3 resultados para Inferring Phylogenies
em DRUM (Digital Repository at the University of Maryland)
Resumo:
In a microscopic setting, humans behave in rich and unexpected ways. In a macroscopic setting, however, distinctive patterns of group behavior emerge, leading statistical physicists to search for an underlying mechanism. The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the macroscopic patterns of competing ideas in order to discern the mechanics of how group opinions form at the microscopic level. First, we explore the competition of answers in online Q&A (question and answer) boards. We find that a simple individual-level model can capture important features of user behavior, especially as the number of answers to a question grows. Our model further suggests that the wisdom of crowds may be constrained by information overload, in which users are unable to thoroughly evaluate each answer and therefore tend to use heuristics to pick what they believe is the best answer. Next, we explore models of opinion spread among voters to explain observed universal statistical patterns such as rescaled vote distributions and logarithmic vote correlations. We introduce a simple model that can explain both properties, as well as why it takes so long for large groups to reach consensus. An important feature of the model that facilitates agreement with data is that individuals become more stubborn (unwilling to change their opinion) over time. Finally, we explore potential underlying mechanisms for opinion formation in juries, by comparing data to various types of models. We find that different null hypotheses in which jurors do not interact when reaching a decision are in strong disagreement with data compared to a simple interaction model. These findings provide conceptual and mechanistic support for previous work that has found mutual influence can play a large role in group decisions. In addition, by matching our models to data, we are able to infer the time scales over which individuals change their opinions for different jury contexts. We find that these values increase as a function of the trial time, suggesting that jurors and judicial panels exhibit a kind of stubbornness similar to what we include in our model of voting behavior.
Resumo:
A primary goal of context-aware systems is delivering the right information at the right place and right time to users in order to enable them to make effective decisions and improve their quality of life. There are three key requirements for achieving this goal: determining what information is relevant, personalizing it based on the users’ context (location, preferences, behavioral history etc.), and delivering it to them in a timely manner without an explicit request from them. These requirements create a paradigm that we term as “Proactive Context-aware Computing”. Most of the existing context-aware systems fulfill only a subset of these requirements. Many of these systems focus only on personalization of the requested information based on users’ current context. Moreover, they are often designed for specific domains. In addition, most of the existing systems are reactive - the users request for some information and the system delivers it to them. These systems are not proactive i.e. they cannot anticipate users’ intent and behavior and act proactively without an explicit request from them. In order to overcome these limitations, we need to conduct a deeper analysis and enhance our understanding of context-aware systems that are generic, universal, proactive and applicable to a wide variety of domains. To support this dissertation, we explore several directions. Clearly the most significant sources of information about users today are smartphones. A large amount of users’ context can be acquired through them and they can be used as an effective means to deliver information to users. In addition, social media such as Facebook, Flickr and Foursquare provide a rich and powerful platform to mine users’ interests, preferences and behavioral history. We employ the ubiquity of smartphones and the wealth of information available from social media to address the challenge of building proactive context-aware systems. We have implemented and evaluated a few approaches, including some as part of the Rover framework, to achieve the paradigm of Proactive Context-aware Computing. Rover is a context-aware research platform which has been evolving for the last 6 years. Since location is one of the most important context for users, we have developed ‘Locus’, an indoor localization, tracking and navigation system for multi-story buildings. Other important dimensions of users’ context include the activities that they are engaged in. To this end, we have developed ‘SenseMe’, a system that leverages the smartphone and its multiple sensors in order to perform multidimensional context and activity recognition for users. As part of the ‘SenseMe’ project, we also conducted an exploratory study of privacy, trust, risks and other concerns of users with smart phone based personal sensing systems and applications. To determine what information would be relevant to users’ situations, we have developed ‘TellMe’ - a system that employs a new, flexible and scalable approach based on Natural Language Processing techniques to perform bootstrapped discovery and ranking of relevant information in context-aware systems. In order to personalize the relevant information, we have also developed an algorithm and system for mining a broad range of users’ preferences from their social network profiles and activities. For recommending new information to the users based on their past behavior and context history (such as visited locations, activities and time), we have developed a recommender system and approach for performing multi-dimensional collaborative recommendations using tensor factorization. For timely delivery of personalized and relevant information, it is essential to anticipate and predict users’ behavior. To this end, we have developed a unified infrastructure, within the Rover framework, and implemented several novel approaches and algorithms that employ various contextual features and state of the art machine learning techniques for building diverse behavioral models of users. Examples of generated models include classifying users’ semantic places and mobility states, predicting their availability for accepting calls on smartphones and inferring their device charging behavior. Finally, to enable proactivity in context-aware systems, we have also developed a planning framework based on HTN planning. Together, these works provide a major push in the direction of proactive context-aware computing.
Resumo:
The central motif of this work is prediction and optimization in presence of multiple interacting intelligent agents. We use the phrase `intelligent agents' to imply in some sense, a `bounded rationality', the exact meaning of which varies depending on the setting. Our agents may not be `rational' in the classical game theoretic sense, in that they don't always optimize a global objective. Rather, they rely on heuristics, as is natural for human agents or even software agents operating in the real-world. Within this broad framework we study the problem of influence maximization in social networks where behavior of agents is myopic, but complication stems from the structure of interaction networks. In this setting, we generalize two well-known models and give new algorithms and hardness results for our models. Then we move on to models where the agents reason strategically but are faced with considerable uncertainty. For such games, we give a new solution concept and analyze a real-world game using out techniques. Finally, the richest model we consider is that of Network Cournot Competition which deals with strategic resource allocation in hypergraphs, where agents reason strategically and their interaction is specified indirectly via player's utility functions. For this model, we give the first equilibrium computability results. In all of the above problems, we assume that payoffs for the agents are known. However, for real-world games, getting the payoffs can be quite challenging. To this end, we also study the inverse problem of inferring payoffs, given game history. We propose and evaluate a data analytic framework and we show that it is fast and performant.