2 resultados para Global sensitivity analysis

em DRUM (Digital Repository at the University of Maryland)


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Cold in-place recycling (CIR) and cold central plant recycling (CCPR) of asphalt concrete (AC) and/or full-depth reclamation (FDR) of AC and aggregate base are faster and less costly rehabilitation alternatives to conventional reconstruction for structurally distressed pavements. This study examines 26 different rehabilitation projects across the USA and Canada. Field cores from these projects were tested for dynamic modulus and repeated load permanent deformation. These structural characteristics are compared to reference values for hot mix asphalt (HMA). A rutting sensitivity analysis was performed on two rehabilitation scenarios with recycled and conventional HMA structural overlays in different climatic conditions using the Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design (MEPDG). The cold-recycled scenarios exhibited performance similar to that of HMA overlays for most cases. The exceptions were the cases with thin HMA wearing courses and/or very poor cold-recycled material quality. The overall conclusion is that properly designed CIR/FDR/CCPR cold-recycled materials are a viable alternative to virgin HMA materials.

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The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.