices are especially important in high-customer-contact services (e.g., airline industry) because of the characteristics of services: simultaneity of consumption and production, and intangibility and perishability of the offering. Essay 1 estimates how outsourcing affects customer choices and market share in the airline industry, and consequently the revenue implications from outsourcing. However, outsourcing decisions are typically endogenous. A firm may choose whether to outsource or not based on what a firm expects to be the best outcome. Essay 2 contributes to the literature by proposing a structural model which could capture a firm’s profit-maximizing decision-making behavior in a market. This makes possible the prediction of consequences (i.e., performance outcomes) of future strategic moves. Another emerging area in service operations management is revenue management. Choice-based revenue systems incorporate discrete choice models into traditional revenue management algorithms. To successfully implement a choice-based revenue system, it is necessary to estimate customer preferences as a valid input to optimization algorithms. The third essay investigates how to estimate customer preferences when part of the market is consistently unobserved. This issue is especially prominent in choice-based revenue management systems. Normally a firm only has its own observed purchases, while those customers who purchase from competitors or do not make purchases are unobserved. Most current estimation procedures depend on unrealistic assumptions about customer arriving. This study proposes a new estimation methodology, which does not require any prior knowledge about the customer arrival process and allows for arbitrary demand distributions. Compared with previous methods, this model performs superior when the true demand is highly variable.

Multi-level, Multi-stage and Stochastic Optimization Models for Energy Conservation in Buildings for Federal, State and Local Agencies

Energy Conservation Measure (ECM) project selection is made difficult given real-world constraints, limited resources to implement savings retrofits, various suppliers in the market and project financing alternatives. Many of these energy efficient retrofit projects should be viewed as a series of investments with annual returns for these traditionally risk-averse agencies. Given a list of ECMs available, federal, state and local agencies must determine how to implement projects at lowest costs. The most common methods of implementation planning are suboptimal relative to cost. Federal, state and local agencies can obtain greater returns on their energy conservation investment over traditional methods, regardless of the implementing organization. This dissertation outlines several approaches to improve the traditional energy conservations models. Any public buildings in regions with similar energy conservation goals in the United States or internationally can also benefit greatly from this research. Additionally, many private owners of buildings are under mandates to conserve energy e.g., Local Law 85 of the New York City Energy Conservation Code requires any building, public or private, to meet the most current energy code for any alteration or renovation. Thus, both public and private stakeholders can benefit from this research. The research in this dissertation advances and presents models that decision-makers can use to optimize the selection of ECM projects with respect to the total cost of implementation. A practical application of a two-level mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) improves the current best practice for agencies concerned with making the most cost-effective selection leveraging energy services companies or utilities. The two-level model maximizes savings to the agency and profit to the energy services companies (Chapter 2). An additional model presented leverages a single congressional appropriation to implement ECM projects (Chapter 3). Returns from implemented ECM projects are used to fund additional ECM projects. In these cases, fluctuations in energy costs and uncertainty in the estimated savings severely influence ECM project selection and the amount of the appropriation requested. A risk aversion method proposed imposes a minimum on the number of “of projects completed in each stage. A comparative method using Conditional Value at Risk is analyzed. Time consistency was addressed in this chapter. This work demonstrates how a risk-based, stochastic, multi-stage model with binary decision variables at each stage provides a much more accurate estimate for planning than the agency’s traditional approach and deterministic models. Finally, in Chapter 4, a rolling-horizon model allows for subadditivity and superadditivity of the energy savings to simulate interactive effects between ECM projects. The approach makes use of inequalities (McCormick, 1976) to re-express constraints that involve the product of binary variables with an exact linearization (related to the convex hull of those constraints). This model additionally shows the benefits of learning between stages while remaining consistent with the single congressional appropriations framework.

POSITIVE FILTERED P_N METHOD FOR LINEAR TRANSPORT EQUATIONS AND THE ASSOCIATED OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHM

We propose a positive, accurate moment closure for linear kinetic transport equations based on a filtered spherical harmonic (FP_N) expansion in the angular variable. The FP_N moment equations are accurate approximations to linear kinetic equations, but they are known to suffer from the occurrence of unphysical, negative particle concentrations. The new positive filtered P_N (FP_N+) closure is developed to address this issue. The FP_N+ closure approximates the kinetic distribution by a spherical harmonic expansion that is non-negative on a finite, predetermined set of quadrature points. With an appropriate numerical PDE solver, the FP_N+ closure generates particle concentrations that are guaranteed to be non-negative. Under an additional, mild regularity assumption, we prove that as the moment order tends to infinity, the FP_N+ approximation converges, in the L2 sense, at the same rate as the FP_N approximation; numerical tests suggest that this assumption may not be necessary. By numerical experiments on the challenging line source benchmark problem, we confirm that the FP_N+ method indeed produces accurate and non-negative solutions. To apply the FP_N+ closure on problems at large temporal-spatial scales, we develop a positive asymptotic preserving (AP) numerical PDE solver. We prove that the propose AP scheme maintains stability and accuracy with standard mesh sizes at large temporal-spatial scales, while, for generic numerical schemes, excessive refinements on temporal-spatial meshes are required. We also show that the proposed scheme preserves positivity of the particle concentration, under some time step restriction. Numerical results confirm that the proposed AP scheme is capable for solving linear transport equations at large temporal-spatial scales, for which a generic scheme could fail. Constrained optimization problems are involved in the formulation of the FP_N+ closure to enforce non-negativity of the FP_N+ approximation on the set of quadrature points. These optimization problems can be written as strictly convex quadratic programs (CQPs) with a large number of inequality constraints. To efficiently solve the CQPs, we propose a constraint-reduced variant of a Mehrotra-predictor-corrector algorithm, with a novel constraint selection rule. We prove that, under appropriate assumptions, the proposed optimization algorithm converges globally to the solution at a locally q-quadratic rate. We test the algorithm on randomly generated problems, and the numerical results indicate that the combination of the proposed algorithm and the constraint selection rule outperforms other compared constraint-reduced algorithms, especially for problems with many more inequality constraints than variables.