Balancing Belligerents or Feeding the Beast: Transforming Conflict Traps

Since the end of the Cold War, recurring civil conflicts have been the dominant form of violent armed conflict in the world, accounting for 70% of conflicts active between 2000-2013. Duration and intensity of episodes within recurring conflicts in Africa exhibit four behaviors characteristic of archetypal dynamic system structures. The overarching questions asked in this study are whether these patterns are robustly correlated with fundamental concepts of resiliency in dynamic systems that scale from micro-to macro levels; are they consistent with theoretical risk factors and causal mechanisms; and what are the policy implications. Econometric analysis and dynamic systems modeling of 36 conflicts in Africa between 1989 -2014 are combined with process tracing in a case study of Somalia to evaluate correlations between state characteristics, peace operations and foreign aid on the likelihood of observed conflict patterns, test hypothesized causal mechanisms across scales, and develop policy recommendations for increasing human security while decreasing resiliency of belligerents. Findings are that observed conflict patterns scale from micro to macro levels; are strongly correlated with state characteristics that proxy a mix of cooperative (e.g., gender equality) and coercive (e.g., security forces) conflict-balancing mechanisms; and are weakly correlated with UN and regional peace operations and humanitarian aid. Interactions between peace operations and aid interventions that effect conflict persistence at micro levels are not seen in macro level analysis, due to interdependent, micro-level feedback mechanisms, sequencing, and lagged effects. This study finds that the dynamic system structures associated with observed conflict patterns contain tipping points between balancing mechanisms at the interface of micro-macro level interactions that are determined as much by factors related to how intervention policies are designed and implemented, as what they are. Policy implications are that reducing risk of conflict persistence requires that peace operations and aid interventions (1) simultaneously increase transparency, promote inclusivity (with emphasis on gender equality), and empower local civilian involvement in accountability measures at the local levels; (2) build bridges to horizontally and vertically integrate across levels; and (3) pave pathways towards conflict transformation mechanisms and justice that scale from the individual, to community, regional, and national levels.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION STUDY OF VIBRATION MITIGATION EFFECTIVENESS OF TUNED MASS DAMPERS FOR TRAFFIC SIGNAL MAST ARM STRUCTURES

Fatigue damage in the connections of single mast arm signal support structures is one of the primary safety concerns because collapse could result from fatigue induced cracking. This type of cantilever signal support structures typically has very light damping and excessively large wind-induced vibration have been observed. Major changes related to fatigue design were made in the 2001 AASHTO LRFD Specification for Structural Supports for Highway Signs, Luminaries, and Traffic Signals and supplemental damping devices have been shown to be promising in reducing the vibration response and thus fatigue load demand on mast arm signal support structures. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the effectiveness and optimal use of one type of damping devices termed tuned mass damper (TMD) in vibration response mitigation. Three prototype single mast arm signal support structures with 50-ft, 60-ft, and 70-ft respectively are selected for this numerical simulation study. In order to validate the finite element models for subsequent simulation study, analytical modeling of static deflection response of mast arm of the signal support structures was performed and found to be close to the numerical simulation results from beam element based finite element model. A 3-DOF dynamic model was then built using analytically derived stiffness matrix for modal analysis and time history analysis. The free vibration response and forced (harmonic) vibration response of the mast arm structures from the finite element model are observed to be in good agreement with the finite element analysis results. Furthermore, experimental test result from recent free vibration test of a full-scale 50-ft mast arm specimen in the lab is used to verify the prototype structure’s fundamental frequency and viscous damping ratio. After validating the finite element models, a series of parametric study were conducted to examine the trend and determine optimal use of tuned mass damper on the prototype single mast arm signal support structures by varying the following parameters: mass, frequency, viscous damping ratio, and location of TMD. The numerical simulation study results reveal that two parameters that influence most the vibration mitigation effectiveness of TMD on the single mast arm signal pole structures are the TMD frequency and its viscous damping ratio.

Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Stepped Crystal Surfaces

A primary goal of this dissertation is to understand the links between mathematical models that describe crystal surfaces at three fundamental length scales: The scale of individual atoms, the scale of collections of atoms forming crystal defects, and macroscopic scale. Characterizing connections between different classes of models is a critical task for gaining insight into the physics they describe, a long-standing objective in applied analysis, and also highly relevant in engineering applications. The key concept I use in each problem addressed in this thesis is coarse graining, which is a strategy for connecting fine representations or models with coarser representations. Often this idea is invoked to reduce a large discrete system to an appropriate continuum description, e.g. individual particles are represented by a continuous density. While there is no general theory of coarse graining, one closely related mathematical approach is asymptotic analysis, i.e. the description of limiting behavior as some parameter becomes very large or very small. In the case of crystalline solids, it is natural to consider cases where the number of particles is large or where the lattice spacing is small. Limits such as these often make explicit the nature of links between models capturing different scales, and, once established, provide a means of improving our understanding, or the models themselves. Finding appropriate variables whose limits illustrate the important connections between models is no easy task, however. This is one area where computer simulation is extremely helpful, as it allows us to see the results of complex dynamics and gather clues regarding the roles of different physical quantities. On the other hand, connections between models enable the development of novel multiscale computational schemes, so understanding can assist computation and vice versa. Some of these ideas are demonstrated in this thesis. The important outcomes of this thesis include: (1) a systematic derivation of the step-flow model of Burton, Cabrera, and Frank, with corrections, from an atomistic solid-on-solid-type models in 1+1 dimensions; (2) the inclusion of an atomistically motivated transport mechanism in an island dynamics model allowing for a more detailed account of mound evolution; and (3) the development of a hybrid discrete-continuum scheme for simulating the relaxation of a faceted crystal mound. Central to all of these modeling and simulation efforts is the presence of steps composed of individual layers of atoms on vicinal crystal surfaces. Consequently, a recurring theme in this research is the observation that mesoscale defects play a crucial role in crystal morphological evolution.