Influence of environmental conditions on the age, hatch dates, and growth of juvenile Atlantic menhaden in the Choptank River, MD

Since 1993 Atlantic menhaden has experienced sustained low juvenile production (recruitment) in the Chesapeake Bay. Factors controlling growth, abundance, and mortality of larval and juvenile menhaden change throughout ontogeny such that larval growth rates could carry over to juvenile growth and survival. The effects of winter thermal conditions on the hatch dates and growth of larval and juvenile Atlantic menhaden in Atlantic shelf and Chesapeake Bay habitats were examined using otolith (ear-stone) increment analyses and growth models. For 2010-2013, truncated hatch-date distributions provided evidence for a winter recruitment bottleneck in Atlantic menhaden caused by cold temperatures. Hatch-dates of surviving juveniles were skewed towards warmer months for years characterized by colder temperatures. Reduced larval growth rates, influenced by reduced temperature and food availability, carried over to juvenile growth rates. A growing degree-day model performed well in simulating observed juvenile growth rates in the Choptank River tributary of Chesapeake Bay.

Phase transitions in gene networks evolved under different selection rules

Mathematical models of gene regulation are a powerful tool for understanding the complex features of genetic control. While various modeling efforts have been successful at explaining gene expression dynamics, much less is known about how evolution shapes the structure of these networks. An important feature of gene regulatory networks is their stability in response to environmental perturbations. Regulatory systems are thought to have evolved to exist near the transition between stability and instability, in order to have the required stability to environmental fluctuations while also being able to achieve a wide variety of functions (corresponding to different dynamical patterns). We study a simplified model of gene network evolution in which links are added via different selection rules. These growth models are inspired by recent work on `explosive' percolation which shows that when network links are added through competitive rather than random processes, the connectivity phase transition can be significantly delayed, and when it is reached, it appears to be first order (discontinuous, e.g., going from no failure at all to large expected failure) instead of second order (continuous, e.g., going from no failure at all to very small expected failure). We find that by modifying the traditional framework for networks grown via competitive link addition to capture how gene networks evolve to avoid damage propagation, we also see significant delays in the transition that depend on the selection rules, but the transitions always appear continuous rather than `explosive'.

Development and Application of Predictive Models for Survival, Growth, and Death of Enteric Pathogens in Leafy Greens Supply Chain

Leafy greens are essential part of a healthy diet. Because of their health benefits, production and consumption of leafy greens has increased considerably in the U.S. in the last few decades. However, leafy greens are also associated with a large number of foodborne disease outbreaks in the last few years. The overall goal of this dissertation was to use the current knowledge of predictive models and available data to understand the growth, survival, and death of enteric pathogens in leafy greens at pre- and post-harvest levels. Temperature plays a major role in the growth and death of bacteria in foods. A growth-death model was developed for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy greens for varying temperature conditions typically encountered during supply chain. The developed growth-death models were validated using experimental dynamic time-temperature profiles available in the literature. Furthermore, these growth-death models for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes and a similar model for E. coli O157:H7 were used to predict the growth of these pathogens in leafy greens during transportation without temperature control. Refrigeration of leafy greens meets the purposes of increasing their shelf-life and mitigating the bacterial growth, but at the same time, storage of foods at lower temperature increases the storage cost. Nonlinear programming was used to optimize the storage temperature of leafy greens during supply chain while minimizing the storage cost and maintaining the desired levels of sensory quality and microbial safety. Most of the outbreaks associated with consumption of leafy greens contaminated with E. coli O157:H7 have occurred during July-November in the U.S. A dynamic system model consisting of subsystems and inputs (soil, irrigation, cattle, wildlife, and rainfall) simulating a farm in a major leafy greens producing area in California was developed. The model was simulated incorporating the events of planting, irrigation, harvesting, ground preparation for the new crop, contamination of soil and plants, and survival of E. coli O157:H7. The predictions of this system model are in agreement with the seasonality of outbreaks. This dissertation utilized the growth, survival, and death models of enteric pathogens in leafy greens during production and supply chain.